Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Ali Chuk, AZ

DISCUSSION
Partly cloudy skies this afternoon across southeast Arizona under southwest flow aloft with passing higher level clouds.
Temperatures this afternoon have warmed nicely with highs reaching the 70s for most valley locations.

An overall unsettled week of weather for this work week across southeast Arizona. For Monday, southwesterly flow continues as a trough moves inland into California Monday and then toward the Four Corners region Tuesday. The tighter pressure gradient and increasing low level jet (especially from Tucson westward) will promote breezy conditions area-wide. Expect sustained south to southwest winds Monday of 15 to 25 mph for much of the area with gusts up to around 30 to 35 mph. While the core of the trough and dynamics with this system will remain to our north, a trailing frontal band will push through the region late Monday night through Tuesday, with the bulk of the precipitation chances between midnight and noon on Tuesday, lingering a bit longer near the NM border. This is a lower QPF/higher PoP event with showers likely (60 to 90 percent chances, except far SE Cochise County) but precipitation amounts will mainly be less than 0.25" though some locally higher amounts north of Tucson and in the mountains. Snow levels will start between 8000 and 8500 feet late Monday night, dropping Tuesday morning and settling out around 6500 feet Tuesday afternon. Snow amounts mostly around 1 to 4 inches above 7500 feet, perhaps slightly higher in the White Mountains and at the peaks of the Sky Islands. Meanwhile, above normal temperatures on Monday will give way to much cooler temperatures starting Tuesday with highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Breezy conditions continue Tuesday as well with the strongest winds from Tucson eastward.

Ensembles are depicting a return to dry conditions on Wednesday for most of our forecast area, though slight chances of showers (~10 percent) continue mainly across northern Graham and Greenlee Counties. Thereafter, more troughiness moves through to our north Thursday into Friday with a few more showers possible across southeast Arizona, though the bulk of the precipitation chances stay to our north. Below normal temperatures and continued breezes for this period as well. Dry conditions with warming temperatures next weekend.

AVIATION
Valid through 17/00Z.
SCT-BKN clouds AOA 15k ft AGL through the end of the valid period.
SFC winds less than 10 kts thru 16/16Z, then becoming SLY/SWLY and increasing to 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Unsettled weather returns this week. Dry and warm conditions Monday with breezy conditions ahead of a weather system that will bring periods of valley rain and mountain snow Monday night and Tuesday. Strong and gusty southwest winds are expected Monday and Tuesday with speeds of 15-25 mph and gusts up to around 30-35 mph. Dry conditions Wednesday for most of southeast Arizona, then another weather system may bring a few showers Wednesday through Thursday. Breezy conditions will also continue during the mid to late week period.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.