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GMZ730 Apalachee Bay Or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach To Ochlockonee River Fl Out To 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Suwannee River To Keaton Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 322 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
This afternoon..West winds around 10 knots. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tonight..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north after midnight. Seas around 2 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds. Protected waters a light chop.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots, increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Wednesday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Protected waters choppy.
Wednesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period of 3 seconds. Protected waters a moderate chop.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 1 to 2 feet with a dominant period of 2 seconds in the morning, then 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop.
Thursday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less. Protected waters a light chop.
Friday night..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 foot or less, then around 2 feet with a dominant period of 5 seconds after midnight. Protected waters a light chop.

GMZ700 Synopsis For The Suwannee River To Okaloosa-walton County Line Out To 60 Nm 322 Pm Est Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis..
westerly flow around 10 knots will prevail through the next 24 hours until a passing cold front likely brings advisory level conditions late Tuesday night into Wednesday. No rain is expected with this frontal passage, and advisory level conditions diminish for Thursday as winds become easterly. Another system is likely this upcoming weekend which will bring additional potential for advisory level conditions and possibly a few severe storms.

FXUS62 KTAE 042025 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 325 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY

NEAR TERM
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

A dry, reinforcing cold front will push through the area overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning. This will cause winds to become more northwesterly overnight and bring much cooler and drier air to the region. Low temperatures for tonight will be a little bit tricky as the timing of the front, wind speeds, and cloud cover will all have some influence. For now, have overnight lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s across most of the area. High temperatures tomorrow are forecast in the low to mid 60s with mostly sunny skies.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday night through Wednesday night)
Issued at 232 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

A mostly benign pattern is expected through the middle of the week as the upper level pattern remains progressive. An upper level trough and associated cold front will swing through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. The frontal passage will bring fairly breezy conditions on Wednesday as the surface low off the US eastern seaboard strengthens in response to the passing upper level trough. Expect a cool down with highs around 5 to 10 degrees colder on Wednesday compared to Tuesday. As the surface high settles on Wednesday night into Thursday morning chilly conditions will spread with lows dropping into the low to mid 30s across the region as a good radiational cooling pattern develops.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 232 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

A slow warm up is expected to the end the work week as the upper level trough continues east and southwesterly upper level flow ahead of next system begins to move in. The surface high will translate east into the weekend which will bring increasing southerly flow by the weekend period and an increase in rain chances as our next system approaches.

While it's still too early to the extent of any severe threat, ensembles are indicating the potential for a fairly strong upper level to dig into the southeastern US. Regardless if the severe threat develops, there is high confidence in another wet weekend.
However, with the upper level pattern more progressive, we do not anticipate the rainfall amounts we saw this previous weekend and flooding concerns with this next system remain somewhat low.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE
Issued at 232 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Westerly flow around 10 knots will prevail through the next 24 hours until a passing cold front likely brings advisory level conditions late Tuesday night into Wednesday. No rain is expected with this frontal passage, and advisory level conditions diminish for Thursday as winds become easterly. Another system is likely this upcoming weekend which will bring additional potential for advisory level conditions and possibly a few severe storms.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 232 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

A series of dry cold fronts over the next couple of days will keep conditions cool and dry across the region. High dispersions will be possible Wednesday afternoon in the wake of the second, stronger front. Soils across the region remain very saturated from rainfall over the weekend, and there are no fire weather concerns at this time.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 232 PM EST Mon Dec 4 2023

Most rivers remain below action stage, despite the higher rainfall totals from the previous weekend thanks to antecedent dry conditions. However, some smaller rivers still remain above action stage at the Sopchoppy and Aucilla Rivers. Moderate flooding has occurred at Sopchoppy with minor flooding expected along the Aucilla River at Lamont. The quicker responding Sopchoppy will drop back into action stage in the next 24 to 36 hours while the slower responding Aucilla and Fenholloway/Econfina rivers will either slowly rise or decrease slowly through the next 5 to 7 days remaining around minor flood stage or lower.

No additional riverine concerns are anticipated but additional rainfall is expected this upcoming weekend. The progressive nature of the system should keep rainfall amounts less than 1.5 inches.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 45 64 44 58 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 47 65 46 58 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 40 61 40 55 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 40 62 41 56 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 44 63 43 58 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 48 68 46 61 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 49 64 47 58 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM EST /midnight CST/ Tuesday for FLZ108-112-114.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...None.

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St. Marks
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Mon -- 01:09 AM EST     1.45 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:05 AM EST     2.42 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:53 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:06 PM EST     0.63 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:33 PM EST     2.33 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Marks, St. Marks River, Florida, Tide feet

Shell Point
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Mon -- 12:19 AM EST     1.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:46 AM EST     2.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:17 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:53 PM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 01:24 PM EST     0.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:07 PM EST     2.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Shell Point, Florida, Tide feet

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