Nacogdoches, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nacogdoches, TX

June 17, 2024 9:32 AM CDT (14:32 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:12 AM   Sunset 8:27 PM
Moonrise 3:32 PM   Moonset 1:53 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nacogdoches, TX
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Area Discussion for - Shreveport, LA
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FXUS64 KSHV 171141 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 641 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(Monday through Tuesday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

KSHV radar is quiet this morning following sea breeze convection across the eastern tier of the FA yesterday afternoon. Onshore southerly flow continues to strengthen as the pressure gradient located across the GOM tightens, amplifying the northward advection of deep tropical moisture originating from a broad Monsoon Gyre located across the Yucatan Peninsula. The arrival of this moisture, along with diurnally driven instability this afternoon, will support showers and thunderstorms across the FA.
Not ruling out a few showers early this morning across north- central LA as influence from a perturbation rounding the western edge of the upper-level ridge over the Carolinas works north across eastern LA and western MS.

There still remains some uncertainty surrounding the coverage of afternoon convection as some hi-res solutions have trended down just a bit when compared to this time yesterday. That being said though, the majority of the CAMs continue to support afternoon convection in an environment of increasing PWATs and afternoon MaxT's in the upper 80's to near 90 deg F. What does materialize convectively should trend down some by the evening and overnight, with additional development Tuesday.

By Tuesday morning, the broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the Yucatan Peninsula will enter the Bay of Campeche, working west to northwest. At the same time, tropical moisture will continue to enter the Ark-La-Tex, setting the stage for an additional round of showers and thunderstorms through the afternoon. It is worth mentioning that coverage has been trending down for Tuesday as the latest guidance suggests the strengthening and expansion of the upper-level ridge, cutting off the tropical airmass from advancing further north. That being said, still expecting showers and thunderstorms across parts of the region.

RK

LONG TERM
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 343 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

By early Wednesday morning, the tropical low across the SW GOM will work inland. Whether that is south Texas or Mexico is still to be determined, but as it does so, the associated tropical moisture column will focus across the western zones of FA. As a result, showers and thunderstorms will be focused primarily across Deep East Texas for Wednesday afternoon. Given the influence of the westward expansion of the upper-ridge, storm total QPF continues to fall. Buying some breakdown of the ridge, the heaviest precip totals should remain SW of the FA.

As the aforementioned ridge expands west across the Ark-La-Tex, introducing a drier airmass through the end of the week, temperatures will quickly rebound. High temperatures under the influence of the upper-ridge look to climb back into the mid 90's, with the chance for upper 90's returning by the end of the period.
Unfortunately, rain chances are beginning to thin out through the end of the period, with best chances trapped along the extreme southern zones of the FA, citing the influence of any sea breeze convective initiation. This will need to be monitored closely as a lack of sufficient rainfall locally, and a prolonged period of drier conditions, could support higher temperatures than the advertised forecast for the upcoming weekend.

RK

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

A mix bag of LIFR/IFR/MVFR ceilings across our airspace this morning. also seeing some showers just south and east of our airspace but with the aid of daytime heating, we should see those showers with embedded TSRA bubbling up across our airspace as well. Look for ceilings to become VFR areawide today outside of convection. Went with mostly VCTS even given the scattered to likely storm coverage today. Convection should dissipate this evening and through the overnight hours. Look for sustained southeasterly winds near 8-12kts today with gusts upwards of 22kts outside of convection today.

13

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 90 76 87 75 / 50 20 30 20 MLU 88 73 85 72 / 60 30 20 10 DEQ 89 71 89 69 / 20 10 20 10 TXK 90 73 88 72 / 30 10 20 10 ELD 89 71 85 70 / 50 20 20 10 TYR 90 73 89 72 / 30 10 20 20 GGG 90 73 88 72 / 40 20 20 20 LFK 89 73 88 72 / 60 20 40 30

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.




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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KOCH NACOGDOCHES A L MANGHAM JR RGNL,TX 4 sm26 minESE 0910 smOvercast82°F81°F94%29.93
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Shreveport, LA,




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