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AMZ063 Atlantic From 29n To 31n W Of 77w- 416 Am Est Wed Nov 29 2023
Today..W of 79w, nw to N winds 10 kt. E of 79w, N winds 10 kt in the morning, becoming variable less than 5 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Tonight..W of 79w, nw to N winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable less than 5 kt. E of 79w, variable winds less than 5 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu..Variable winds less than 5 kt, becoming se 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft.
Thu night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..SE winds 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Fri night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat..SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun..SW to W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft in E to se swell.

AMZ005
No data

FXUS62 KCHS 291122 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 622 AM EST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will prevail across the region through Thursday.
The next frontal system should impact the region this weekend into early next week, followed by high pressure by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Today: Overall, a very quiet but chilly day across the forecast area. A surface trough/front will dissipate across the region with expansive high pressure as the primary feature. Skies will be clear the the day, and even under full sun temperatures will be quite chilly. We will begin the day with a cold start thanks to morning lows in the upper 20s across much of the forecast area. Then, model low-level thickness progs only support highs in the 54-57 degree range for afternoon highs. Such values would be around 10 degrees below normal for late November.

Tonight: Another cold night is on tap as high pressure continues to sit across the region. We should see good radiational cooling conditions, though thin cirrus will begin to increase in coverage late in the overnight. The forecast advertises widespread freezing temperatures away from the immediate coastal corridor, with upper 20s expected across the far inland tier. Also, another solid coverage of frost is expected away from the immediate coastal corridor. Regarding possible Frost/Freeze headlines, we will wait and see how temperatures come in Wednesday morning. If a widespread freeze occurs as anticipated then the growing season will be declared over and no additional Frost/Freeze products will be needed.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Thursday: Sfc high pressure will transition offshore, becoming centered across the western Atlantic under a zonal flow aloft.
The day will start off cold with patchy to areas of frost away from the coast within a few hours of sunrise. However, expect temps to warm into the lower 60s by mid afternoon as onshore winds develop along the western periphery of high pressure and well ahead of a low pressure system strengthening across the Central United States. Dry conditions are expected throughout the day, but deeper moisture will begin to advect across the Southeast late night. Overnight lows will be considerably warmer than the previous night, ranging in the low- mid 40s inland to low-mid 50s near the coast.

Friday and Saturday: A low pressure system tracking from the Central United States to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states will keep the Southeast warm-sectored this weekend. However, increasing clouds and precip chances will accompany the change in weather pattern, limiting sfc heating potential. High temps are still expected to reach the lower 70s each day with mild overnight temps ranging in the upper 50s to lower 60s Friday night. Expect shower coverage to increase Friday afternoon into evening as moisture advection results in PWATs around 1.5 inches late day while h5 shortwave energy ripples across the area and a h25 jet nudges closer to the Mid- Atlantic and Southeast.
Persistent south-southwest flow across the region on Saturday will continue to drive moisture levels up locally with PWATs approaching 2.0 inches while mid-upper lvl forcing aloft remain.
Given the setup, expect numerous to widespread showers locally.
A few thunderstorms can not be ruled out across southeast Georgia late Saturday as well. Rainfall amounts between 1-2 inches will be common across the area on Saturday alone.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A wet pattern will remain in place late weekend and into early next week. Mid-upper lvl forcing associated with a series of h5 shortwaves and a strong h25 jet combined with ample moisture should favor scattered to numerous showers locally each day until a cold front sweeps through the area late Monday into Tuesday. There could even be some risk for a few thunderstorms late weekend, but much will depend on cloud cover and precip coverage before peak diurnal heating. Despite rain chances, warm weather is expected to prevail across the region to start off next week. High temps should range in the lower 70s Sunday.
Overnight temps will also be mild, only dipping into the upper 50s/lower 60s Saturday night and mid-upper 50s Sunday night.
High pressure will then return post fropa heading into the middle of next week, favoring drier and cooler conditions. Highs ranging in the low-mid 60s Tuesday should return the mid-upper 50s on Wednesday. Overnight lows should also dip into the mid- upper 30s away from the coast by the middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV through 12z Thursday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through Thursday. Flight restrictions are possible with showers at all terminals Friday afternoon/night, then likely with numerous/widespread showers, low clouds and reduced vsbys at all terminals Saturday into Sunday.

MARINE
Today through tonight: Quiet conditions are expected across the local waters as high pressure prevails across the region. Wind speeds should mostly top out around 10 knots with seas averaging around 2 feet.

Thursday through Monday: High pressure will gradually transition offshore Thursday and Friday while a low pressure system advances across the Central United States to the Mid- Atlantic and Northeast States. As this process unfolds, southerly winds will gradually increase, gusting up to 15-20 kt while seas build to 3-4 ft this weekend. A cold front should then traverse the region late Monday, favoring a slightly stronger gradient across local waters early next week. West winds gusting up to 20-25 kt are possible across a portion of the waters late Monday, but offshore winds should limit seas to 2-4 ft. A Small Craft Advisory could eventually be needed early next week.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for GAZ087-088- 099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ040-042>045- 047>052.
MARINE...None.

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