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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 933 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
.small craft advisory in effect from Sunday evening through Monday morning...
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds in the afternoon. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Tonight..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop.
Sunday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West winds 20 to 25 knots, becoming northwest after midnight. Gusts up to 40 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 6 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. Showers, mainly in the evening.
Monday..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts up to 35 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters rough.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 2 to 4 feet with a dominant period 5 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 20 to 25 knots, diminishing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 feet.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 6 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 5 to 7 feet. A slight chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 933 Pm Est Sat Dec 9 2023
Synopsis..
low stratus and patchy fog may develop in the nearshore coastal waters especially from mayport northward overnight. High pressure will move farther east tonight as a frontal system approaches from the west. Between these features winds will shift southwesterly and strengthen to small craft advisory levels during the late morning and early afternoon Sunday before Thunderstorms associated with the front arrive during the early evening hours. These storms will be capable of strong winds and possibly isolated waterspouts. Winds abruptly shift northwesterly behind the front and strengthen with gusts to gale force likely. High pressure builds from the west then to the north next week and will set up a prolonged northeasterly winds. These winds are expected to strengthen and build dangerous seas next week as gulf low approaches southwest florida.

Gulf stream..
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of dec 09, 2023 at 1200 utc...
50 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 53 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 61 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 78 nautical miles east of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 100641 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 141 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 141 AM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Periods of LIFR conditions will be possible through around sunrise at VQQ, GNV, and SSI. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at the regional terminals overnight. Lower stratus cloudiness will develop around or shortly after sunrise, with prevailing MVFR ceilings expected at the terminals through around noon. Ceilings should lift to VFR during the early afternoon hours as southerly surface winds strengthen. A squall line of showers and strong thunderstorms will then approach the terminals after 18Z, with periods of IFR conditions likely during heavier downpours and wind gusts of 30-40 knots possible within stronger storms from 19Z through around 01Z. Lingering showers and isolated thunderstorms should exit the terminals before 05Z, with a period of prevailing IFR ceilings expected through around the end of the TAF period before skies clear from west to east during the predawn hours on Monday. Southerly surface winds sustained at 5-10 knots overnight will increase to 10-15 knots before noon, with winds then shifting to south-southwesterly and increasing to 15-20 knots and gusty during the mid-afternoon hours immediately ahead of the approaching squall line. Surface winds will then shift to westerly towards 00Z and then northwesterly before 06Z Monday, with speeds remaining in the 15-20 knot range and gusty.

UPDATE
Issued at 850 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

No significant updates to the forecast tonight with mild and increasing cloud cover (low stratus) developing ahead of an approaching cold front. Temperatures will only lower 3-5 more degrees tonight, keeping morning temps in the low to mid 60s.

Moist airmass situated across the area will yield a potential for fog development; however, boundary winds will be elevated enough to disrupt attempts of fog development. For areas where fog develops it should be patchy and transient in nature and mainly inland where winds may trend toward calm.

For Sunday, the aforementioned front will bring the potential for strong and isolated severe t'storms to the NE FL and SE GA Sunday afternoon and early evening as it progresses west to east. The primary threat will be straight-line winds and isolated tornadoes.
We urge partners and public stakeholders to pay attention to the forecast tomorrow and have multiple ways to receive weather alerts.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 251 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

The main story during this period will be strong to isolated severe thunderstorm potential across NE FL and SE GA associated with a frontal boundary moving southeastward through the region on Sunday. Southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching front will rise PWATs over 1.5 inches and allow high temperatures to reach the 70s area-wide to near 80 degrees in north central Florida. The unstable air mass will allow for isolated pop-up thunderstorms across NE FL and SE GA prior to the more organized pre-frontal line of convection reaching the interior SE GA counties late Sunday morning. Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will be embedded in this quick moving line, with the main threats being damaging gusty winds across NE FL and SE GA, and potential for an isolated tornado, mainly north of I-10. The Storm Prediction Center has placed SE GA and NE FL in a Marginal Risk for severe storms Sunday, forecast soundings are indicating decent MLCAPE, with effective bulk shear values around 40 knots and dewpoints above 60 degrees. In addition, there may be some pockets of locally heavy rainfall, mainly near the Suwanee valley. Most of inland NE FL and SE GA will see the main timing of convection in the afternoon to evening. The convective line will hit the coastal areas later in the day, and most storms will likely be offshore around midnight.

The front will move through Florida overnight Sunday into Monday, leaving a wake of dry air and much cooler temperatures. Highs Monday will only reach the mid to upper 50s over most of SE GA and NE FL, with a few lucky spots in north central Florida hitting 60 degrees as breezy northwesterly winds advect cold air southward.
Monday night low temperatures will plummet to just near or above freezing across inland SE GA, a light freeze will be possible far inland SE GA, with a significant potential for inland frost. Along the coast and north central Florida will have low temps staying at or above 40 degrees.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 251 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Dry, cool weather will continue mid-week, with highs Tuesday and Wednesday ranging from the upper 50s to lower 70s as high pressure builds to the north. An elevated onshore wind event will develop mid-week and last through the end of this period, allowing moisture to return to the area. Temperatures will gradually rise each day this week to near normal by Friday. Some models are indicating a Gulf low forming later this week and sweeping across Florida Friday into Saturday, bringing precipitation potential across the region, but confidence is low at this time on details.

MARINE
Issued at 251 PM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

South to southeast winds will become southerly tonight as a cold front begins to approach the region from the west with showers and isolated thunderstorms mainly over the offshore waters through tonight. Sunday, south southwesterly winds will increase to caution levels offshore as the front slides east towards coastal waters from the west with showers and thunderstorms increasing in coverage by the afternoon and early evening hours. The cold front will pass through the coastal waters after midnight with drier conditions by sunrise. Breezy southwest winds will shift to the northwest in the wake of the front with a Small craft advisory in place from Sunday evening into late Monday morning. Occasional gusts to gale force will be possible over the offshore waters.
High pressure will build into the southeast states Monday and then build north and east into the Carolina coast by the middle of next week. Northerly winds Monday and Monday night will turn northeasterly Tuesday and increase in strength again by late Tuesday into the day Wednesday as high pressure rebuilds to the north through the end of next week.

Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents is in effect for northeast florida and southeast georgia beaches through this evening and again on Sunday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 251 PM EST Sat Dec 9 202

Heavy rainfall amounts of 1.0 to 1.5 inches is expected over the Suwannee Valley of northeast florida and much of inland Southeast Georgia with lesser amounts under 1 inch generally east of highway 301. Locally heavier amounts up to 2 to 3 inches are possible over far inland areas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 72 36 54 34 / 100 80 0 0 SSI 72 40 57 45 / 80 80 0 0 JAX 77 40 57 41 / 80 70 0 0 SGJ 77 42 59 47 / 50 80 0 0 GNV 77 40 58 40 / 80 70 0 0 OCF 78 41 59 41 / 60 60 0 0

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ450-452-454.

Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Monday for AMZ470-472-474.

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Bailey Cut
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:04 AM EST     0.74 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 03:49 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:50 AM EST     7.02 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:52 PM EST     0.98 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:57 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:59 PM EST     6.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bailey Cut, 0.8 mile west of, Satilla River, Georgia, Tide feet

St. Johns River Entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:52 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:48 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:46 AM EST     2.23 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:00 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:33 AM EST     -1.54 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 02:51 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 02:57 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:10 PM EST     1.62 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 05:24 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 07:55 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 10:29 PM EST     -1.72 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

St. Johns River Entrance, Florida Current (3), knots

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


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