Sunrise 6:36 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 9:58 PM   Moonset 7:04 AM

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FXUS64 KSHV 261931 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 231 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

A very complicated short-term is unfolding across the region, including the threat of severe weather and flash flooding. After reviewing the morning suite of 12z guidance, and collaborating with the SPC, it was decided to upgrade the existing Slight Risk into an Enhanced Risk. The biggest factor in this were some remnant outflow boundaries that were expected to enhance convection across the region under peak daytime heating. From there, additional collaboration was done with the WPC regarding QPF amounts for this afternoon, and into the overnight hours.
Overnight QPF amounts were underdone, given the fact that afternoon convection is likely to train through the evening hours.
Total rainfall amounts were adjusted up the next 24-hours to account for that. One thing to note regarding this, while we are not anticipating widespread flooding or flash flooding with this rain, it will greatly shrink the tolerance we have for the additional rainfall through the weekend. In turn, depending on rainfall amounts through tonight, a Flood Watch will likely be considered as early as tomorrow for the extra rainfall anticipated on Sunday.

The severe weather threat should diminish once the sun sets, with rain chances beginning to pivot north. This will allow for a portion of the region to dry out through the day on Saturday, before the next round of weather moves in to the long-term.

/44/

LONG TERM
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 146 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Our next round of severe weather and heavy rainfall still looks to be on track for Sunday morning, all the way through to Monday morning. This mostly applies to the heavy rainfall, with the severe weather window still appearing to be the evening and overnight hours. The line overall will be very, very slow moving, which allow for rainfall rates to be incredibly heavy at times. In turn, some locations could pick up 2-4 inches of rainfall in that 24-hour window alone. In fact, while the severe weather threat does exist, we are actually more worried about flash flooding being the "main" threat with this line through Monday AM. However, any storms that do become severe will be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds.

I wish I could say that we will dry out from there, but it looks like behind this disturbance the region will quickly slip back into zonal flow, then SW flow aloft. In turn, the region should remain in a disturbed pattern into next weekend, with daily rain chances for the foreseeable future.

/44/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

For 26/18z TAFS...VFR conditions have finally moved into all TAF sites. However, mostly cloudy skies remain across the region.
Also, convection has started developing across the area, north of a line from Tyler Texas to Texarkana. Look for convection to develop into a line and move southeastward across the region this afternoon into the early evening hours. This will produced widespread reduced flight categories. After Midnight, look for low clouds to develop and move into the sites. Outside of KELD/KMLU, expect VFR conditions to return by the end of the period.

/20/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 72 88 71 86 / 30 20 10 50 MLU 69 87 67 87 / 20 10 0 20 DEQ 65 81 65 76 / 40 60 40 90 TXK 70 85 69 81 / 40 40 20 80 ELD 66 86 66 83 / 30 20 10 50 TYR 70 85 70 80 / 30 20 30 90 GGG 70 86 70 83 / 30 20 20 70 LFK 70 87 70 85 / 20 10 10 60

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

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