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FXUS64 KSHV 100003 AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 603 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

New AVIATION

SHORT TERM
(This evening through Sunday Night)
Issued at 256 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

The mid-afternoon sfc analysis reveals that our cold front has reached an ELD, to MNE/SHV/4F2, to OCH and DKR line as of 20Z, which is a tad faster than the earlier CAM guidance, with extrapolation having the front exiting the SE zones shortly after 00Z this evening. After taking a look outside, and confirmed by the afternoon visible satellite imagery, the cu field along/ahead of the front remains flat, likely due to weak capping still present ahead of the front. SBCapes continue to overperform across the warm/moist sector from the Lower Toledo Bend Country NE across NCntrl/NE LA, having maintained in the 2000-2500 J/Kg range as temps have warmed into the lower 80s. The afternoon water vapor imagery indicates that the amplified longwave trough axis continues to drift SE across NCntrl TX, with the core of the 115-120+kt jet along/just ahead of the base of the trough spreading farther NE into NE TX/SE OK/SW AR. Thus, this continued approach with eventually result in increased large scale forcing needed for the development of scattered convection along the front from portions of the Lower Toledo Bend Country NE across NCntrl LA by late afternoon/early evening. Favorable low level lapse rates and the ample deep lyr shear in place may still favor the development of isolated strong to severe convection mainly over the SE sections of the region, but this window will be short-lived as the front quickly exits the region, thus removing the instability aspect to our equation. The progs remain in general agreement though with some post-frontal convection development occurring this evening from portions of Deep E TX into N LA, and may pose only a marginal hail threat at best as the convection becomes more elevated with time.

Did maintain high chance/likely/low end categorical pops this evening for the Srn and Ern sections of NCntrl LA, before drier air behind the front is able to deepen once it spreads SE, thus ending the post-frontal rains. Much colder air will continue deepening as it spreads SE in wake of the front tonight, especially as the center of the cold core trough moves into the region by/after daybreak Sunday. Gusty NW winds will result in wake of the front as a tight pressure gradient spreads SE in wake of the fropa, but sustained speeds will remain below Wind Advisory criteria although gusts to 25-30 mph will be common. Temps will fall some 15-20+ degrees colder by this time Sunday despite the ample insolation under a mostly sunny sky, setting the stage for a widespread freeze across the region Sunday night as the pressure gradient relaxes once sfc ridging builds into the area. This will set the stage for good radiational cooling, which the NBM often does not take into account with forecast mins, and thus have undercut the NBM by as much as several degrees given this setup as well as the very dry air expected to be in place. In fact, the modified forecast mins reflect the first (sub)freezing temps of the season for SHV and LFK, which both have only fallen to 33 degrees on 11/2, although a Freeze Warning should not be needed as the remainder of the region have observed a freeze. Some modification of temps will commence Monday once Srly low level winds return on the backside of the departing sfc ridge to the E.

15

LONG TERM
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

The new work week will dawn to abundant quiet conditions which will persist for the majority of the week to come, during which pseudo- zonal post frontal conditions will give way to increasingly well defined ridging through midweek. Northerly flow aloft will sustain cold air advection to begin the week, maintaining near seasonable high temperatures and inhibiting substantial warming under the aforementioned ridging. By mid week, flow aloft will become southwesterly, returning moisture aloft in the form of increasing clouds, which look to continue our near or just below seasonable temperature trend. Lows will exhibit gradual warming, with widespread 30s early in the week, and a more mild spread of 40s by late in the week.

The prolonged period of quiet conditions looks to continue at least through Thursday evening, when an area of upper level troughing and associated closed low ejects east over the Southern Rockies, positioned over west Texas by early Friday. As it gradually tracks south and east across Texas, this forcing mechanism should interact with moisture return aloft to kick up scattered showers, which will overtake the entire ArkLaTex through the day Friday and continue through the end of this extended forecast package.

/26/

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 550 PM CST Sat Dec 9 2023

For the 10/00Z TAF period, with the exception of MLU, all sites will be clear of convection at the start of this period. Strong to severe convection will continue to shift south and east of our terminals this evening with VFR conditions expected to dominate behind an advancing cold front. Some mid and high level clouds will linger behind the front through the evening and overnight hours before becoming mostly SKC on Sunday. N/NW winds will be gusty initially behind the front before settling below 10 kts later in the period.

/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 41 57 29 61 / 10 0 0 0 MLU 42 56 29 58 / 50 0 0 0 DEQ 31 52 24 57 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 36 51 28 57 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 37 54 27 57 / 20 0 0 0 TYR 37 54 31 62 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 38 55 28 62 / 10 0 0 0 LFK 41 56 28 61 / 20 0 0 0

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.

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