Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Christoval, TX

SHORT TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 353 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

...Slight risk of Severe storms tonight in the Big Country/Concho Valley and slight risk Saturday across all of West Central Texas...

A dryline will move along an Ozona to San Angelo to Abilene line this evening. Short range models indicate scattered thunderstorms developing mainly after 7 PM from the Northern Concho Valley (Sterling City/Robert Lee) north to Sweetwater and Roby, then moving northeast to Abilene, Haskell and Throckmorton as an upper disturbance moves over. Considerable mid and upper level cloudiness may limit heating this afternoon, but moisture and instability had returned with dew points in the upper 50s to lower 60s, along with deep layer shear (0-6KM bulk shear was greater than 50 KTS). Large hail and damaging winds will be possible if storms develop, along with hail 2-3 inch diameter. SPC also outlined a 2 percent (low potential) for a tornado. A second band of scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop along the dryline toward/after midnight and move eastward overnight across West Central Texas into Saturday morning, as another disturbance moves aloft.

A slight risk of severe storms expands across all of West Central Texas Saturday. While there may be scattered storms in the morning, with heating, strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon. A weak cold front/dry line triple point may develop in the NW Concho Valley/western Big Country and focus development in the afternoon, with a stronger cold front/pacific cold front moving through later in the night. Deep layer shear and strong instability will again be available for severe storm development. Again hail 2 to 3 inch diameter possible. SPC increases the tornado potential to 5 percent (more of a medium potential) Saturday.

LONG TERM
(Saturday night through next Friday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Thunderstorm chances will persist and are expected to increase in coverage across the area Saturday evening and overnight, as large-scale ascent increases with the upper trough entering west Texas. Strong to severe storms should be ongoing early Saturday evening and focused along and just north of a surface cold front that will be draped across the area. Latest CAMs show the front as far south as the northern Concho Valley by early evening, with most of the convection along and north of the front across the Big Country. Elevated storms north of the boundary will be capable of producing large to very large hail due to steep lapse rates. Although CAMs show most of the evening activity along and north of the front, any storms that develop in the warm sector south of the front and east of a developing dryline to our southwest will likely be severe, with large to very large hail possible. In addition, an isolated tornado is also possible, especially with any storms that are able to latch onto the front.

Thunderstorms are expected to increase in areal coverage during the late evening and overnight hours Saturday, as the upper trough continues east and the cold front shifts south. Storms are expected to become more linear by this time and pose both a hail and wind threat as the line moves east across the area. In addition to the severe potential, heavy rainfall is possible during the evening and overnight hours, which may lead to some flooding concerns. The greatest flooding threat will be across the Big Country and northern Heartland counties where the greater coverage of storms is expected. Showers and storms are expected to be east of the area by daybreak Easter morning, with decreasing clouds and pleasant temperatures by afternoon, with highs in the 70s.

Dry and pleasant weather is expected on Monday, with highs mainly in the lower 80s. Unsettled weather returns by mid to late week, as southwest flow aloft develops and a series of disturbances moves across the area. Rain chances remain in the forecast Tuesday night through the end of the week.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 602 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025

Chances for thunderstorms will increase after 02Z and continue through at least 12Z Saturday for some locations. Any storm that moves through a terminal area will be short-lived but could produce large hail and strong wind shear. Lower ceilings possible by morning, especially if there are lingering showers. Otherwise, gusty winds after 18Z Saturday with low to medium chances for more thunderstorms through 00Z.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Abilene 65 79 54 73 / 50 80 100 10 San Angelo 63 85 51 76 / 60 60 90 10 Junction 63 85 53 79 / 70 50 90 30 Brownwood 63 82 54 77 / 70 80 100 30 Sweetwater 64 78 52 72 / 40 70 90 10 Ozona 63 83 51 77 / 60 40 90 10 Brady 64 82 55 75 / 70 60 90 30

SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.