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GMZ630 Northern Mobile Bay-southern Mobile Bay- 1010 Pm Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
.small craft should exercise caution tonight...
Rest of tonight..North winds 15 to 20 knots, diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Monday..North winds 10 to 15 knots, diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Waves around 2 feet in the morning, then 1 foot or less.
Monday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots, increasing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots with gusts up to 25 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Thursday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves around 2 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Friday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A slight chance of showers.
Friday night..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Waves 2 to 3 feet. A chance of showers.

GMZ600 1010 Pm Cst Sun Dec 10 2023
Synopsis..Moderate northwesterly to northerly flow will persist this evening behind a cold front with gusty conditions subsiding through the night. A moderate to occasionally strong northeasterly flow remains established throughout the week.

FXUS64 KMOB 110546 AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 1145 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New AVIATION

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1145 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hours. /13

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 318 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/

New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE

NEAR TERM...
(Now through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

A highly amplified mid and upper level trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley will continue to gradually shift eastward through tonight. Latest model guidance, confirmed with trends in satellite imagery, suggests that the strong low level cold advection continues to displace theta surfaces upward at a faster rate than air can move down the theta surfaces in a continued moist low level airmass. This has resulted in low level cloud cover continuing to redevelop along the western side of the cloud shield. Low clouds should eventually scatter out through the evening for areas east of I-65 as drier air advects southeastward in the low levels and overall isentropic descent wins out. Skies should become clear later tonight east of I-65.

Strong and gusty northwest winds will gradually diminish over land this evening but remain strong over the marine areas and along the immediate coast. Continued strong cold air advection continues through tonight which should result in cold temperatures in the upper 20s over interior areas north of I-10 to around freezing along the I-10 corridor. Areas south of I-10 to the coast should remain above freezing but still drop into the mid to upper 30s.

Clear and cool conditions can be expected on Monday as high pressure builds back over the forecast area. The rip current should drop to moderate risk tonight and low risk tomorrow. /JLH

SHORT TERM AND EXTENDED...
(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 222 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Surface high pressure remains in place through Tuesday and becomes reinforced from the northeast by mid week. This keeps dry weather in place through Thursday, but helps to significantly tighten the pressure gradient over the Southeast U.S. This helps to strengthen northeast to east winds over much of the area with a return of marine hazards as well. Solid small craft conditions return as soon as Wednesday and Wednesday night with likely gale force winds towards the end of the week. This is expected as another upper level low pressure drops southeast from the Southwest into the Gulf and initiates surface low pressure development over the central Gulf. In fact, all of the ensemble probabilistic guidance from both the GEFS and ENS indicate a near 100% probability of wind speeds in excess of 20 kts, with the ENS wind gusts probability for greater than 34 kts in excess of 70% over our marine zones by the end of the week into next weekend. This is likely to be a higher end marine wind threat.

Moisture advecting northward ahead of this low could bring a return of rain chances as early as the end of next week and more likely into next weekend, especially along the coast. There remains significant timing differences in the evolution and timing of the late week/weekend storm system with varying solutions offered by the ensemble guidance. The forecast will be refined in future forecasts as confidence in timing and evolution increase. Either way, wet weather should eventually return late in the forecast period with below seasonal temperatures to persist through the short and extended forecast period. /JLH

MARINE...
Issued at 222 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Strong northerly flow will diminish slightly through the overnight hours. In the meantime, a Gale Warning will remain in effect for the entire Gulf out 60 nautical miles until 10 PM this evening, followed by a Small Craft Advisory through late tonight.
For all bays and sounds, a Small Craft Advisory will remains in effect until 10 PM this evening, followed by Small Craft Exercise Caution headlines. Winds and seas will continue to decrease through Monday while shifting northeasterly. A moderate to strong northeasterly flow will follow for Tuesday through the remainder of the week, and additional Small Craft Advisories will likely be required. /22

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Mobile 33 58 33 59 38 62 45 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Pensacola 38 58 38 59 43 62 48 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Destin 41 60 41 61 47 64 50 62 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Evergreen 32 57 29 60 34 62 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Waynesboro 31 55 30 58 33 59 40 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Camden 30 53 29 56 33 58 40 59 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 Crestview 32 58 31 59 36 63 43 61 / 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AL...None.
FL...None.
MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ650-655-670- 675.

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Lower Bryant Landing, Tensay River, Alabama, Tide feet

Lower Hall Landing
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Sun -- 04:16 AM CST     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:38 AM CST     Sunrise
Sun -- 11:28 AM CST     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 02:57 PM CST     Moonset
Sun -- 04:50 PM CST     Sunset
Sun -- 11:48 PM CST     1.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama, Tide feet

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