NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS62 KTAE 111115 AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 615 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

New AVIATION

NEAR TERM
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 342 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Colder and drier air will continue to push into the area in the wake of yesterday's cold front. Northerly winds will continue across the area with high temperatures only forecast to reach the mid 50s to near 60 across the area despite sunny skies. Tonight seems favorable for efficient radiational cooling with winds going calm and mostly clear skies. Therefore, lows are forecast in the upper 20s to mid 30s. Patchy frost will be possible across the area late tonight into early Tuesday morning.

SHORT TERM
(Tuesday through Wednesday night)
Issued at 342 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Ridging aloft will build in over the Caribbean with a surface high sliding from the MS Valley toward the Southeastern US with benign conditions expected through the short term. Daytime highs on Tuesday and Wednesday will generally remain within the upper 50s in our northernmost AL and GA counties with mid to upper 60s in our FL counties. Overnight lows will trend somewhat warmer on Tuesday and Wednesday night as moisture recovers somewhat with Tuesday night lows in the upper 30s to low 40s and widespread mid to upper 40s Wednesday night.

LONG TERM
(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 342 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

The aforementioned surface high will slide over the Ohio Valley and continue building, becoming quite strong in the process. This will serve to keep us quite dry for the majority of the period and keep the east-northeast surface flow locked in. A tight pressure gradient on the south end of the high will result in relatively gusty conditions along our immediate shoreline, decreasing noticeably further inland.

Throughout the period, an upper trough will gradually detach from the northern stream with a cutoff upper low forming between the Southwest US and Southern Plains. At the surface, long-range guidance indicates that a surface low will form somewhere in the western Gulf of Mexico, though placement and timing both remain somewhat uncertain. The GFS appears to favor a low developing Friday farther south in the Gulf, while the Euro favors a low developing along the Gulf Coast on Saturday. Both solutions paint different pictures as a low center closer to the coastline would increase our rain totals putting us comfortably under the rain shield, while a center more to our south would lower rain totals. Regardless, both models keep the warm front well to the south of our coastline which would suppress the severe weather threat.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 615 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

MARINE
Issued at 342 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Our marine zones will be the main focus of this forecast as less than ideal boating conditions are expected for the majority of the week. A brief lull in winds and seas is forecast to occur Monday through Tuesday morning as northeasterly winds become gentle and seas weaken to 2 to 3 feet. This lull will be short lived as high pressure to our north strengthens with winds freshening late Tuesday. An increase to a strong breeze, perhaps near gale force, is expected as early as Thursday morning lasting through the weekend with seas noticeably building as well.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 342 AM EST Mon Dec 11 2023

Cool and dry conditions are expected for the next several days with northerly winds becoming northeasterly as surface high pressure settles over the Southeast CONUS. There are currently no fire weather concerns for at least the next several days.

HYDROLOGY
Issued at 956 PM EST Sun Dec 10 2023

Heavy rain is done. The next hydrologically significant rainfall is not expected until next weekend.

So for now, we are watching riverine response to the 1 to 3 inches of rain that fell on Sunday across a large portion of the Florida Big Bend, with local amounts of 4 to 5 inches over Liberty and inland Gulf Counties. Coastal rivers were already running high from the heavy rain a week ago, so this new round of rain will keep coastal rivers running high from Panama City all the way around through Taylor County. It is possible that a river or two could touch minor flood stage. The latest river forecast for brings the Aucilla at Lamont back above flood, after only recently dipping beneath flood stage. Other rivers to watch will be the Saint Marks, Econfina, and Fenholloway.

The next round of rain is forecast starting around Friday, possibly persisting into next weekend. There is a wide range of possible outcomes for how much rain may fall, so it will be worth checking back in a few days. Coastal rivers will still be running high as we head into the next rain event 5-7 days out.

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 57 34 59 42 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 58 38 59 44 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 55 32 56 37 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 55 31 56 36 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 55 33 59 40 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 60 34 64 46 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 58 39 60 47 / 0 0 0 0

TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ108-112-114- 115.

GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ this afternoon for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Fort Rucker, AL,