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FXUS64 KSJT 021740 AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1140 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 225 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

An upper-level shortwave will approach the area and move through today. There will be pretty decent lift ahead of the trough, leading to increased cloud cover and possible rain chances this morning and early afternoon. The increased mid and upper level moisture ahead of the trough, along with the lift, will provide a slight chance for rain. However, lower levels will be drier and could allow for evaporation of light rain before it hits the ground. As the column becomes more saturated as the rain evaporates, precipitation could start to reach the surface, but any accumulations are expected to be very light.

Another weak front, associated with the shortwave, will move through the area this afternoon. Stronger west winds will follow the passage of this boundary starting around noon, with sustained winds possibly reaching 20+ mph with gusts of 30+ mph in our northwestern counties.
Drier air will move in behind the system as well, leaving skies mostly clear for much of the afternoon. The clearer skies and west winds will allow for increased heating and another day of above normal temperatures. Winds are expected to die down tonight. The weak winds combined with clear skies, could lead to a nice setup for radiational cooling. Lows will generally be in the mid to upper 30s, but some areas could drop to near freezing.

LONG TERM
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 207 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Models are in good agreement in showing much of the southern Plains in a dry pattern with slightly above normal temperatures for Sunday into Monday. Westerly winds will likely pick up to 15-20 MPH on Sunday afternoon as a mid-level shortwave trough will pass just north of the region. Some downslope flow on Sunday afternoon may cause high temperatures to spike into the mid 70s. This feature will also push a cold front into west Texas late Sunday evening. The resulting cooler airmass behind the front should help temperatures Sunday night to dip down to the mid-30s. Ideal radiational cooling conditions of clear skies and light winds that night may allow some low-lying locations to drop below freezing on Monday morning.

As we move into the start of the work week, the upper-levels look to transition to more of a split-flow pattern in the jet stream across the southern Plains. A back-door frontal boundary looks to dip into the region on Tuesday. However, this looks like it will have little to no effect on temperatures as southerly flow will resume rather quickly. Otherwise, dry and warm conditions look to continue for the region through at least the middle of next week. Towards the end of next week, some moisture return ahead of a slightly stronger mid- level trough may introduce some rain chances. However, confidence in this solution is fairly low at this time, so rain chances were kept under 20 percent.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1139 AM CST Sat Dec 2 2023

Expect VFR conditions for the next 24 hours. Expect gusty west winds at the terminals this afternoon, with around 25 knots at the KSJT/KABI terminals. The winds will rapidly decrease by sunset.



PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Abilene 71 40 71 36 / 20 0 0 0 San Angelo 72 38 70 37 / 10 0 0 0 Junction 73 37 72 37 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 70 35 70 37 / 10 0 0 0 Sweetwater 66 40 69 37 / 10 0 0 0 Ozona 68 37 69 38 / 10 0 0 0 Brady 72 40 71 39 / 10 0 0 0

SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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San Angelo, TX,