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FXUS65 KTWC 292117 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 217 PM MST Wed Nov 29 2023

SYNOPSIS
A pair of storm systems will bring a chance of valley rain and mountain snow tonight into Thursday morning, and then again Thursday night through Friday night. Much cooler Thursday into the weekend, with cold overnight lows over the weekend into early next week. Dry and warmer much of the rest of next week.

DISCUSSION
No significant changes to the overall theme of the forecast although minor adjustments throughout. First, given blend pops were far too robust tonight onward and adjusted them downward in concert with all of our neighboring offices to more realistic values.
So, generally after midnight will have a few showers roll across mainly the northern half of the area and focused on the higher terrain. Most valley locations will see very light amounts if anything southern third of the area. CAM solutions continue to show band moving east across the area several hours before dawn with the southern edge just south of Tucson. For this first shot the 06Z-12Z period has the highest pops and will probably get a few hundredths in the valley areas roughly I-10 northward with a bit more over the higher terrain. Speaking of higher terrain, the snow level will start out around 8,500 ft this evening and gradually drop to 6-6,500 ft by morning with a light coating showing up on the Sky Islands mainly north of I-10 with a couple of inches over the White Mountains.

We will have a break in the precipitation during the daylight hours Thursday although there should be a fair amount of clouds around with an increase later in the day. Temperatures will peak 8-11 degrees cooler during the afternoon compared to today with a bit of a breeze so it will feel like a very different day.

Round two begins Thursday night as the next shortwave approaches the area. This will be a longer duration event and a bit wetter overall although not a high QPF event. Scattered showers will develop over the area Thursday night and continue off and on through Friday night with the primary focus Friday afternoon and evening most areas. Most areas should see at least a bit of precipitation through this period and again the focus will be north of I-10 thanks to the track of the system. Snow levels will remain near 6-6,500 ft with 1-3 inches accumulation 6-7,000 ft and 3-6 inches 7,000+ ft across the Sky Islands north of I-10 with less to the south. The White Mountains will be receiving more QPF so above 7,000 ft expecting 6-8 inches accumulation. Therefore, since that meets Advisory criteria, I joined our neighbors with a Winter Weather Advisory Above 7,000 ft for the White Mountains.

After this passes by to the east late Friday night, skies will clear in NW flow with a cold air mass settling in for the weekend. Low temperatures will likely be the coolest of the season thus far Sunday morning and we may end up needing a headline or two for that but it is too early at this time. Then as we move into next week a longwave ridge builds over the west with temperatures ramping up, with high temperatures running 4-10 degrees (less east, more west) above normal by midweek. However, this time of year that is pretty nice!

AVIATION
Valid through 01/00.
FEW-SCT clouds 7-11K ft MSL, SCT clouds AOA 20k ft MSL. After 30/03Z SCT-BKN 6-10K ft MSL with SCT -SHRA. MTNS partially to mostly obscured at times in clouds and SHRA/SHSN through 30/15Z. West to southwest SFC winds 5-15 kts increasing to 10-18 kts after 30/18Z.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
A two-part storm system will bring colder temperatures, breezy winds, and a chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers at times tonight into early Thursday morning and again Thursday night through Friday night. The snow level will drop to around 6,000 ft by Thursday morning with generally light accumulations above that level through Friday night. Clearing, dry and colder than normal Saturday through Monday with a warming trend next week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM Thursday to 5 AM MST Saturday for AZZ510.

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