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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Waters From Altamaha Sound Ga To Fernandina Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl From 20 To 60 Nm- 828 Am Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Patchy fog.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A slight chance of Thunderstorms. A chance of showers, mainly in the evening. Patchy fog.
Sunday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. Patchy fog in the morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Sunday night..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop.
Monday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 feet with a dominant period 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters choppy.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
Wednesday night..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Seas 3 to 5 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 828 Am Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis.. A cold front will move southeast into the area this weekend maintaining a moist, southerly wind flow. Patchy to areas of sea fog will be possible near the coast this morning and again tonight with visibility near 1 nautical mile. Otherwise, scattered showers and isolated Thunderstorms are expected through the weekend. The cold front is expected to move across the coastal waters Sunday night turning winds to the west and northwest. Stronger northwest winds are expected by Monday night. A secondary front will move southeast across the area by mid week.
Gulf stream..
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of nov 30, 2023 at 1200 utc...
51 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 59 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 68 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 84 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 021719 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 1219 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

Weak pressure pattern over the area with main sfc low back over the northwestern GOMEX, weak trough well offshore of our coast, and another trough over southeast GA. Rounds of scattered mainly light showers still affecting the area thanks to a couple of shortwave troughs rotating southwest to northeast over the southeast states.
Deep layer flow is southwest about 25 mph, with now rising PWATs of about 1.5 to 1.8 inches. The sfc low is expected to translate northeastward to northern AL this afternoon and to the TN and Ohio Valley later tonight. The mean sfc flow will turn more to the south and increase over the area today while additional moisture flows into the region from the southwest, with PWATs of 2 inches across most areas with mean deep flow increased to about 30-35 mph. Best forcing will be tend to be located north of the area today, but weak shortwave disturbances coupled with increased instability will lead to high rain chances, especially over northwest zones at 70-90 percent. The HRRR and other models suggest some potential for a few thunderstorms this afternoon. Models also suggest some storms may be organized from just north of Live Oak FL to Nahunta and possibly as far east as Brunswick. The threat still seems low at this time.
These storms would be capable of isolated wind damage so we will continue to monitor. Given the strengthening south flow, temps will again hit around 80 to the lower 80s over northeast FL and probably remaining in the 70s over southeast GA where the precip chances are highest.

Tonight, mean deep layer flow turns more southwesterly, and elevated rain chances will be noted from southeast GA to the Suwannee Valley.
The cold front will slowly advance to northwest GA to the western FL panhandle late. A few embedded thunderstorms are still expected despite the waning instability. The other concern is for areas of fog to develop but it's possible with the sfc wind of 5-10 mph that dense fog development would be brief and isolated but is include din the forecast. Temps will be much higher than normal, and may be near record warm minimums.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Showers and possible thunderstorms will continue to develop through the forecast area on Sunday with weather conditions clearing in the evening and overnight hours as high pressure conditions build in following the frontal passage. Last remaining traces of precipitation will clear out on Monday with dry weather and westerly flow holding into the beginning of the week. Temperatures will cool after the weekend with high temps on Monday reaching up into the lower 70s and upper 60s and then dropping down into the 40s overnight as colder air settles into the region.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

High pressure conditions will dominate the weather pattern for next week with dry weather expected through the end of the week. A dry cold front will press down into the forecast area from out of the north by midweek, bringing clearing skies and breezy northwesterly winds. Cooling trend will continue through next week with temperatures dropping to be well below the seasonal average by the later part of the week.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1219 PM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

TAF sites will bounce between LIFR and MVFR through 00Z before deteriorating overnight into prevailing IFR/LIFR. Low stratus has lingered across the NE FL TAF sites. Southerly flow will attempt to lift ceilings and visibilities through the day. A warm front draped across the I-10 corridor has led to mainly light and variable winds today. Showers with embedded storms will spread in from the west beginning between 19-22Z. Thunderstorm chances remain low and so have VCTS. Waves of rainfall will continue through the period. Ceilings and visibilities drop into IFR/LIFR due to fog, low stratus and showers overnight.

MARINE
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Southerly flow will remain in effect this weekend before the frontal passage, which looks to be late Sunday night. Patchy to areas of sea fog are possible at times through Sunday morning . Otherwise, winds and seas will be below advisory criteria in the meantime. Winds will increase late Monday and Monday night, and could be near advisory levels. Another dry cold frontal passage expected mid week.

Rip Currents: Moderate risk today due to the seas of 3+ feet which yields breakers of at least 2-3 ft. Fairly similar conditions expected on Sunday.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 345 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

Total rainfall amounts likely to be around the 0.25 to 1 inch range ahead of the cold frontal passage through Sunday, highest amounts over southeast GA and Suwannee Valley area. NBM model (using near worst case for higher precip) depicts up to near 3 inches over the far western zones from just north Live Oak FL to Alma GA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 66 76 55 71 / 60 80 20 10 SSI 64 76 60 73 / 60 50 20 10 JAX 67 79 60 74 / 40 60 20 10 SGJ 67 80 63 75 / 30 40 20 10 GNV 68 80 63 75 / 30 60 10 10 OCF 68 80 64 76 / 30 40 10 10

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Crispen Island
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Sat -- 12:35 AM EST     6.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:57 AM EST     0.82 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:42 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:52 PM EST     8.09 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:23 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:35 PM EST     1.26 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:15 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crispen Island, Turtle River, Georgia, Tide feet

Mackay River (Daymark %23239), Georgia, Tide feet

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