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GMZ530 Lake Pontchartrain And Lake Maurepas- 915 Am Cst Mon Dec 4 2023
Rest of today..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Tonight..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Tuesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming northwest in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots, becoming north 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Friday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Friday night..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Waves around 2 feet.

GMZ500 915 Am Cst Mon Dec 4 2023
Synopsis for pascagoula to atchafalaya river out 60 nm..
high pressure will continue to build into the area with light northerly winds expected. A reinforcing cold front will sweep through the waters Tuesday night, and this will push northerly winds up into exercise caution range of 15 to 20 knots from late Tuesday night through Thursday morning. Winds will then relax back to around 10 to 15 knots and shift to the east and then southeast Thursday afternoon as high pressure passes to the north. By Friday, the high will be east of the waters and a moderate onshore flow of 10 to 15 knots is expected.

FXUS64 KJAN 041729 AAB AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 1129 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

New AVIATION

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 1038 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Minimal changes have been made to the forecast as clear skies will continue to be expected through this afternoon. A northerly breeze will keep our humidity low with temperatures heating up to low to mid 60s across the region.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 414 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Today and Tonight:

An upper-level shortwave trough is silently sliding over the region early this morning. PWAT values are generally less than 0.5 inches across the area, even in advance of a reinforcing cold front pushing through at the surface today. Forecast soundings show a dry subsident layer in the wake of the frontal passage which will lead to a quick mix out of dry and breezy conditions by mid-morning.
Thankfully with recent rainfall, the fire danger is not high - especially in southern MS/LA where RH will be in the 30-35 percent this afternoon. Have therefore decided not to highlight any fire danger in the Hazardous Weather Outlook graphics for today. With clear skies tonight and high pressure moving in behind the cold front to bring calmer winds, parts of the area have a good chance to see temps fall to near freezing Tuesday morning with frost.
/NF/

Tuesday through next Monday...

By Tuesday, an upper trough is progged to exit the Lower Mississippi Valley and have brought a cold front through the ArkLaMiss region.
Drier air is expected to infiltrate the region from northerly flow, bringing more comfortable conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Overnight lows on Tuesday will range near freezing in the north to the upper 30s to near 40 in the south, with some areas of frost expected along and north of I-20. By Wednesday, highs will be cooler, ranging in the lower to upper 50s across the areas. Freezing to below freezing temperatures are expected for northeast Mississippi on Wednesday night into the morning, with widespread frost expected across the entire ArkLaMiss region. Surface ridging is progged to take place Thursday and Friday, allowing for increased temperatures across the area, with highs climbing into the upper 60s to lower 70s on Friday and Saturday.

A pattern change is expected to take place on Friday as an upper trough swings across the central CONUS into the ArkLaMiss region, bringing the potential for showers and thunderstorms sometime Friday evening into Saturday. Global guidance is hinting at decent instability and shear for December, which could bring some strong to severe storms Saturday into Sunday. A Slight and Marginal risk has been advertised for severe storms in the west. This system is several days out and remains uncertain in severe potential and timing. We will continue to monitor this system as is gets closer.
/AJ/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1126 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

VFR conditions will be expected for all TAF sites through this period as clear skies will prevail through tomorrow. Breezy conditions this afternoon will begin to calm as we approach the evening. /LCP/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 37 64 37 57 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 36 65 37 57 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 36 65 36 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 39 65 39 58 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 38 65 38 57 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 37 63 35 54 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 35 63 34 54 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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Bay Waveland Yacht Club
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Mon -- 02:57 AM CST     1.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:38 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:14 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:18 PM CST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:56 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:40 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:51 PM CST     Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Bay Waveland Yacht Club, Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, Tide feet

Waveland
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Mon -- 03:12 AM CST     1.54 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:38 AM CST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:14 PM CST     Moonset
Mon -- 02:06 PM CST     0.25 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:56 PM CST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:40 PM CST     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:51 PM CST     Last Quarter
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Waveland, Mississipi Sound, Mississippi, Tide feet

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