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FXUS64 KSJT 100504 AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1104 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1238 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Gusty north winds will become light by morning as surface high pressure build directly over West Texas. Went slightly lower than NBM lows for tonight, closer to GFS MOS temperatures, given clear skies and lighter winds. Sunny but cool for the rest of Sunday, with highs mainly in the mid 50s along with west to northwest winds around 4 to 8 mph.

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Saturday)
Issued at 121 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Mild temperatures are forecast across West Central Texas Monday and Tuesday, with highs near seasonal normals. Expect highs in the low to mid 60s for most locations with morning lows generally in the 30s.

An upper level trough will move onshore the Pacific Northwest on Monday, then strengthen and dive south across the Intermountain West on Tuesday. Tuesday night into Wednesday, an upper level low will develop across the Desert Southwest and then approach the Southern Plains Thursday into Friday. Models have come into better agreement with respect to the track and timing of this low , but there continue to be some differences between the ECMWF and GFS. Either way, a wet and cool pattern is looking likely for the middle to latter part of next week. The eventual track of the aforementioned low will determine exactly when and where the better rain chances will be, but at this point the better rain chances look to be Wednesday through Thursday night. Expect cool conditions with highs generally in the 50s and rounds of light to moderate rainfall.
Overnight lows will generally be in the 40s. Rainfall totals through this period will generally be between 1 and 1.5 inches, although some higher and lower amounts are possible. This rainfall will be welcome, especially in December which tends to be our driest month of the year. The upper level low is then forecast to shift east of the area on Friday, with rain chances ending from west to east. Cool and dry conditions are then forecast on Saturday, with highs in the mid 50s.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1058 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

Breezy northerly winds have mostly diminished to light and variable winds, which will persist through Sunday morning before shifting to the southwest. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected to persist through the next 24 hours across all terminals.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Abilene 26 57 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 26 57 33 65 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 30 57 28 65 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 29 55 27 65 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 27 55 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 28 55 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 29 55 34 65 / 0 0 0 0

SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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San Angelo, TX,