Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Nacogdoches, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

The midday sfc analysis indicates a stationary bndry that lingers just S of the region over SE TX across S LA N of the I-10 corridor. In fact, scattered -SHRA continues to redevelop near this bndry attm, with weak overrunning resulting in some of this activity spreading N across portions of the Sam Rayburn County, Lower Toledo Bend Country, and Cntrl LA. The midday visible satellite imagery indicates that the morning post-frontal low stratus has struggled to lift/scatter out, especially over much of Srn AR and the I-20 corridor of N LA, with stratocu cigs already beginning to return N towards I-20 in E TX. Not buying the short term progs scattering these cigs out this afternoon, and thus have lowered max temps across much of the region to account for this, while also trimming back pops to slight chances across the far Srn zones for the afternoon.

The weak sfc bndry to our S remains progged to begin lifting back N this evening, thus returning warmer and more humid air back N into the area. Did consider the potential for patchy FG potential late tonight for the Srn zones, but conditions aren't really ideal given the increasing low level theta-e advection that will begin to enhancing overrunning conditions atop the cool/shallow air mass in place N of the returning front. The short term progs continue to suggest that a weak shortwave trough will develop and eject E from the OK/TX Panhandles into Nrn OK tonight, before quickly translating E into the Ozarks through Monday afternoon.
The associated PVA in advance of this perturbation may help to enhance isolated convection late tonight over much of the region along the returning pseudo-warm front. With mid level lapse rates expected to gradually steepen overnight, some thunder will be possible, and thus, have expanded slight chance pops a little farther E than the NBM, with deepening theta-e advection enhancing deeper ascent for an increase in scattered convection across the region after daybreak Monday. The NBM again remains much too bullish with its likely pops areawide Monday, and thus have backed off and confined likely pops to SW AR/NE LA where the high-res guidance suggest an uptick of convection by mid to late morning over these areas. With the bulk of the convection exiting the region by early to mid-afternoon Monday with the departing trough, it should not tap into the meat of the increasing SBCapes that will develop through the day with insolation, although steep lapse rates of 7.5-8.0 C/km will contribute to large scale ascent which may result in isolated hailers before growing downstream across Ern AR/NCntrl MS. Given the increasing PW's coupled with diurnal heating, still may see an uptick in widely scattered convection during the afternoon across Deep E TX/NCntrl LA before diminishing by SErly evening.

This afternoon's water vapor imagery depicts that the closed low that spun off the OH/MS Valley trough Friday as migrated a little farther W of Baja this afternoon, although the medium range guidance suggests that it should begin to drift E across the peninsula by Monday night, across Nrn Old MX through the day Tuesday before emerging out into W TX by daybreak Wednesday. This is slightly slower than earlier runs (which is not surprising given the more Wwd position of the low this afternoon), with SW flow aloft ahead of the low setting up over the region Tuesday.
This will result in the potential for weak perturbations to eject NE across N and NE TX into SE OK/adjacent SW AR by afternoon along an increasing SWrly LLJ, which may result in scattered convection development over these areas. Did back off on the likely pops that the NBM continued to advertise especially given the trend with the model solutions have had in ejecting the closed low out too quickly in recent days, although increased forcing ahead of the opening low Tuesday night should yield an increase in convection over E TX/SE OK/SW AR. With a broad warm/moist sector expanding N across the Srn Plains/Ozarks and MS Valley, increasing shear and large scale forcing ahead of the trough will yield to expanding and eventually linear convection development over WCntrl and N TX/Cntrl OK Tuesday night, as it shifts E through the region Wednesday. Some uncertainty remains as to whether this convection will remain/be severe given the lull in sfc-based instability during the pre and just beyond the post-dawn hours, although a later arrival into our region after daybreak Wednesday will yield better instability/severe potential especially as insolation commences ahead of the convection.

The convection should diminish from W to E with the departure of the trough Wednesday night, with cooler and drier conditions returning in its wake Thursday with the trough's attendant cold fropa. This will be short-lived though as much warmer and eventually more humid conditions return for late week into next weekend once a Srly low level flow is re-established. However, the potential for any additional convection remains out of range of the long term period.

15

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Ceilings to become MVFR/IFR this evening across area terminals and could fall as low as LIFR by daybreak. An upper-level disturbance will generate a chance for showers and thunderstorms across all terminal sites from 09/12Z through 10/00Z. Otherwise, light southerly winds tonight to increase to near 10 knots on Monday.
/05/

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Issued at 132 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon or tonight, but may be needed Monday across the region. /15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
SHV 63 81 68 83 / 20 50 20 10 MLU 63 81 65 85 / 10 60 20 0 DEQ 52 76 63 78 / 10 60 20 50 TXK 61 81 68 82 / 20 60 20 30 ELD 58 77 65 83 / 10 70 20 10 TYR 62 82 68 82 / 30 50 10 30 GGG 62 81 67 83 / 20 50 10 20 LFK 64 82 67 84 / 20 40 10 10

SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.