Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Cuthbert, GA
May 14, 2024 10:14 PM EDT (02:14 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:38 AM Sunset 8:27 PM Moonrise 11:32 AM Moonset 1:03 AM |
Area Discussion for - Tallahassee, FL
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FXUS62 KTAE 150138 AFDTAE
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 938 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
New UPDATE, MARINE, HYDROLOGY
UPDATE
Issued at 921 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
The main change to tonight's forecast was to update rain chances based on current trends. Convection struggled all day to redevelop thanks to a persistent outflow channel of cirrus clouds fanning out from a decaying Gulf MCS. As such, PoPs were trimmed down this evening to chance/slight chance with the best potential across the Forgotten Coast into the FL Big Bend. After midnight, the convective potential increases in response to an approaching front from the west. The latest HRRR favors initiation around 6Z over Apalachee Bay in a SW-NE oriented cluster or band that extends into the Suwannee Valley. Pockets of heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning are likely to accompany this activity.
NEAR TERM
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Through this evening an upper level overcast cloud deck is moving north across the region from an MCS to our south in the Gulf. This cloud deck is looking to limit the development of any storms later as direct diurnal heating is cut off. A developing Cu field to the west, which in the models evolves into showers and possibly some storms later, looks to be dissipating as the overhead overcast reduces instability. It's possible the models are overdoing the convection or under-doing the cloud cover. However, with dew points back into the upper 60s and low 70s, there remains a possibility for some showers in any area that maintains a break in the clouds. A thunderstorm or two could be possible as well. There is low confidence in widespread coverage this afternoon and evening.
Once we get into tomorrow morning some redevelopment could be possible along the cold front, primarily across the FL Big Bend and southern Georgia as forcing for ascent is provided by the front. The front is expected to clear our region by noon with mostly clear skies expected tomorrow afternoon.
Expect daytime highs generally in the mid 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
SHORT TERM
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A needed break from severe weather is forecast through the middle/later part of the upcoming week as the local area will be under an approaching upper level ridge into Thursday night. At the surface, west to northwest flow will prevail and temperatures warm up for Thursday afternoon as high temperatures climb into the upper 80s and low 90s.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Strengthening southwesterly flow moves into the region beginning Friday and into upcoming weekend as moist southerly flow brings a return to instability across across the region. Timing of any specific severe weather threat still remains uncertain and much of that has to do with the weak impulses that will be embedded in the southwesterly flow driving the severe threat. The first shortwave approaches southern AL/MS by daybreak Friday and while much of the severe threat with this is likely to stay off to the west and northwest as it lifts north of the forecast area, we'll need to monitor how the mesoscale details evolve later into the week. Instability will be hard to come by in the morning hours of Friday, but that could change through the day with afternoon heating and additional moisture advection from the Gulf. For now severe weather is generally not expected but upstream MCS potential will need to be monitored as we approach Friday.
After Friday the trough continues east with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely as several disturbances move through Friday night into Saturday. The evolution of these showers/storms, and if any storms can attain greater organization, is rather uncertain but with modest instability and 40 to 50 knots of deep- layer shear, some storm organization is possible which could bring more severe weather to the region. Continue to monitor conditions through the week.
Northwesterly upper level flow sets up for Sunday and into early next week, likely allowing things to dry out.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A few showers are passing near KECP and KDHN this evening, so kept VCSH in the TAFs for a few hours for them. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected elsewhere with light to moderate winds out of the south to southwest much of the evening. There is a chance most, if not all, TAF sites could experience MVFR conditions later tonight into early Wednesday morning as a weak front moves through the area. This front will be the focal point for more showers and thunderstorms after 09Z tonight; most guidance has this activity remaining south and east of our TAF sites, however, it's close enough to KTLH and KVLD to include some VCTS in their TAFs for early Wednesday morning. Any showers and storms that do develop should push southeast of the region. VFR conditions are then expected during the day Wednesday with light to moderate westerly winds that could be a little gusty at times in the afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 921 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
The West Tampa Buoy (42036) was reporting a nearly 20-kt sustained SSW wind earlier this evening with 4-ft seas and a dominant period of 5 sec. Meanwhile, the Cedar Key Station CYF1 has been reporting SSW winds around 20 kts with a recent gust of 26 kts. Overnight forecast hourly winds were increased over the waters to account for these observations that seem to be in response to a decaying storm complex passing just due south of Apalachee Bay. Such changes are also better in line with the existing Small Craft Advisory that is in effect until 12Z.
From CWF Synopsis...Maritime convection is still expected to redevelop overnight ahead of an approaching front, especially across Apalachee Bay, which likely keeps advisory to near advisory conditions in place until just after daybreak on Wednesday.
Benign conditions move in for late Wednesday and Thursday before another system moves through over the weekend likely bringing advisory level winds and seas.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A frontal system will be moving across the region over the next day, behind it we'll have elevated winds leading to high dispersions tomorrow and Thursday. Additional rainfall through tomorrow is expected to generally be confined to the FL Big Bend and Southern Georgia. A few light showers could pop up across SE Alabama later this afternoon and evening. Given the recent wetting rains that have occurred over the last few days, there are currently no fire weather concerns.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 921 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Evening riverine update: A Flood Warning was issued for Withlacoochee River - Valdosta Skipper Bridge, which is currently in minor flood stage. The latest forecast shows cresting tomorrow, then falling into action stage by late Thursday or early Friday.
Ochlockonee River - Thomasville was excluded from an issuance as the forecast to barely above minor flood may be a bit overdone.
Rivers along the Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Basins are rising due to rainfall from the past 4 days and some will reach minor flood stage through the middle of the week. Other rivers in the region are slowly climbing but reaching minor flood stage is not expected at these rivers. Additional rainfall is forecast this weekend and this could bring further rises on area rivers or extend the time in flood later this week. Rainfall amounts generally will be around 1 to 3 inches, with the heavier amounts across Georgia and Alabama but wouldn't be surprised if we see some of these higher amounts shift south.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 69 88 67 91 / 50 10 0 0 Panama City 72 84 69 86 / 30 0 0 0 Dothan 67 86 63 88 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 68 85 64 87 / 30 0 0 0 Valdosta 70 87 66 88 / 60 20 0 0 Cross City 70 85 68 88 / 80 50 0 0 Apalachicola 74 83 72 85 / 60 20 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Wednesday for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 938 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
New UPDATE, MARINE, HYDROLOGY
UPDATE
Issued at 921 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
The main change to tonight's forecast was to update rain chances based on current trends. Convection struggled all day to redevelop thanks to a persistent outflow channel of cirrus clouds fanning out from a decaying Gulf MCS. As such, PoPs were trimmed down this evening to chance/slight chance with the best potential across the Forgotten Coast into the FL Big Bend. After midnight, the convective potential increases in response to an approaching front from the west. The latest HRRR favors initiation around 6Z over Apalachee Bay in a SW-NE oriented cluster or band that extends into the Suwannee Valley. Pockets of heavy rain, gusty winds, and lightning are likely to accompany this activity.
NEAR TERM
(Through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Through this evening an upper level overcast cloud deck is moving north across the region from an MCS to our south in the Gulf. This cloud deck is looking to limit the development of any storms later as direct diurnal heating is cut off. A developing Cu field to the west, which in the models evolves into showers and possibly some storms later, looks to be dissipating as the overhead overcast reduces instability. It's possible the models are overdoing the convection or under-doing the cloud cover. However, with dew points back into the upper 60s and low 70s, there remains a possibility for some showers in any area that maintains a break in the clouds. A thunderstorm or two could be possible as well. There is low confidence in widespread coverage this afternoon and evening.
Once we get into tomorrow morning some redevelopment could be possible along the cold front, primarily across the FL Big Bend and southern Georgia as forcing for ascent is provided by the front. The front is expected to clear our region by noon with mostly clear skies expected tomorrow afternoon.
Expect daytime highs generally in the mid 80s to low 90s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s.
SHORT TERM
(Wednesday night through Thursday night)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A needed break from severe weather is forecast through the middle/later part of the upcoming week as the local area will be under an approaching upper level ridge into Thursday night. At the surface, west to northwest flow will prevail and temperatures warm up for Thursday afternoon as high temperatures climb into the upper 80s and low 90s.
LONG TERM
(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Strengthening southwesterly flow moves into the region beginning Friday and into upcoming weekend as moist southerly flow brings a return to instability across across the region. Timing of any specific severe weather threat still remains uncertain and much of that has to do with the weak impulses that will be embedded in the southwesterly flow driving the severe threat. The first shortwave approaches southern AL/MS by daybreak Friday and while much of the severe threat with this is likely to stay off to the west and northwest as it lifts north of the forecast area, we'll need to monitor how the mesoscale details evolve later into the week. Instability will be hard to come by in the morning hours of Friday, but that could change through the day with afternoon heating and additional moisture advection from the Gulf. For now severe weather is generally not expected but upstream MCS potential will need to be monitored as we approach Friday.
After Friday the trough continues east with widespread showers and thunderstorms likely as several disturbances move through Friday night into Saturday. The evolution of these showers/storms, and if any storms can attain greater organization, is rather uncertain but with modest instability and 40 to 50 knots of deep- layer shear, some storm organization is possible which could bring more severe weather to the region. Continue to monitor conditions through the week.
Northwesterly upper level flow sets up for Sunday and into early next week, likely allowing things to dry out.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 724 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A few showers are passing near KECP and KDHN this evening, so kept VCSH in the TAFs for a few hours for them. Otherwise, generally VFR conditions are expected elsewhere with light to moderate winds out of the south to southwest much of the evening. There is a chance most, if not all, TAF sites could experience MVFR conditions later tonight into early Wednesday morning as a weak front moves through the area. This front will be the focal point for more showers and thunderstorms after 09Z tonight; most guidance has this activity remaining south and east of our TAF sites, however, it's close enough to KTLH and KVLD to include some VCTS in their TAFs for early Wednesday morning. Any showers and storms that do develop should push southeast of the region. VFR conditions are then expected during the day Wednesday with light to moderate westerly winds that could be a little gusty at times in the afternoon.
MARINE
Issued at 921 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
The West Tampa Buoy (42036) was reporting a nearly 20-kt sustained SSW wind earlier this evening with 4-ft seas and a dominant period of 5 sec. Meanwhile, the Cedar Key Station CYF1 has been reporting SSW winds around 20 kts with a recent gust of 26 kts. Overnight forecast hourly winds were increased over the waters to account for these observations that seem to be in response to a decaying storm complex passing just due south of Apalachee Bay. Such changes are also better in line with the existing Small Craft Advisory that is in effect until 12Z.
From CWF Synopsis...Maritime convection is still expected to redevelop overnight ahead of an approaching front, especially across Apalachee Bay, which likely keeps advisory to near advisory conditions in place until just after daybreak on Wednesday.
Benign conditions move in for late Wednesday and Thursday before another system moves through over the weekend likely bringing advisory level winds and seas.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
A frontal system will be moving across the region over the next day, behind it we'll have elevated winds leading to high dispersions tomorrow and Thursday. Additional rainfall through tomorrow is expected to generally be confined to the FL Big Bend and Southern Georgia. A few light showers could pop up across SE Alabama later this afternoon and evening. Given the recent wetting rains that have occurred over the last few days, there are currently no fire weather concerns.
HYDROLOGY
Issued at 921 PM EDT Tue May 14 2024
Evening riverine update: A Flood Warning was issued for Withlacoochee River - Valdosta Skipper Bridge, which is currently in minor flood stage. The latest forecast shows cresting tomorrow, then falling into action stage by late Thursday or early Friday.
Ochlockonee River - Thomasville was excluded from an issuance as the forecast to barely above minor flood may be a bit overdone.
Rivers along the Ochlockonee and Withlacoochee Basins are rising due to rainfall from the past 4 days and some will reach minor flood stage through the middle of the week. Other rivers in the region are slowly climbing but reaching minor flood stage is not expected at these rivers. Additional rainfall is forecast this weekend and this could bring further rises on area rivers or extend the time in flood later this week. Rainfall amounts generally will be around 1 to 3 inches, with the heavier amounts across Georgia and Alabama but wouldn't be surprised if we see some of these higher amounts shift south.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Tallahassee 69 88 67 91 / 50 10 0 0 Panama City 72 84 69 86 / 30 0 0 0 Dothan 67 86 63 88 / 10 0 0 0 Albany 68 85 64 87 / 30 0 0 0 Valdosta 70 87 66 88 / 60 20 0 0 Cross City 70 85 68 88 / 80 50 0 0 Apalachicola 74 83 72 85 / 60 20 0 0
TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT /7 AM CDT/ Wednesday for GMZ730-750-752-755-765-770-772-775.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KEUF WEEDON FIELD,AL | 22 sm | 16 min | SSW 06 | 10 sm | Clear | 75°F | 68°F | 78% | 29.75 |
Fort Rucker, AL,
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