Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Isle of Palms, SC
December 11, 2023 1:24 AM EST (06:24 UTC)
Sunrise 7:10AM Sunset 5:15PM Moonrise 5:38AM Moonset 3:57PM
AMZ063 Atlantic From 29n To 31n W Of 77w- 1008 Am Est Sun Dec 10 2023
.gale warning...
.gale conditions possible...
Today..SE to S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers.
Tonight..W of 79w, S to sw winds 25 to 30 kt, shifting to W to nw 25 to 35 kt late. E of 79w, S to sw winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in sw swell. Scattered showers.
Mon..NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in nw swell.
Mon night..N to ne winds 10 to 15 kt W of 79w, and N to ne 15 to 20 kt E of 79w. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Tue night..NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in E swell.
Wed..NE to E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in E to se swell.
Wed night..NE to E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft in E swell.
Thu..NE to E winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft in E swell.
Thu night..E winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft in E swell.
.gale warning...
.gale conditions possible...
Today..SE to S winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers.
Tonight..W of 79w, S to sw winds 25 to 30 kt, shifting to W to nw 25 to 35 kt late. E of 79w, S to sw winds 20 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in sw swell. Scattered showers.
Mon..NW to N winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft in nw swell.
Mon night..N to ne winds 10 to 15 kt W of 79w, and N to ne 15 to 20 kt E of 79w. Seas 6 to 8 ft.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Tue night..NE to E winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 8 ft in E swell.
Wed..NE to E winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft in E to se swell.
Wed night..NE to E winds 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft in E swell.
Thu..NE to E winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft in E swell.
Thu night..E winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft in E swell.
Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC
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FXUS62 KCHS 110601 AFDCHS
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 101 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front will cross the area this evening, followed by high pressure through late this week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 1 AM, wind gusts have continued to decrease in the wake of the cold front. However, gusts may continue between 20-30 mph at times as a band of showers sweeps across the SC Lowcountry.
Winds are expected to decrease steadily after 3 AM. In addition, temperature observations indicate that values range from the upper 40s across inland GA to the mid 50s along the SC coast.
CAA following the front should result in steadily cooling temperatures through the rest of the night. Temperatures appear on pace to reach the upper 30s inland to the mid 40s along the coast.
Lake Winds: Gusty NW winds may continue as the band of showers crosses the lake through late tonight. Lake Wind Advisory has been extended until 4 AM.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Monday: The strong cold front will be well offshore by sunrise Monday with strong post-frontal cold air advection (CAA) in progress. The intensity of the CAA will wane through the day with 850 hPa temperatures settling into the 2-5C range by afternoon. There will be somewhat of a weak downslope component in the lee of the southern Appalachians, but it will still be a chilly day despite full insolation. Highs will only reach within a degree or two of 55 area wide with early breezy conditions gradually diminishing as the day progresses. Sunday night will be a bit chilly under clear skies. The boundary layer may fully decouple across the interior while winds stay up a bit along the coast where the pressure gradient is progged to tighten a bit overnight in response to the center of the surface high bridging the Blue Ridge. Favored the cooler side of the guidance across the interior and closer to the guidance mean at the coast. Lows will range from around 30 well inland adjacent to the CSRA and Southern Midlands to the mid 40s along the beaches where northeast winds will have a bit more of a moderating influence.
Tuesday and Wednesday: High pressure will dominate through this period as a mostly zonal flow prevails aloft. A weak coastal trough will dry and form just offshore by Wednesday, but any associated shower activity should remain well offshore. While the main low-level moisture channel will be directed into Northeast Florida, there could be a gradual increase in cloud cover with some degree of marine-based stratocumulus pushing inland, mainly across the coastal counties (especially coastal Georgia) coupled with thickening cirrus aloft. Temperatures will begin to slowly moderate both days with highs warming into the mid-upper 50s Tuesday with upper 50s/lower 60s Wednesday. Lows Wednesday morning will range from around freezing well inland to the upper 40s/near 50 at the beaches.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Quiet conditions will prevail for much of the week. The forecast becomes a bit more uncertain Friday into Saturday some data suggesting a storm system will develop over the Gulf of Mexico and impact parts of the Southeast U.S. coast during the upcoming weekend. The forecast was closely aligned with the 10/13z NBM for now until trends can become better established.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Prior to the 6Z TAFs: KCLX detected a broad band of rain in the wake of the cold front. KSAV should see rain end near the beginning of the 6Z TAFs. IR satellite indicated a band of MVFR ceiling on the western edge of the cloud shield. These cigs may pass over KSAV between 7-9Z, highlighted with a TEMPO. KCHS and KJZI will likely see MVFR vis during light to moderate rain until 7Z. Rounds of MVFR ceilings may remain until late tonight, expected to become VFR by 11Z. Gusty NW winds should continue during the rainfall, then steady NNW winds expected through the daylight hours.
Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no concerns at this time.
MARINE
Rest of tonight: A line of showers along and ahead of the approaching cold front is producing wind gusts of around 40 knots across land areas. We should see some higher gusts across the coastal waters, and gusts up to 45 knots will be possible for a narrow window of time late this evening through the early morning hours. We have expanded the Gale Warning to include Charleston Harbor as well to account for these stronger gusts.
Monday through Friday: Conditions will rapidly improve across the marine area Monday as high pressure builds in from the west and post- frontal CAA wanes. A modest northeast flow event will develop by mid-week as the pressure gradient tightens in response to sprawling high pressure building into North Carolina and the formation of a subtle coastal trough just offshore.
Both winds and seas will respond with a return to Small Craft Advisory levels possibly as early as Wednesday which will likely linger into Friday.
EQUIPMENT
KCLX remains operational, but level 2 data is not being distributed to external users due to an internal hardware failure. We are still awaiting the arrival of new parts to resolve this problem. Until then, level 2 data will not be available. Radar data is available for all connected AWIPS users. Level 3 data is also available for some external users.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for SCZ045.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 3 AM EST early this morning for AMZ330-350- 352-354.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for AMZ374.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 101 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023
SYNOPSIS
A strong cold front will cross the area this evening, followed by high pressure through late this week.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
As of 1 AM, wind gusts have continued to decrease in the wake of the cold front. However, gusts may continue between 20-30 mph at times as a band of showers sweeps across the SC Lowcountry.
Winds are expected to decrease steadily after 3 AM. In addition, temperature observations indicate that values range from the upper 40s across inland GA to the mid 50s along the SC coast.
CAA following the front should result in steadily cooling temperatures through the rest of the night. Temperatures appear on pace to reach the upper 30s inland to the mid 40s along the coast.
Lake Winds: Gusty NW winds may continue as the band of showers crosses the lake through late tonight. Lake Wind Advisory has been extended until 4 AM.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Monday: The strong cold front will be well offshore by sunrise Monday with strong post-frontal cold air advection (CAA) in progress. The intensity of the CAA will wane through the day with 850 hPa temperatures settling into the 2-5C range by afternoon. There will be somewhat of a weak downslope component in the lee of the southern Appalachians, but it will still be a chilly day despite full insolation. Highs will only reach within a degree or two of 55 area wide with early breezy conditions gradually diminishing as the day progresses. Sunday night will be a bit chilly under clear skies. The boundary layer may fully decouple across the interior while winds stay up a bit along the coast where the pressure gradient is progged to tighten a bit overnight in response to the center of the surface high bridging the Blue Ridge. Favored the cooler side of the guidance across the interior and closer to the guidance mean at the coast. Lows will range from around 30 well inland adjacent to the CSRA and Southern Midlands to the mid 40s along the beaches where northeast winds will have a bit more of a moderating influence.
Tuesday and Wednesday: High pressure will dominate through this period as a mostly zonal flow prevails aloft. A weak coastal trough will dry and form just offshore by Wednesday, but any associated shower activity should remain well offshore. While the main low-level moisture channel will be directed into Northeast Florida, there could be a gradual increase in cloud cover with some degree of marine-based stratocumulus pushing inland, mainly across the coastal counties (especially coastal Georgia) coupled with thickening cirrus aloft. Temperatures will begin to slowly moderate both days with highs warming into the mid-upper 50s Tuesday with upper 50s/lower 60s Wednesday. Lows Wednesday morning will range from around freezing well inland to the upper 40s/near 50 at the beaches.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
Quiet conditions will prevail for much of the week. The forecast becomes a bit more uncertain Friday into Saturday some data suggesting a storm system will develop over the Gulf of Mexico and impact parts of the Southeast U.S. coast during the upcoming weekend. The forecast was closely aligned with the 10/13z NBM for now until trends can become better established.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Prior to the 6Z TAFs: KCLX detected a broad band of rain in the wake of the cold front. KSAV should see rain end near the beginning of the 6Z TAFs. IR satellite indicated a band of MVFR ceiling on the western edge of the cloud shield. These cigs may pass over KSAV between 7-9Z, highlighted with a TEMPO. KCHS and KJZI will likely see MVFR vis during light to moderate rain until 7Z. Rounds of MVFR ceilings may remain until late tonight, expected to become VFR by 11Z. Gusty NW winds should continue during the rainfall, then steady NNW winds expected through the daylight hours.
Extended Aviation Outlook: There are no concerns at this time.
MARINE
Rest of tonight: A line of showers along and ahead of the approaching cold front is producing wind gusts of around 40 knots across land areas. We should see some higher gusts across the coastal waters, and gusts up to 45 knots will be possible for a narrow window of time late this evening through the early morning hours. We have expanded the Gale Warning to include Charleston Harbor as well to account for these stronger gusts.
Monday through Friday: Conditions will rapidly improve across the marine area Monday as high pressure builds in from the west and post- frontal CAA wanes. A modest northeast flow event will develop by mid-week as the pressure gradient tightens in response to sprawling high pressure building into North Carolina and the formation of a subtle coastal trough just offshore.
Both winds and seas will respond with a return to Small Craft Advisory levels possibly as early as Wednesday which will likely linger into Friday.
EQUIPMENT
KCLX remains operational, but level 2 data is not being distributed to external users due to an internal hardware failure. We are still awaiting the arrival of new parts to resolve this problem. Until then, level 2 data will not be available. Radar data is available for all connected AWIPS users. Level 3 data is also available for some external users.
CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for SCZ045.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 3 AM EST early this morning for AMZ330-350- 352-354.
Gale Warning until 6 AM EST early this morning for AMZ374.
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Airport Reports
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