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FXUS64 KSJT 110430 AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1030 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 125 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Winds were light this afternoon as surface high pressure was moving into South Texas. Look for winds to gradually shift the the southwest and south at 5 to 10 mph tonight and Monday. The best radiational cooling areas tonight will be valley areas in the NW Hill Country and Heartland, where a few areas may fall into the upper 20s. Outside of the low lying areas, lows will be mainly in the 30 to 35 degree range. Monday will see a warming trend back to highs in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM
(Monday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

...Heavy Rain Possible For Thursday and Friday With Potential For Localized Flooding...

Conditions will continue to warm up on Tuesday with increasing southerly flow at the surface and southwest flow at the mid-levels.
For mid to late week, a pattern change is expected. The good news? Temperatures will remain well above freezing during this entire time period so no winter weather is expected. The bad news? Heavy rain could become a concern, especially Thursday and Thursday night. At this point, models are in good agreement in showing an upper-level low digging in across the Desert Southwest Tuesday night through Thursday. Southeasterly flow in the low levels ahead of this system should bring a good fetch of moisture from the Gulf of Mexico across south and west Texas on Wednesday. Models indicate PWAT values around 1 inch from Wednesday through Friday with persistent moisture feed expected. The upper low should progress southeastward across Texas Thursday night through Saturday. Strong upper-level support from the left exit region of the jet streak and diffluent flow ahead of the upper-level low. Given the timing of the best support aloft, he best chance for heavy rain will be Thursday and Friday with 1 to 2 inches possible. WPC is also hinting at 2-3 inches of rain for the entire event. In this scenario, rain chances would start to wind down by Saturday, as the system moves into the Gulf. This should be followed by quieter weather for the rest of the weekend.
As always, forecasting dynamic upper-level lows can be challenging several days out, so the timing and amount of heavy rain will likely change over the next couple of days.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1015 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds less than 10 kts will vary between the southwest and southeast over the time period.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Abilene 34 66 37 62 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 32 66 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 29 66 37 63 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 28 64 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 35 63 38 60 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 30 61 38 58 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 32 65 37 62 / 0 0 0 0

SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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San Angelo, TX,