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FXUS64 KSHV 101604 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1004 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 954 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Clear skies and abundant sunshine prevail across the ArkLaTex in the wake of yesterday's frontal passage. The only complicating factor in today's forecast will be a tug-of-war between diurnal heating and cold air advection on northwest winds. Temperatures have already climbed into the mid to upper 40s as of the 10:00 AM hour, and should manage another 5 to 10 degrees through the afternoon, consistent with the forecast package aiming for highs in the mid to upper 50s. Ingested the past several hours worth of temperature and dewpoint observations and interpolated through 00Z. The forecast package otherwise remains on track.

/26/

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Colder and drier conditions return to the Four State Region in the next 36 hours as a post-frontal air mass gradually builds eastward. This air mass arrives in the form of a 1035MB surface ridge traversing the Intermountain West across the Lower Great Plains towards the Lower Mississippi Valley. In doing so over the rest of the weekend into the beginning of next week, northerly winds will gradually slacken, allowing for some radiational cooling by Sunday night (and temperature minimums in the upper 20s/lower 30s). Otherwise, temperature maximums will remain at or slightly below normal for this time of the year (lower 60s), under sunny afternoon skies. /16/

LONG TERM
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 348 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

Surface high to shift east at the start of the long-term period on Monday night with south winds bringing a gradual warming trend to the region. Overnight low temperatures on Monday night are forecast to average in the lower to middle 30s.

Dry conditions to persist through midweek with weak ridging aloft becoming nearly zonal on Tuesday. However, upper-level pattern to become increasingly unstable into Thursday as upper-flow becomes southwest ahead of a trough digging across the Rockies with increasing cloud cover areawide.

Temperatures through midweek to remain relatively cool as the ArkLaTex remains on the periphery of a surface high across the midwest that will move into the Ohio River Valley. Temperatures are forecast to range from highs around 60 to lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s through Thursday.

Upper-trough across the Rockies to deepen into a closed low on Thursday night, diving southeast into Texas into the northwest Gulf of Mexico late in the workweek allowing for sufficient instability to bring increased rain chances to the ArkLaTex through much of the weekend. Uncertainty regarding timing and rainfall amounts remains fairly high due to a large model spread on the evolution of this system. However, convergence into the corresponding surface low across the Gulf of Mexico will allow for much cooler air to filter south across the ArkLaTex with high temperatures on Saturday in the 50s and overnight lows on Saturday night in the 30s. /05/

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

For the 10/12Z TAF update, VFR vis/cigs are expected through the period with slowly slackening northerly winds. /16/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 55 34 60 37 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 56 30 58 31 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 52 26 56 30 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 52 31 57 33 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 54 29 57 31 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 54 33 61 38 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 54 30 61 36 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 56 31 61 37 / 0 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

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