NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS65 KTWC 100903 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 203 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2023

SYNOPSIS

Near normal temperatures with breezy east to southeast winds will be found today across southeast Arizona. Temperatures warm back up to above normal through early next week, with a brief cool down mid to late week. A chance of showers and high elevation snow will be possible Wednesday into Thursday in Greenlee, Graham, and Cochise counties.

DISCUSSION

Moderately amplified and active flow will lead to a series of temperature changes over the next week, as well as precipitation chances in eastern areas Wednesday into Thursday. Surface pressure rises and a tightening gradient have followed the exit of an upper trough to the east early this morning, and will bring increased winds to areas susceptible to easterly flow during the day. Wind gusts of 30 to near 40 mph will be possible through the early afternoon, before winds begin to diminish into the evening.
Another day of near normal temperatures is expected today before a warmer period sets in Monday and Tuesday with a building ridge aloft.

By mid-week, a northwest shortwave is forecast to drop over Arizona, likely closing off over the state. As the low closes off aloft, the mid-level moisture feed will mostly remain to the east of the New Mexico border. That said, some wrap-around moisture should make it into eastern Arizona, which may produce light precipitation east of Tucson, with light snow possible in the White Mountains. Snow accumulation probabilities are currently highest in northern Greenlee County Wednesday night, but still remain below 50 percent for >1 inch of snow, so at this time any headline worthy accumulations don't look likely. This wave will also act to bring temperatures back down to near normal during the latter half of the week, but temperatures should rebound by at least a few degrees into the weekend as ridging follows the exiting low. Longer range guidance (including CIPS analogs and CPC forecasts) continue to favor warmer and drier conditions through the 14 day period.

AVIATION

Surface winds are expected to increase this morning with an easterly component. Wind gusts of 25 to 35 kts through mid- afternoon, then gradually diminishing into the evening. Strongest winds likely in vicinity of KTUS. SKC-SCT cirrus AOA 20k ft AGL expected through the forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Near normal high temperatures today warm 5 to 10 degrees above normal on Monday. Minimum relative humidity values will be 7-15 percent in the valleys and 13-22 percent in the mountains today, then 10-20 percent in the mountains on Monday with the warmer temperatures. Winds will increase today in areas exposed to easterly flow, becoming 15 to 25 mph with gusts of 30 to near 40 mph. Lighter wind speeds are then expected this coming week. Humidity increases by the middle of the week with a modest cool down and increase in moisture from a passing system. A chance of precipitation should arrive with this system in eastern zones Wednesday into Thursday.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Tucson, AZ,