Sunrise 6:25 AM   Sunset 8:35 PM Moonrise 2:58 AM   Moonset 5:54 PM

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AMZ450 Coastal Waters From Altamaha Sound To Fernandina Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From Fernandina Beach To St. Augustine Fl Out 20 Nm- Coastal Waters From St. Augustine To Flagler Beach Fl Out 20 Nm- 901 Am Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: southeast 2 feet at 4 seconds and northeast 2 feet at 7 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of Thunderstorms this morning, then a chance of Thunderstorms this afternoon. Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 2 feet at 7 seconds and southeast 2 feet at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Thursday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 2 feet at 7 seconds and east 2 feet at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Thursday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 2 feet at 7 seconds and east 2 feet at 8 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. Friday - East winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming southeast in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: northeast 2 feet at 6 seconds and east 2 feet at 10 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Friday night - Southeast winds around 10 knots, becoming south after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Wave detail: east 2 feet at 6 seconds and east 2 feet at 10 seconds. Intracoastal waters light chop. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Saturday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers with a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Sunday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Seas 2 to 3 feet. Intracoastal waters a moderate chop. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

AMZ400 Synopsis For Altamaha Sound Ga To Flagler Beach Fl Out To 60 Nm- 901 Am Edt Wed Jul 3 2024
Synopsis -
prevailing winds have shifted to easterly as high pressure building over the mid-atlantic states Wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Showers and Thunderstorms will increase in coverage across our local waters along and south of a stalled frontal boundary through today. The frontal boundary will gradually dissipate over the georgia waters by Thursday, with prevailing onshore winds continuing as high pressure weakens off the eastern seaboard. Coverage of showers and Thunderstorms are expected to decrease across our local waters late this week through Saturday, with prevailing winds then shifting to southwesterly during the weekend ahead of the next weakening frontal boundary that will be entering the southeastern states.
Gulf stream -
the approximate location of the west wall of the gulf stream as of jul 02, 2024 at 1200 utc - .
57 nautical miles east of flagler beach. 66 nautical miles east of saint augustine beach. 75 nautical miles east of jacksonville beach. 84 nautical miles east southeast of st simons island.
this data courtesy of the naval oceanographic office.

FXUS62 KJAX 031255 AFDJAX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jacksonville FL 855 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

New UPDATE, MARINE

UPDATE
Issued at 847 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For the latest NE FL and SE GA Daily Key Messages please visit: https:// www.weather.gov/media/jax/briefings/nws-jax-briefing.pdf

A frontal boundary/trough axis oriented east-west over central Georgia will continue to dissipate today. A surface high pressure center will build south as the Bermuda-Azores Ridge remains dominant over the Florida Peninsula. With a moist airmass coming in from the Gulf of Mexico we should see sea breeze front convergence over the interior areas with scattered to numerous storm along an near Interstate 75/U.S. 301 this afternoon and evening. High temperatures today will rise into the lower to mid 90s for inland areas and in the upper 80s and lower 90s along the coast. Overnight low temperatures are expected to drop down into the mid 70s for inland areas and in the upper 70s and lower 80s along the coast. Heat index values will rise to be above 100 degrees today for some areas but are not expected to reach Heat Advisory levels this afternoon.

SHORT TERM
(Thursday through Friday night)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

For Independence Day, weak and diffuse frontal boundary looks to be located near the FL/GA state line with low level convergence, PWATs near 2 inches, and west and east sea breezes pushing inland to support scattered to numerous showers and storms, with heaviest concentration/coverage at about 70 percent across inland northeast FL where the best low level forcing will be located. Drier air in the mid levels advecting in from the northeast will support lower coverage across portions of eastern GA. Highs in the lower 90s expected with heat indices generally 104-108, and so continues to suggest just shy of a widespread heat advy conditions. Main t-storm threats will be gusty winds and very heavy rainfall/localized flooding potential given the high moisture content and slow storm motion to the south to southwest.

Thursday night, sfc high pressure builds in from the northeast and east. Low level convergence inland and residual daytime instability will support isolated to scattered convection during the evening hours. Convective activity should fade by midnight. Lows continue from the mid 70s inland to upper 70s near the coast.

Friday, the frontal boundary is no longer noted in the guidance and general sfc high pressure ridge is over the region. Mid level ridge will be just west of the area, and mean deep layer winds are only about 5 knots. Best moisture is located inland with PWATS near 2 inches, and this is where we have the best rain chances at 40-60 percent, and tapering to 30-40 percent near the coast. West and east sea breezes, and daytime heating will be the main drivers of diurnal convection. Max temps will be inched 1-2 degrees given the greater daytime insolation. Friday night, some isolated inland convection is possible, but should fade quickly during the evening hours.
Lows in the mid to upper 70s expected.

LONG TERM
(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Essentially little change in the thinking with the mid to upper level ridge over the southeast states initially for the weekend, and then shifts slightly south-southeast by Monday and Tuesday as some mid level troughing digs in AL and GA. Weak sfc ridge will be over the region through the weekend, and then build slightly on Monday and Tuesday while shifting more so into north central or central FL on Tuesday. We don't see much appreciable change in the moisture levels with PWATs of 1.8 to 2.2 inches and given the weak synoptic flow, sea breezes and daytime heating should lead to scattered to numerous shower and storm coverage each day, though some slightly drier air across the eastern zones may limit convection there. Max temps will be in the lower to mid 90s and with the dewpoints of mid 70s, occasional upper 70s, some heat advisory criteria will be possible in some locations each day. Lows mainly in the mid 70s are anticipated.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

No change in forecast thinking. A few morning showers near KSSI with a surface trough just north of them. This afternoon sea breeze front convergence convection will fire across the spine of the Fl peninsula and over inland SE GA. As the Atlantic sea breeze will be dominant expect the main fields impacted will be KGNV and KVQQ. Have VCTS for now.

MARINE
Issued at 847 AM EDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Prevailing winds have shifted to easterly as high pressure builds over the Mid-Atlantic states and wedges down the southeastern seaboard. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage across our local waters along and south of a stalled frontal boundary today. The frontal boundary will gradually dissipate over the Georgia waters by Thursday, with prevailing onshore winds continuing as high pressure weakens off the eastern seaboard.
Coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected to decrease across our local waters late this week through Saturday, with prevailing winds then shifting to southwesterly during the weekend ahead of the next weakening frontal boundary that will be entering the southeastern states.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk for beaches through Thursday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AMG 92 74 93 74 / 60 20 30 10 SSI 90 79 90 78 / 40 20 30 10 JAX 93 76 92 75 / 60 20 70 20 SGJ 92 77 91 77 / 50 20 60 10 GNV 93 74 92 74 / 80 40 70 30 OCF 94 75 93 76 / 80 40 70 30

JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.

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Crispen Island
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Wed -- 01:39 AM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 08:03 AM EDT     7.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:40 PM EDT     -0.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:32 PM EDT     9.24 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:34 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Crispen Island, Turtle River, Georgia, Tide feet

Mackay River (Daymark #239)
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:40 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:57 AM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:28 AM EDT     6.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 01:41 PM EDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:52 PM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:57 PM EDT     8.27 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:33 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mackay River (Daymark, Tide feet

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