Sunrise 6:33 AM   Sunset 8:18 PM Moonrise 10:26 AM   Moonset 12:14 AM

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FXUS64 KFWD 130852 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 352 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024

New Long Term

SHORT TERM
/Issued 119 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ /Through Tuesday/

A relative lull in convective activity exists following the eastward departure of showers and thunderstorms to end the weekend. One last opportunity for convection will occur late this morning into the afternoon mainly across parts of East and Central Texas as the system's trailing weak cold front moves through. Until then, a mild and muggy morning is in store with widespread low stratus and perhaps areas of fog set to develop through daybreak. Some dense fog is not out of the question, and the necessity of a Dense Fog Advisory will be monitored overnight.

Later this morning after sunrise, trailing shortwave energy responsible for ongoing convection in western Oklahoma could allow for elevated shower and thunderstorm activity to clip portions of North Texas. Meanwhile, the aforementioned cold front will slowly push into North Texas, offering an additional source of ascent.
Despite these lifting mechanisms and exceptional prefrontal instability, a subsidence inversion may keep most of the forecast area too capped to achieve renewed deep convection later in the day along this boundary. Lackluster convergence along the front due to the presence of a vague prefrontal trough feature and attendant veering westerly flow will also mitigate ascent strength, making convective initiation in the presence of even weak capping less likely. Overall, PoPs have been reduced from previous forecasts, as prospects for late morning/afternoon convection appear lower than previously advertised. That being said, any isolated storm that may manage to develop could quickly become severe in the presence of strong instability with hail/wind threats. Since low-level flow will be veered and weak, the tornado potential appears quite low. The chance for severe storms and flooding is highest across our southeast zones, tapering off northwestward into the I-35 and I-20 corridors where the potential for thunderstorms is quite low. All convection should be exiting the area to the east by early evening. At this time, no changes are planned to the Flood Watch product which remains in effect through midday. However, northern portions of the watch may be trimmed in subsequent forecasts depending on observational and model trends over the next few hours. An additional 1-2" of rain would be possible if afternoon convection can develop in Central Texas, and even these small rainfall amounts will be sufficient to result in additional flash flooding due to already saturated grounds.

Following the departure of today's convective activity and the passage of the weak cold front, dry and pleasant weather will prevail heading into the midweek period with clearing skies and warmer temperatures for Tuesday. Highs will return to the mid and upper 80s with lows in the 60s.

-Stalley

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Tuesday Night Through Next Weekend/

Our brief period of quiet weather will continue Wednesday, with a warm afternoon in store for North and Central Texas. Temperatures will mostly peak in the mid to upper 80s, but a few spots may eclipse the 90 degree mark. A deepening shortwave trough will swing into West Texas during the afternoon, which should aid in the development of deep convection ahead of a dryline well to our west. If these storms are able to maintain their intensity as they move east, they likely won't reach our western border until late evening or into the overnight hours Wednesday night. We'll at least have a low potential for severe weather with this activity, but this will largely depend on how these storms evolve as they approach the area.

The shortwave will continue moving east on Thursday as a surface low deepens across far West Texas. By midday, the dryline will near our western border with a cold front draped across the Texas Panhandle. This will set the stage for multiple rounds of showers and storms throughout the day. Chances for showers and storms will continue into Thursday night as a secondary shortwave emerges out of the Four Corners Region into the Southern Plains. Lift will likely be maximized during this time period as the cold front continues to move south and east towards the region. Some severe threat could materialize Thursday and/or Thursday night. However, there is unusually high uncertainty in how our upper level pattern will evolve during this time period, which has rather drastic implications on the expected timing, location, and severity of the potential storms. Since we're in the thick of spring, make sure you monitor the forecast for any updates throughout the week.

Unfortunately, the uncertainty bleeds into the weekend forecast as there is significant model divergence from Friday onward. Given the lack of confidence in any single solution, we stuck close to national blends for now which advertises daily low rain chances Friday through the upcoming weekend.

Barnes

AVIATION
/Issued 119 AM CDT Mon May 13 2024/ /06z TAFs/

IFR cigs briefly scattered on the back edge of the departing shower and thunderstorm activity late this evening, but renewed IFR cig development is now underway across western portions of D10 which will overspread all TAF sites early this morning. In addition to cigs between 500-800 ft, visibility may occasionally be reduced into the 1-4SM range through daybreak. There are a couple of low-probability opportunities for showers and thunderstorms near the TAF sites today, one in the morning with activity moving southeastward out of Oklahoma, and another early this afternoon with the arrival of a weak cold front. Brief mentions of VCSH/VCTS have been maintained in the TAFs accordingly. Precip chances will come to an end at the terminals after ~21z with a light northwest wind and clearing skies to follow.

-Stalley


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 83 63 85 65 88 / 20 5 0 0 5 Waco 82 61 84 63 86 / 30 10 0 0 5 Paris 79 60 81 58 85 / 50 20 0 0 0 Denton 81 59 83 61 88 / 30 5 0 0 5 McKinney 81 61 82 61 86 / 30 5 0 0 0 Dallas 84 63 86 64 88 / 20 5 0 0 0 Terrell 80 61 83 61 86 / 30 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 82 64 85 64 88 / 30 10 0 0 0 Temple 83 62 85 64 87 / 30 10 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 82 60 85 62 88 / 10 0 0 0 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ119>122-130>135- 141>148-156>162-174-175.

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Central Texas,