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FXUS62 KTAE 091430 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 930 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

New UPDATE

UPDATE
Issued at 928 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Forecast looks to be on track. No updates required.

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 249 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Mild temperatures are expected today with highs in the middle 70s and lows tonight only dipping into the lower to middle 60s. This is thanks to a southerly breeze ahead of a cold front forecast to move through on Sunday. Rain chances remain highest across the western portions of the Florida Panhandle and the Wiregrass through the afternoon before increasing from west to east ahead of the cold front Saturday night.

Richer low-level moisture is analyzed at 925mb and 850mb over the western Florida Panhandle this morning. As a result, several showers have been ongoing just west of our area throughout the overnight hours. This moisture is forecast to slowly move east and is why rain chances remain highest for the western Florida Panhandle and Wiregrass regions through the afternoon.

A line of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms is forecast to be entering southeastern Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle near the end of the period. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather for areas along and west of a line from Dothan to Panama City. Isolated damaging wind gusts are the primary concern as the line enters our area, but an isolated tornado cannot be entirely ruled out.

SHORT TERM
(Sunday through Monday night)
Issued at 249 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Fairly widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected to push through the area Sunday ahead of a fairly strong cold front. Large scale lift provided by the right entrance region of the upper level jet along with fairly decent instability and a bit of wind shear will allow for pretty widespread coverage of showers and storms, although the overall severe threat appears marginal.
A few storms could be strong to severe with the primary threat being damaging winds and a brief tornado or two. Interestingly, it seems like the low level jet may increase a bit through the day Sunday, keeping some severe threat present even as the storms move eastward into the northern Peninsula and south Central GA Sunday afternoon. SPC has placed most of the area in a Marginal Risk for severe weather Sunday.

Although moisture return doesn't appear quite as robust as on previous model runs, there does seem to be a surge of PWs near 1.6 to 1.7 inches right ahead of the front. A widespread 1 to 3 inches of rainfall will be possible across the area between today and Sunday, with Florida zones most likely to see 3 inches.
Heavier totals will be possible in a few isolated areas, but it's still too soon to parse out exactly where that might be.
Ordinarily this rainfall wouldn't be too big of a deal, but given already saturated conditions across much of Florida and into far southern GA, the heavier totals could cause some minor flooding and/or rises on area rivers. As a result, WPC has placed most of the area in a Marginal Risk for heavy rainfall Sunday.

Cold and dry conditions are expected to push into the area in the wake of the front, with lows Sunday night forecast in the low to mid 30s. Highs on Monday are forecast to be quite cold in the low to mid 50s. Monday night is forecast to be the coldest of the week with lows in the upper 20s to mid 30s.

LONG TERM
(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 249 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

A very slow but persistent warming and moistening trend is expected through the rest of the week with surface high pressure to the north keeping northeasterly winds staunchly in place across the area. Towards the tail end of the week, another Gulf low may begin to develop and head towards Florida over the weekend. However it is far too soon to nail down any details at this time.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 626 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

VFR conditions are generally expected to prevail at KABY, KTLH, and KVLD through Saturday before dropping to MVFR later tonight as a storm system moves in from the west. Speaking of the storm system, light to moderate rain is ongoing just west of KECP and KDHN and anticipate it remaining west of the aerodromes until mid to late morning.

Ceilings at KECP and KDHN are the most challenging as it greatly depends on if rain is falling near/over the aerodromes later this morning into tonight. If rain does fall over these TAF sites, then IFR conditions cannot be entirely ruled out. So amendments are possible for these two TAF sites. Periodic showers, maybe an isolated thunderstorm, are possible for KECP and KDHN most of the day starting later this afternoon into the overnight.

Near the end of the TAF period, at cold front will be knocking on the doorstep to KDHN, maybe KECP. Elsewhere, fog is possible, but probabilities for fog less than 1 mile have come up, so kept MVFR visibilities to show the potential.

MARINE
Issued at 249 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Moderate southeast flow will continue through Saturday night or Sunday morning on the periphery of high pressure centered west of Bermuda. A strong cold front will blast across the waters on Sunday, followed by a quick shift to strong or near-gale northwest winds which will peak on Sunday night. Gale headlines may eventually be needed. Winds will gradually decrease on Monday, then clock around on Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure passes by to the north.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 249 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

Fire weather concerns are low the next several days. A cold front will bring a wetting rain later Saturday night into Sunday. Drier conditions are expected most of next week with fair dispersions anticipated areawide.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 249 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

All of our area rivers and streams remain below flood stage this morning. Rain chances are forecast to increase today through Sunday as another cold front pushes across the area. A widespread 1 to 3 inches will be possible across the area, particularly across Florida, with isolated higher amounts possible. WPC has placed us in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall both today and Sunday. While rainfall totals as high as last weekend are not expected, pockets of heavier rainfall on top of already saturated soils and elevated rivers could lead to some minor flooding and isolated flash flooding on Sunday. No further rainfall is expected Monday through Friday, with rain chances returning again next weekend.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 249 AM EST Sat Dec 9 2023

All of our area rivers and streams remain below flood stage this morning. Rain chances are forecast to increase today through Sunday as another cold front pushes across the area. A widespread 1 to 3 inches will be possible across the area, particularly across Florida, with isolated higher amounts possible. WPC has placed us in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall both today and Sunday. While rainfall totals as high as last weekend are not expected, pockets of heavier rainfall on top of already saturated soils and elevated rivers could lead to some minor flooding and isolated flash flooding on Sunday. No further rainfall is expected Monday through Friday, with rain chances returning again next weekend.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 75 63 69 37 / 10 50 100 20 Panama City 73 65 70 37 / 30 80 100 10 Dothan 74 64 67 33 / 40 90 90 10 Albany 75 62 68 34 / 10 60 100 20 Valdosta 78 62 71 36 / 0 40 100 40 Cross City 80 62 74 39 / 0 40 90 50 Apalachicola 71 67 69 39 / 20 60 100 10

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 1 PM EST Monday for GMZ730-755-765-775.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 3 PM CST Sunday for GMZ750-752- 770-772.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM to noon CST Monday for GMZ750-752- 770-772.

Gale Watch from Sunday afternoon through late Sunday night for GMZ750-752-770-772.

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