Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Isle of Palms, SC

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
5:30 PM Update: Forecast remains on track, please see the previous discussion below.

The synoptic pattern across the Southeast U.S. will change little tonight with a deep- layered subtropical anticyclone centered just offshore and Bermuda high pressure extending west across the region. Similar to the past few evenings, the boundary layer will decouple overnight once the sea breeze circulation decays. This will yield a calm/light wind field, especially inland from the immediate coast. Varying degrees of cirrus passing through aloft will persist, which will tend to curtail radiational cooling somewhat. Still, the NBM has been showing a warm bias for the past several nights (especially inland away from the coastal corridor) given the dry ground conditions in place. Lows were once again trended into the colder side of the guidance envelop, ranging from the mid- upper 50s well inland to the upper 60s at the beaches. Conditions will favor another round of shallow ground fog developing just before daybreak. No major impacts are expected, although a few AWOS sites may report vsbys 1SM or less and really representative of prevailing conditions.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
A strong ridge will remain off the Southeast U.S. coast through mid- week. Forecast soundings across the region feature a strong inversion on Monday. Profiles will feature a bit more moisture and weaker capping Tuesday into Wednesday. The forecast will feature greater cloud cover on Tuesday. In addition, on Wednesday, PW will increase to 1.6" between the early afternoon sea breeze and the stationary front. The forecast will indicate SCHC to CHC for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and evening.

High temperatures are forecast to generally range between 85 to 90 degrees each afternoon away from the coast. Coastal temperatures along the beaches expected to peak around 80 degrees. The warmest days should be Tuesday and Wednesday as a cold front remains just north and west of the region. Low temperatures are forecast to favor values from around 60 inland to the mid 60s along the coast.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
As a sea breeze develops on Thursday, convection should develop between the sea breeze and the stationary front. The potential for showers and thunderstorms will be highlighted with SCHC to CHC PoPs Thursday afternoon and evening. Friday into Saturday, an area of low pressure is forecast to organize over the Mid-West, tracking to the NE. The stationary front across the region may drift north or dissipate. By this weekend, the H5 ridge will erode, with a shortwave timed to pass over the region this weekend. At the sfc, a weak cold front may drift over the region on Saturday, possibly remaining into Sunday. Temperatures through the period should remain above normal. High temperatures should generally range in the mid to upper 80s with lows in the low to mid 60s.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Expect VFR conditions to continue into the early overnight period, but similar to the past couple mornings as we get closer to sunrise patchy shallow/ground fog may form (20-25% chance) across inland areas. May thus see some MVFR conditions inland, though increasing cloud coverage aloft may help to limit the formation/areal coverage of any fog. Winds increase after sunrise which will help to mix out any fog, though overall winds remain fairly weak. Expect the sea-breeze to form and move inland right around noon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Gusty winds are possible each afternoon at all terminals with the passage of the sea breeze.
There are no other concerns.

MARINE
Tonight: A southerly wind regime will persist tonight as Bermuda high pressure remains centered well to the east of the local marine area. Winds will remain 10 kt or less with seas 2-3 ft.

Monday through Friday: The weather pattern will generally yield south-southeast winds around 10 kts each day. Winds may remain a bit stronger across the Charleston Harbor and close to the coast each afternoon following the sea breeze. Seas should average 2-3 ft within 20 nm and around 3 ft for the GA waters beyond 20 nm. No marine headlines are expected.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.