Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ali Chuk, AZ

DISCUSSION
Water vapor imagery shows a closed low centered over northern Utah with a trough axis extending into Baja. This trough will remain in place over the next couple of days keeping temperatures below normal and leading to some elevated winds east of Tucson.
Wind speeds will be strongest today in Cochise County and will contribute to elevated fire weather conditions. Tuesday a shortwave embedded in the larger scale trough could help trigger some isolated storms in the White Mountains during the afternoon.
However confidence is low with NBM PoPs in northern Greenlee County only around 15 percent. Better chances are to the north in southern Navajo and Apache Counties.

Mid week to the end of the work week a ridge moves in, although it will be undercut by a couple weak shortwaves moving through Arizona. This will lead to a warmup with highs potentially reaching 90 degrees again in Tucson Thursday into Saturday. Then this weekend into early next week models are consistent in showing a fairly strong upper level low moving into the Great Basin and desert Southwest. Right now the biggest impact looks to be another round of strong gusty winds Saturday and Sunday with Sunday seeing the strongest winds. However there is still uncertainty with the timing of the trough which will affect which day this weekend sees the strongest wind. Even with this uncertainty, winds this weekend will likely lead to fire weather concerns with headlines a possibility as the weekend approaches. The trough will also bring a cooler air mass with high temperatures in Tucson potentially below 80 degrees Sunday into early next week. May has not seen a sub-80 degree high in Tucson since 2019.

AVIATION
Valid through 29/12Z.
SKC through the forecast period. SFC winds less than 10 kts this morning becoming SWLY this afternoon with speeds of 10-18 kts and gusts up to 30 kts. KDUG will see speeds on the higher end of the range and KTUS and KOLS on the lower end. After 29/03Z, SFC winds will slowly diminish to less than 10 kts and mainly terrain driven. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Breezy conditions will linger today, mainly in Cochise County, but will remain below critical levels. Winds for the rest of the week will generally be below 15 mph with the occasional gust in the afternoon. Temperatures will trend warmer by the end of the week. There is a slight chance (<15%) for very light precipitation and a rumble of thunder in the White Mountains Tuesday. This weekend, another weather system will be approaching resulting in another round strong gusty winds and fire weather concerns.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.