Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Christoval, TX
April 25, 2024 5:25 PM CDT (22:25 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 7:00 AM Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 9:18 PM Moonset 6:49 AM |
Area Discussion for - San Angelo, TX
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FXUS64 KSJT 252101 CCB AFDSJT
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 354 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
New LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
...The main concern in the short term is severe weather chances tonight...
A somewhat complicated forecast on tap for tonight with potentially two areas of thunderstorms developing late tonight and affecting much of the area. Currently, there is an upper level low moving northeast from northern AZ that will make its way into the northern central plains by Friday morning. Upper level shortwave energy will rotate around this low through our area tonight with an attendant 500mb speed max as well. In the lower levels, a stout LLJ of 40 to 50 knots is expected to develop after sunset. At the surface, we continue to have southerly winds keeping the surface air mass moist and unstable. The dryline is also expected to tighten up to our west this afternoon.
For late this afternoon, a few of the short range CAMs have indicated the possibility of an isolated storm developing just west of the Concho Valley, and moving east/northeast into the western and northern Concho Valley this evening.
Later tonight (likely after Midnight), as the previously mentioned upper level low and shortwave energy/speed max moves east into our area, a Pacific cold front/dryline will also become organized and move into our area. This should result in one or two linear cluster of thunderstorms developing around midnight tonight. There is higher confidence in a line of storms developing along and north of Interstate 20 west of Sweetwater, and moving east northeast through the Big Country, with the southern extent of this line near the I-20 corridor. There is lesser confidence in a second line developing in the western Concho Valley and moving east through the Concho Valley and into the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country areas. With either line of storms, all modes of severe weather will be possible, including hail of up to 2.5 inches, damaging wind gusts over 60 mph, and isolated tornadoes.
Storms are expected to largely move out of the area by 9 AM or possibly a little earlier, with skies clearing from west to east throughout the day. Temperatures will warm into the mid 80s to near 90.
LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Severe thunderstorms possible again Saturday and Saturday night
Low-level moisture will make a quick return across our area Friday night, out ahead of another upper low and trough which will drop southeast into the Four Corners area by Saturday morning. The upper low will move east into southeastern Colorado by late Saturday afternoon, with a trough extending south across New Mexico. The approach of this system will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day Saturday, but how much development is uncertain. At this time, we have medium (40-60 percent) PoPs across the Big Country in the morning, with these PoPs extending south to the Brady and San Saba areas in the afternoon.
The area generally east of a line from Aspermont to Sweetwater to San Angelo to Sonora will have a risk of severe storms Saturday and Saturday night. The forecast instability and shear profiles will be supportive of severe storms with damaging winds, large to very large hail and some tornadoes. The tornado threat may increase Saturday evening, with a potential for a strong tornado as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level shear increases.
The dryline will be near our western border counties by mid-to-late afternoon. Should have scattered thunderstorms develop on the dryline and move into western parts of the Big Country and possibly northwestern Concho Valley Saturday evening. The aforementioned upper trough is forecast to lift northeast to near the Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska border by daybreak Sunday, with a trough extending south across the Texas Panhandle. With this setup, weak Pacific front will overtake the dryline and move east into our area Saturday night. Indications are for a extensive band of thunderstorms to quickly develop along the Pacific front/dryline and move east across much of our area overnight into early Sunday morning. In addition to the severe weather threat, heavy rainfall with a localized flooding threat will be possible.
The overall weather for Sunday looks similar to Friday, with the weak Pacific front moving east of our area and a possible lingering chance of showers and storms in our eastern and southeastern counties in the morning. Skies will be clearing from the west with warm and drier conditions in the afternoon and highs mostly in the 80s. Early next week looks warm with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees Monday and Tuesday. Low-level moisture returns but should have minimal rain chances. We have chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, when an upper shortwave trough may move northeast into the area.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Currently, we have MVFR ceilings at KJCT, KBBD, and KSOA, with VFR at KABI and KSJT. Expect all sites to improve to VFR in the next couple hours. MVFR ceilings should move back into the area between 03Z and 06Z tonight. In addition, a line of thunderstorms, some possibly severe, are expected to move through the region tonight after Midnight. So, have kept the VCTS in at most sites, but have also added some PROB30 groups for TSRA at KSJT and KABI tonight between 09Z and 12Z. Once this line of storms moves through the area, expect conditions to improve to VFR between 12Z and 16Z Friday morning.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Abilene 63 86 63 81 / 70 10 10 50 San Angelo 64 89 63 89 / 60 10 10 20 Junction 68 92 67 89 / 30 20 0 20 Brownwood 66 87 65 79 / 70 60 10 50 Sweetwater 62 85 62 85 / 60 0 10 40 Ozona 64 88 65 88 / 40 0 10 10 Brady 67 87 67 81 / 50 30 10 30
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 354 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
New LONG TERM
SHORT TERM
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 220 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
...The main concern in the short term is severe weather chances tonight...
A somewhat complicated forecast on tap for tonight with potentially two areas of thunderstorms developing late tonight and affecting much of the area. Currently, there is an upper level low moving northeast from northern AZ that will make its way into the northern central plains by Friday morning. Upper level shortwave energy will rotate around this low through our area tonight with an attendant 500mb speed max as well. In the lower levels, a stout LLJ of 40 to 50 knots is expected to develop after sunset. At the surface, we continue to have southerly winds keeping the surface air mass moist and unstable. The dryline is also expected to tighten up to our west this afternoon.
For late this afternoon, a few of the short range CAMs have indicated the possibility of an isolated storm developing just west of the Concho Valley, and moving east/northeast into the western and northern Concho Valley this evening.
Later tonight (likely after Midnight), as the previously mentioned upper level low and shortwave energy/speed max moves east into our area, a Pacific cold front/dryline will also become organized and move into our area. This should result in one or two linear cluster of thunderstorms developing around midnight tonight. There is higher confidence in a line of storms developing along and north of Interstate 20 west of Sweetwater, and moving east northeast through the Big Country, with the southern extent of this line near the I-20 corridor. There is lesser confidence in a second line developing in the western Concho Valley and moving east through the Concho Valley and into the Heartland and Northwest Hill Country areas. With either line of storms, all modes of severe weather will be possible, including hail of up to 2.5 inches, damaging wind gusts over 60 mph, and isolated tornadoes.
Storms are expected to largely move out of the area by 9 AM or possibly a little earlier, with skies clearing from west to east throughout the day. Temperatures will warm into the mid 80s to near 90.
LONG TERM
(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 353 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Severe thunderstorms possible again Saturday and Saturday night
Low-level moisture will make a quick return across our area Friday night, out ahead of another upper low and trough which will drop southeast into the Four Corners area by Saturday morning. The upper low will move east into southeastern Colorado by late Saturday afternoon, with a trough extending south across New Mexico. The approach of this system will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms during the day Saturday, but how much development is uncertain. At this time, we have medium (40-60 percent) PoPs across the Big Country in the morning, with these PoPs extending south to the Brady and San Saba areas in the afternoon.
The area generally east of a line from Aspermont to Sweetwater to San Angelo to Sonora will have a risk of severe storms Saturday and Saturday night. The forecast instability and shear profiles will be supportive of severe storms with damaging winds, large to very large hail and some tornadoes. The tornado threat may increase Saturday evening, with a potential for a strong tornado as the low-level jet strengthens and low-level shear increases.
The dryline will be near our western border counties by mid-to-late afternoon. Should have scattered thunderstorms develop on the dryline and move into western parts of the Big Country and possibly northwestern Concho Valley Saturday evening. The aforementioned upper trough is forecast to lift northeast to near the Colorado/Kansas/Nebraska border by daybreak Sunday, with a trough extending south across the Texas Panhandle. With this setup, weak Pacific front will overtake the dryline and move east into our area Saturday night. Indications are for a extensive band of thunderstorms to quickly develop along the Pacific front/dryline and move east across much of our area overnight into early Sunday morning. In addition to the severe weather threat, heavy rainfall with a localized flooding threat will be possible.
The overall weather for Sunday looks similar to Friday, with the weak Pacific front moving east of our area and a possible lingering chance of showers and storms in our eastern and southeastern counties in the morning. Skies will be clearing from the west with warm and drier conditions in the afternoon and highs mostly in the 80s. Early next week looks warm with highs in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees Monday and Tuesday. Low-level moisture returns but should have minimal rain chances. We have chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, when an upper shortwave trough may move northeast into the area.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024
Currently, we have MVFR ceilings at KJCT, KBBD, and KSOA, with VFR at KABI and KSJT. Expect all sites to improve to VFR in the next couple hours. MVFR ceilings should move back into the area between 03Z and 06Z tonight. In addition, a line of thunderstorms, some possibly severe, are expected to move through the region tonight after Midnight. So, have kept the VCTS in at most sites, but have also added some PROB30 groups for TSRA at KSJT and KABI tonight between 09Z and 12Z. Once this line of storms moves through the area, expect conditions to improve to VFR between 12Z and 16Z Friday morning.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Abilene 63 86 63 81 / 70 10 10 50 San Angelo 64 89 63 89 / 60 10 10 20 Junction 68 92 67 89 / 30 20 0 20 Brownwood 66 87 65 79 / 70 60 10 50 Sweetwater 62 85 62 85 / 60 0 10 40 Ozona 64 88 65 88 / 40 0 10 10 Brady 67 87 67 81 / 50 30 10 30
SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KSJT SAN ANGELO RGNL/MATHIS FIELD,TX | 19 sm | 34 min | S 14G22 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 81°F | 64°F | 58% | 29.78 |
San Angelo, TX,
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