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FXUS64 KFWD 041808 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1208 PM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

New Short Term, Aviation

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Tuesday/

Nice and quiet weather to start off the new work week. After a cool Monday morning with lows in the 30s and 40s, temperatures will rise to the low to mid 60s this afternoon. The surface high pressure system bringing sunny skies and light winds today will gradually shift to the east this evening. With clear skies and light winds in the forecast for tonight, temperatures will fall into the mid 30s to low 40s by Tuesday morning.

Another weak cold front will arrive during the day tomorrow, with little to no effect other than a wind shift to the north. Without any significant cold air moving into our area, temperatures will warm up into 60s in the afternoon under sunny skies.

Sanchez

LONG TERM
/Issued 230 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023/ /Tuesday Night and Beyond/

Surface winds will lighten Tuesday night behind the cold front that moved through North and Central Texas during the day. With clear skies, expect another chilly night with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s across much of the region, possibly approaching freezing near the Red River. East-northeasterly winds will linger longer into Wednesday across our east and an area of slightly stronger cold advection will develop late Tuesday night across the eastern half of the CWA allowing for slightly cooler afternoon highs on Wednesday, primarily east of I-35. By Wednesday night, surface high pressure will shift to the east beginning a period of warm/moist advection over North and Central Texas through the end of the work week. Expect afternoon highs in the 70s to near 80 degrees, surface dewpoints inching into the mid 50s to low 60s, and increasing cloud cover by the Thu-Fri timeframe.
Additionally, wind speeds could approach Wind Advisory criteria Thu-Fri as low pressure deepens in the Plains ahead of a shortwave trough expected to dive southeast from the Pacific Northwest to the Southern Plains toward the end of the week. Southerly surface winds at 15-25 mph could gust to 30-35 mph at times Thursday and Friday.

Rain chances could return as soon as Friday night as a 40kt low- level jet rooted at ~850mb interacts with increasing low-level moisture, primarily across our far eastern zones. More widespread rain chances are expected over the weekend as the aforementioned trough and associated frontal system enter the Southern Plains.
Model guidance has trended toward a faster, more progressive system with nearly 70% of the most recent suite of ensembles (largely driven by the GEFS and CMC members) suggesting an early Saturday morning FROPA. The remaining ~30% of ensemble members continue to suggest that a Saturday evening/night FROPA will take place. We will keep the weekend PoPs at 20-40% generally along and east of the I-35 corridor where the plume of low-level moisture is expected to reside. The speed of this frontal passage, limited instability, and dry mid- to upper-level air aloft (keeping PWATs below 1.1-1.2") will likely keep rainfall amounts on the lower side, generally less than 0.25" through the weekend.

Behind FROPA much drier/cooler air will usher over the region, and depending on FROPA timing, noticeable drops in temperature could arrive Saturday (more likely) or be delayed until Sunday (less likely). Nonetheless, there is a high chance that afternoon high temperatures will struggle to rise above 60 degrees toward the end of this weekend into early next week behind this frontal passage.

Langfeld

AVIATION
/NEW/ /18Z TAFs/

No major aviation concerns expected through the period with VFR and SKC. Surface winds will return to the south after 23Z, staying around 5 kts or less. For tomorrow, expect light west winds in the morning before a weak FROPA brings NW winds around 5-10 kts by 18Z.

Sanchez


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 62 41 65 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 64 37 68 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 59 37 62 35 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 61 35 64 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 61 36 64 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 63 42 65 40 64 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 61 37 64 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 63 40 67 40 65 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 64 37 69 38 67 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 64 37 66 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 0

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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