Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ali Chuk, AZ
 | Sunrise 5:58 AM Sunset 7:32 PM Moonrise 10:49 PM Moonset 11:42 AM |
Marine Forecasts
NOTE: Zones updated 4/16/2026. Some zones changed. Use Edit if needed.
PMZ017 Northern Gulf Of California- 839 Am Pdt Tue Aug 4 2026
Today - SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Period 6 seconds.
Tonight - SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Period 6 seconds.
Wed - SE to S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Period 6 seconds.
Wed night - SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 5 seconds.
Thu - SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 4 seconds.
Thu night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 3 seconds.
Fri - SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 4 seconds.
Fri night - SE to S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 4 seconds.
Sat - SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 3 seconds.
Sat night - SE to S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 ft or less. Period 3 seconds.
PMZ005
No data
No data
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ali Chuk, AZ
NEW! Add second zone forecast
FXUS65 KTWC 041627 AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 927 AM MST Tue Aug 4 2026
UPDATE
The atmosphere is primed for another day of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. An elongated ridge is in place with modest mid-level flow of 20-30 kts at 500 mb. This will lead to 0-6 km shear of 25-35 kts with CAPE values 1000-1500 J/kg and seasonal PWAT values. Hi-res guidance shows initial development over the White Mountains and Sky Islands east of Tucson by mid-afternoon. Storms then progress westward into the lower elevations of Santa Cruz, Cochise, and eastern Pima Counties late afternoon into the evening. Heavy rainfall will be a threat in Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties with HRRR one inch in one hour probabilities within 25 km of a point 20-50 percent between 4 PM - 9 PM.
Areas that received heavy rain yesterday will also be more likely to see runoff and flash flooding. Because of this a Flood Watch has been issued for these areas from 3 PM - 11 PM. With the aforementioned shear some storms could be rotating, which could lead to an isolated hail threat and a more widespread severe wind threat. Model soundings also show a nose of dry air around 400 mb which would act to enhance downdrafts through entrainment. Because of all of these factors some storms may be capable of wind gusts 70-80 mph. There is also a small tornado threat as well with 0-3 km helicity values 150-250 m^2/s^2. The best environment for a tornado looks to be along the international border, but confidence is low in any tornado developing.
SYNOPSIS
Chances for thunderstorms will develop each afternoon and evening this week with day to day variability.
Thunderstorms may produce severe outflow winds with areas of blowing dust, as well as locally heavy rainfall with a flash flooding risk. High temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal through the week.
DISCUSSION
Yesterday was an active monsoon day across Southeastern Arizona with recorded wind gusts of 58-88 mph, with a 74 mph wind gust recorded at Tucson International Airport.
Along with the strong outflow winds, there was dust storms bringing near zero visibilities.
A weak outflow from mexico is currently triggering weak showers/thunderstorms for areas south of Tucson in southern Cochise and Santa Cruz counties. With this lingering overnight activity and the needed time for the atmosphere to recover, leading to a later start time for storm initiation this afternoon/evening.
This is showing up with the CAMs having initiation in the White Mountains around noon/1 PM then more widespread initiation 2 to 3 PM. Storms will begin in the NE then slowly move SW/W over the course of the afternoon and evening. Tucson will begin to have storm chances beginning after 5/6 PM and moving westward into the evening. Main impacts for storms today follow the wind/blowing dust threat area wide, then an added flash flooding threat areas south of Tucson along the International Border in southern Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties. The 04/00Z HRRR once again is showing a large area of 10% probability of 50 kts (and a small 30% probability as well). With this, the threat for blowing dust continues with the storm outflows, so a Blowing Dust has been issued for the portions of Graham and Cochise counties. As for the flash flooding component, the 04/00Z HRRR is once again highlighting Cochise and Santa Cruz counties with the 3 hour probability matched mean introducing a 10% probability for 3 inches of accumulation in these areas.
Wednesday looks like a downtick in coverage and intensity, however the moisture and favorable flow continues, so chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms remain.
Favorable flow for monsoon activity continues through the week with the upper high drifting north towards the Four Corners with day to day variability. Forecast high temperatures will fall to 2-4 degrees above normal, with some variability due to thunderstorm activity and cloud cover.
AVIATION
Valid through 05/12Z.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon mainly between 04/21Z to 05/03Z with lingering isolated activity through 04/06Z for areas east of KTUS.
Coverage around KTUS more likely 05/02Z-05/08Z and KOLS 05/02Z-05/08Z. Gusty erratic winds of 35-45 kts possible with any thunderstorm with potentially blowing dust. Otherwise SFC winds WLY/NWLY at 8-12 kts with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 kts. SFC winds light and terrain driven after 05/06Z. Scattered thunderstorm chances return Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER
An active monsoon period looks favorable this week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, with day to day variability. Minimum relative humidity values will likely remain above 25-40 percent through the week with temperatures 2-4 degrees above normal.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds terrain driven to around 10 mph with occasional afternoon gusts to 25 mph.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch from 3 PM MST this afternoon through 11 PM this evening for AZZ503-504-507-508-511>513.
Blowing Dust Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ507>509-511>513.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 927 AM MST Tue Aug 4 2026
UPDATE
The atmosphere is primed for another day of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. An elongated ridge is in place with modest mid-level flow of 20-30 kts at 500 mb. This will lead to 0-6 km shear of 25-35 kts with CAPE values 1000-1500 J/kg and seasonal PWAT values. Hi-res guidance shows initial development over the White Mountains and Sky Islands east of Tucson by mid-afternoon. Storms then progress westward into the lower elevations of Santa Cruz, Cochise, and eastern Pima Counties late afternoon into the evening. Heavy rainfall will be a threat in Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties with HRRR one inch in one hour probabilities within 25 km of a point 20-50 percent between 4 PM - 9 PM.
Areas that received heavy rain yesterday will also be more likely to see runoff and flash flooding. Because of this a Flood Watch has been issued for these areas from 3 PM - 11 PM. With the aforementioned shear some storms could be rotating, which could lead to an isolated hail threat and a more widespread severe wind threat. Model soundings also show a nose of dry air around 400 mb which would act to enhance downdrafts through entrainment. Because of all of these factors some storms may be capable of wind gusts 70-80 mph. There is also a small tornado threat as well with 0-3 km helicity values 150-250 m^2/s^2. The best environment for a tornado looks to be along the international border, but confidence is low in any tornado developing.
SYNOPSIS
Chances for thunderstorms will develop each afternoon and evening this week with day to day variability.
Thunderstorms may produce severe outflow winds with areas of blowing dust, as well as locally heavy rainfall with a flash flooding risk. High temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal through the week.
DISCUSSION
Yesterday was an active monsoon day across Southeastern Arizona with recorded wind gusts of 58-88 mph, with a 74 mph wind gust recorded at Tucson International Airport.
Along with the strong outflow winds, there was dust storms bringing near zero visibilities.
A weak outflow from mexico is currently triggering weak showers/thunderstorms for areas south of Tucson in southern Cochise and Santa Cruz counties. With this lingering overnight activity and the needed time for the atmosphere to recover, leading to a later start time for storm initiation this afternoon/evening.
This is showing up with the CAMs having initiation in the White Mountains around noon/1 PM then more widespread initiation 2 to 3 PM. Storms will begin in the NE then slowly move SW/W over the course of the afternoon and evening. Tucson will begin to have storm chances beginning after 5/6 PM and moving westward into the evening. Main impacts for storms today follow the wind/blowing dust threat area wide, then an added flash flooding threat areas south of Tucson along the International Border in southern Cochise and Santa Cruz Counties. The 04/00Z HRRR once again is showing a large area of 10% probability of 50 kts (and a small 30% probability as well). With this, the threat for blowing dust continues with the storm outflows, so a Blowing Dust has been issued for the portions of Graham and Cochise counties. As for the flash flooding component, the 04/00Z HRRR is once again highlighting Cochise and Santa Cruz counties with the 3 hour probability matched mean introducing a 10% probability for 3 inches of accumulation in these areas.
Wednesday looks like a downtick in coverage and intensity, however the moisture and favorable flow continues, so chances for afternoon and evening thunderstorms remain.
Favorable flow for monsoon activity continues through the week with the upper high drifting north towards the Four Corners with day to day variability. Forecast high temperatures will fall to 2-4 degrees above normal, with some variability due to thunderstorm activity and cloud cover.
AVIATION
Valid through 05/12Z.
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected to develop this afternoon mainly between 04/21Z to 05/03Z with lingering isolated activity through 04/06Z for areas east of KTUS.
Coverage around KTUS more likely 05/02Z-05/08Z and KOLS 05/02Z-05/08Z. Gusty erratic winds of 35-45 kts possible with any thunderstorm with potentially blowing dust. Otherwise SFC winds WLY/NWLY at 8-12 kts with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 kts. SFC winds light and terrain driven after 05/06Z. Scattered thunderstorm chances return Wednesday afternoon and evening.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
FIRE WEATHER
An active monsoon period looks favorable this week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening, with day to day variability. Minimum relative humidity values will likely remain above 25-40 percent through the week with temperatures 2-4 degrees above normal.
Outside of thunderstorms, winds terrain driven to around 10 mph with occasional afternoon gusts to 25 mph.
TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch from 3 PM MST this afternoon through 11 PM this evening for AZZ503-504-507-508-511>513.
Blowing Dust Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ507>509-511>513.
Link to 5 hour of 5 minute data for KNYL
Terminal Aerodrome Forecast (TAF) for KNYL
Wind History Graph: NYL
(wind in knots)
GEOS Local Image of Southwest
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