Nacogdoches, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nacogdoches, TX

June 15, 2024 9:50 PM CDT (02:50 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:11 AM   Sunset 8:26 PM
Moonrise 1:40 PM   Moonset 1:01 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nacogdoches, TX
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Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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FXUS64 KSHV 152318 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 618 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

Light southerly winds have returned to the area as a surface trough lee of the Rockies has become the more dominant low-level synoptic feature affecting us. Despite the low wind speeds, weak warm air advection and subsidence from a departing upper-level ridge have allow the warming trend to continue. The aforementioned subsidence is also weaker resulting in widespread daytime cu.
Precip-free conditions should continue through at least Sunday morning. Patchy fog may develop around sunrise in our more fog- prone locations in the terrain of the Ouachitas and in the Deep East Texas lakes.

Deep onshore flow will increase during the day Sunday allowing Gulf moisture to quickly surge northward. This should also bring the sea breeze into at least our southernmost parishes of Louisiana.
Some of the model guidance also suggests a weak disturbance will also move across the region as it travels around the western periphery of the departing ridge. This disturbance could result in increased coverage of diurnally- driven showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze Sunday afternoon. Moisture return will still be a bit modest, so the best rain chances will be limited to portions of Grant and La Salle Parishes. Slight-chance PoPs will persist in the same areas overnight and into early Monday, but the vast majority of the convection should gradually dissipate after sunset Sunday.

Otherwise, another very warm day is expected for Sunday. Daytime highs will once again rise well into the 90s areawide. Peak heat index values may climb into the lower 100s across much of Louisiana and portions of Deep East Texas where humidity levels will be the highest.

CN

LONG TERM
(Monday through next Friday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

The rich plume of tropical moisture will stream directly overhead to begin the work week. The highest and most widespread rain chances are expected Monday afternoon but should be slightly lower on Tuesday. The biggest question for PoPs on Tuesday surrounds the track of a potential tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico.
Previous model runs brought this system much farther north along the middle to upper Texas coast, resulting in considerably higher rain chances for Tuesday. However, some of the latest models are once again trending farther south towards Deep South Texas. A farther south track would result in low-level easterly winds and less onshore flow, which would keep the better moisture availability farther south and closer to the coast. This would also affect potential rainfall amounts, especially across East Texas south of Interstate 20. Given the widespread among the models, there is considerable uncertainty and low confidence in rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday.

By Thursday, the remnants of the tropical system should be well to the west and rain chances will be gradually diminishing. However, strong diurnal instability and weak capping will allow at least slight chances for diurnally-driven convection to persist through Friday. For the duration of the week, the highest rain chances will be in the afternoon through the early evening hours during peak daytime heating, but some rain chances may persist into the overnight hours until Thursday.

Despite the uncertainty regarding the precip, increased cloud cover should help bring relief from the heat. If the widespread precip does develop, temperatures could be cooled even more significantly Monday through Wednesday, possibly keeping daytime highs below 90 degrees F areawide. Unfortunately, the hot and humid conditions will be quick to return during the latter half of the week as rain chances diminish.

CN

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2024

VFR conditions expected to continue throughout the upcoming TAF period. Can't rule out some scattered CU by the end of the period.
Winds will become southerly during the period between 5 to 10 kts.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 77 97 77 90 / 0 0 0 60 MLU 74 96 74 88 / 0 10 10 70 DEQ 70 93 72 89 / 0 0 0 30 TXK 74 96 75 92 / 0 0 0 50 ELD 72 96 72 88 / 0 0 0 60 TYR 73 94 75 91 / 0 0 0 30 GGG 73 94 74 90 / 0 0 0 50 LFK 72 95 74 88 / 0 10 0 70

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.




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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KOCH NACOGDOCHES A L MANGHAM JR RGNL,TX 4 sm54 mincalm8 smA Few Clouds81°F77°F89%29.88
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GEOS Local Image of southern planes -- texas   
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Shreveport, LA,




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