Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Douglas, AZ

DISCUSSION
Main weather story continues to be the record to record daily high temperatures forecast for across southeast Arizona through Monday afternoon resulting in a minor risk for heat related impacts. A ridge of high pressure aloft will continue to allow for daily high temperatures to rise to around 15 to 20 degrees above normal for southeast Arizona. To put this anomalous warmth into a bit more perspective, the normal daily high temperature at the end of February is only 71 degrees for Tucson International Airport while the forecast high temperature this afternoon is 90 degrees.
Our bodies are not yet acclimated to these warmer temperatures which poses an increased risk for heat related impacts, especially for those who are already particularly sensitive to heat. Practice heat safety by hydrating early and often and wearing lightweight and light colored clothing.

Otherwise, typical afternoon breeziness is expected each afternoon through next week but especially Monday into Tuesday as a weather system quickly passes through the Great Basin and into the central Rocky Mountains. The pressure gradient will locally tighten, especially to the east of Tucson resulting in widespread sustained winds around 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph. With the passage of this system we will start to see a bit of relief from the abnormally warm temperatures. High temperatures are forecast to drop noticeably on Tuesday topping out about 5 to 10 degrease cooler areawide yet still remaining above normal for early March.

Brief shortwave ridging on Wednesday will precede the next weather system on Thursday again bringing increased breeziness to southeast Arizona. There continues to be some uncertainty Friday and beyond on the exact evolution of this next system, but regardless the pattern will bring some additional cooling Friday into next weekend with high temperatures forecast to drop back more toward seasonable normals.

AVIATION
Valid through 01/12Z.
Mainly SKC with ocnl SCT cirrus AOA 20k ft AGL. SFC winds WLY/NWLY at 7-12 kts thru 01/03Z and again after 01/21Z. Otherwise, SFC winds light and terrain driven under 10 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Well above normal afternoon temperatures are expected across Southeast Arizona into early next week with record or near record highs through Monday. All-time February records will be approached, tied or exceeded today . High temperatures will generally run 15-20 degrees above normal through this weekend then cool to be 5 to 10 degrees above the middle of next week. 20-foot winds west to northwest winds 10-15 mph with some higher gusts expected each afternoon through the weekend. A series of dry weather disturbances tracking through the Great Basin next week will result in breezy west to northwest winds 15 to 22 mph Monday, Tuesday and Thursday afternoon. Although widespread critical fire weather conditions are not anticipated at this time, brief localized conditions may be present. Minimum relative humidity of 10-20 percent this weekend through the middle of next week.

CLIMATE
All-time February record high temperatures will be approached, tied or exceeded today. Daily records will be approached, tied or exceeded Sunday and Monday.

Location All-time Feb Forecast Daily Record record high Sat Sun Mon Mar 1 Mar 2 Tucson 92: 2/14/1957 90 90 90 87(1986) 91(2009)
Organ Pipe 95: 2/13/1957 95 96 93 92(2016) 93(2009)
Ajo 92: 2/25/2025* 92 93 89 90(2016) 92(2009)
Picacho Peak 89: 2/17/2016* 88 89 88 87(2009) 89(2009)
Oracle 82: 2/10/2017 81 81 79 78(2009) 78(2016)
Safford (town) 87: 2/15/1957 88 88 89 86(2025) 85(2002)
Willcox 88: 2/17/2016* 86 86 86 82(1974) 82(2008)
Sierra Vista 86: 2/18/2014 85 85 84 80(1999) 85(2009)
Nogales (town) 89: 2/ 9/2017 88 89 87 87(1976) 86(2016)
Douglas 86: 2/10/2017* 87 86 88 83(1999) 86(2009)
* last of several occurrences

The official Tucson locations since 1894 have recorded a February high temperature in the lower 90s five times, in 1904 (91), 1921 (91), 1957 (92), 2009 (91) & 2016 (90).

With these very warm temperatures to end February, Tucson is guaranteed to record its warmest February and Winter on record.

Based on historical average (dating back to 1894) Tucson normally observes its first 90 degree day each year on April 8th. If Tucson reaches 90 degrees today it will be its 6th earliest occurrence.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.