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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 923 Am Cdt Tue Oct 3 2023
.small craft exercise caution in effect through Wednesday morning...
Rest of today..East winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, becoming east 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet, subsiding to 1 to 2 feet after midnight.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots, becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet in the evening, then 1 foot or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 1 to 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon.
Friday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.

GMZ500 923 Am Cdt Tue Oct 3 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
gusty easterly winds in excess of 20 to 25 knots will continue today, which will maintain hazardous seas for small craft of 4 to 7 feet. Winds will gradually decrease ahead of a pattern change and approaching cold front which is expected to arrive Saturday. An increase in winds to 20 to 25 knots is expected behind the front then easing into the first of next week.

FXUS64 KJAN 031732 AAA AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1232 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

New AVIATION

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 950 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Current forecast remains on track as surface ridging continues and hot/dry conditions persist across the region. 12Z sounding supports afternoon temperatures in the lower to mid 90s. Deeper mixing will work to lower dewpoint to the low to mid 50s will allow RH values to fall between 25-35%, keeping fire weather danger across the region. HWO graphic will continue to advertise "Elevated" and "Limited" wildfire danger. /SW/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 337 AM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Today and Tonight...Ridging aloft remains in control of the weather across the region yet again today. This, as high pressure at the surface remains wedged into the forecast area from the northeast.
While above normal warmth continues this afternoon, highs from the upper 80s to middle 90s, a drier airmass presides over the area as dew points mix into the 50s. While this is resulting into lower humidity levels over the area, it combined with the warmth, very dry ground conditions, and sustained east southeast winds between 5-10 mph with occasional gusts between 15-20 mph, continues to result in the concern for increased wildfire danger today. This concern will continue to be highlighted in today's HWO. /19/

Wednesday through Monday: Wednesday wl still have a rather stout surface ridge nosing back to the southwest across our CWA from the northeast associated with a surface high centered over the mid Atlantic seaboard. Our winds aloft will become southwesterly ahead of an approaching northern stream upper level trough. This upper level trough will initially be supporting a cold front that will be dropping through the central Plains. Moisture will try to increase over our region ahead of the approaching cold front but inch and a half PWATs will remain to our west until Thursday morning.
Temperatures will continue to run above normal Wednesday ahead of the cold front and dry weather is expected over our CWA through Wednesday evening. After midnight Wednesday night a pool of inch and a half PWATs along with mid to upper 60F surface dew points will spread east into the western portions of our CWA. This moisture increase looks to fuel an increase in rain chances in our west after midnight that will continue to spread into the central portions of our CWA during the day Thursday. As the upper level support lifts out to the northeast this cold front is expected to stall just northwest of our CWA Thursday evening but a more potent shortwave will be dropping out of the Northern Plains and will bring a reinforcing shot of cold dry air Friday that will send the cold front through our CWA before sunrise Saturday. Although rain chances will spread across the whole CWA Friday and Friday night, rain amounts will be light with less than one tenth of an inch on average. This rain combined with the Wednesday night through Thursday night amounts may total up to a half inch across our northwest zones. With very little rain expected fire danger will remain a concern over the area especially considering the potential for gusty winds as this stronger surge off cool air moves into our CWA. If fact this reinforcing shot of cool dry air will bring in the coolest temperatures of the season. Morning lows Saturday will be in the 50s at most locations but morning lows will be in the 40s at most locations Sunday and Monday morning. Afternoon high temperatures will be held in the 70s each afternoon Saturday through Monday. /22/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

VFR conditions and light winds will prevail today into tomorrow.
By sunrise Wednesday, moisture will try to return to far southern portion of the area. Low probability exists for potential MVFR ceilings south of the area. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 61 90 66 88 / 0 0 0 20 Meridian 57 87 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 63 90 66 85 / 0 0 10 30 Hattiesburg 59 91 65 91 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 65 91 65 87 / 0 0 10 30 Greenville 65 89 67 82 / 0 0 30 50 Greenwood 63 89 67 84 / 0 0 20 30

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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Bay Waveland Yacht Club
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:49 AM CDT     2.37 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:26 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:00 PM CDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:40 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, Tide feet

Waveland
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:44 AM CDT     2.34 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:51 AM CDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:26 AM CDT     Moonset
Tue -- 12:41 PM CDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:40 PM CDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:40 PM CDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Waveland, Mississipi Sound, Mississippi, Tide feet

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