Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Montgomery, GA

KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Scattered thunderstorms expected Sunday with an isolated severe threat possible.

- 2) A strong cold front will pass through southeast GA and southeast SC on Monday bringing the potential for severe thunderstorms, very gusty winds outside of storms, and brief periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.

- 3) Frost/freeze is possible Monday night and Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Scattered thunderstorms expected Sunday with an isolated severe threat possible.

As high pressure situates itself across Georgia and the Carolinas, a coastal trough sharpening offshore will lift northwards across the region with an associated warm front tomorrow morning. As this warm front lifts across the region, a plume of moisture will surge into area with it as PWATS range from 1-1.5 inches. This will yield a supportive environment for scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms throughout tomorrow. 12Z HRRR indicates convection initiating offshore early on Sunday morning, and then slowly moving northwestward into the rest of region throughout the morning. Shower and thunderstorm activity will likely persist through the evening before another system tracks towards the region. The near-storm environment continues to look interesting with the warm front in the vicinity as MLCAPE values range from 1000-1500 J/kg and 0-1km rises near 30 kt. 12Z HRRR forecast soundings show some decently veering profiles in the afternoon, which could be an indication of a low-end tornado threat (esp. for interior southeast Georgia). SPC has highlighted the region in a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather tomorrow, with damaging winds gusts being the primary risk for tomorrow. While the environment lacks the magnitude of the severe weather threat on Monday (discussed in Key Message 2), it will bear watching as a sneaky severe threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2: A strong cold front will pass through southeast GA and southeast SC on Monday bringing the potential for severe thunderstorms, very gusty winds outside of storms, and brief periods of moderate to heavy rainfall.

Severe Thunderstorms: As a large and deepening mid-lvl trough ejects out of the Ohio River Valley and tracks towards the Mid-Atlatnic on Monday, an associated strong cold front will track into the region late Monday morning and shift off the coastline by mid-afternoon.
Expect some isolated convection ahead of this front early Monday morning, followed by linear convection along the front. It's possible a couple of these isolated cells in the early morning could become severe fairly quickly as the near-storm environment appears favorable for it. However, the greatest concern remains to be in the afternoon as the front nears, and daytime heating yields a high degree of destabilization. The forecast area will be positioned within the warm sector ahead of the front with temps. warming into the mid to upper 70s an dewpoints rising into the upper 60s, yielding MLCAPE values above 1000 J/kg. Additionally, the ambient wind field looks rather impressive with 0-6km shear ~50kt and 0-3km shear ~40kt in the afternoon. Mid-lvl lapse rates may be modest, however sufficient low-lvl moisture and strong forcing should compensate and allow for robust updraft development in the afternoon.
12Z HRRR forecast soundings show some indication of veering (esp. in southeast South Carolina), but the majority display unidirectional hodographs despite the magnitude of shear. Regardless, a tornado threat still appears present ahead of the front and within the main line of convection as the front passes through. There remains to be some model disagreement between the timing of the front, however the main line of convection should reach interior southeast Georgia by late morning. Therefore, SPC has highlighted a majority of the region in a slight risk (level 2/5) and a portion of southeast South Carolina in an enhanced risk (level 3/5). Damaging wind gusts are certainly the primary threat, followed by a couple isolated tornadoes, and hail threat certainly being a distant third.

Gusty Winds: This will be the primary threat as the strengthening wind field expands across the region ahead of the front on Monday morning. Strong momentum aloft will easily mix to the surface on Monday morning, allowing for strong non-thunderstorm wind gusts through the morning and into the afternoon. Some wind gusts could exceed 35 mph across the region, and therefore a Lake Wind Advisory will almost certainly be needed, with even the possibility of a Wind Advisory needed for a portion of the area.

Rainfall: Forecast precipitable water values are expected to reach around 1.2-1.5 inches ahead of the front, which is well above climatological normals for mid-March. This is an indication that the atmosphere is capable of producing efficient rainfall rates within thunderstorms, however these heavier bursts will likely be short- lived given the expected forward speed of these storms. This will reduce the overall threat of excessive rainfall. Rainfall amounts range from 0.5-1.0 inches, with localized higher amounts possible within training thunderstorms. Thus, at this time, the risk for intense rainfall producing flooding appears rather low.

Residents across southeast South Carolina and southeast Georgia should continue to closely monitor the forecast through the weekend as details regarding timing, storm intensity, and hazards become clearer as Monday approaches.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Frost/freeze is possible Monday night and Tuesday night.

Cold high pressure will build across the region behind a cold front shifting offshore Monday. An advection freeze is possible Monday night, mainly for inland areas of Southeast GA and SC where temps are forecast to dip into the lower 30s for at least a few hours Monday night into Tuesday morning. The surface high is then anticipated to settle over the area Tuesday, favoring winds that decouple quickly under clear skies Tuesday evening. This should favor a radiational cooling component away from the coast (where the pressure gradient is weak) in addition to the cooler air mass already in place, setting the stage for a fairly widespread frost and/or freeze event as temps drop into the upper 20s inland to low- mid 30s closer to the coast. Frost/Freeze headlines are likely for both nights, with greatest impacts anticipated Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. There is a lower risk for frost inland Thursday night as temps lower into the mid 30s and a light northerly wind is in place. However, areas or widespread frost appear less likely during predawn hours Thursday compared to the previous mornings.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail at CHS/JZI/SAV terminals through 06Z Sunday. There are some indications that flight restrictions are possible at the terminals between 06Z-12Z tonight, with the greater chance at SAV due to patchy fog developing in advance of a warm front, but the window appears somewhat limited before scattered showers develop by around daybreak Sunday. Flight restrictions are then possible for showers developing across the area as a coastal trough/warm front lifts north across the region Sunday morning. PROB30 groups remain in place between 12Z-18/19Z Sunday for this activity, starting at 12Z at SAV and 14Z at CHS/JZI. Prevailing MVFR groups and TEMPO thunderstorms could eventually be needed in the Sunday 14Z-19Z time range.
Thereafter, latest guidance indicates VFR conditions at all terminals through 00Z Monday, prior to additional showers (and possibly thunderstorms) occurring Sunday night.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Brief flight restrictions are possible with showers and thunderstorms Sunday evening as the local area becomes warm-sectored ahead of a cold front arriving Monday.
Greater chances for MVFR or lower conditions occur at all terminals with showers/thunderstorms prior to and near the passing front Monday. Gusty winds are also anticipated outside of shower and/or thunderstorm activity at all terminals Monday.

MARINE
Through Tonight: High pressure will give way to a coastal trough/warm front shifting north across the area approaching daybreak Sunday. Wind/seas are expected to remain well below Small Craft Advisory levels during this period, but shower and thunderstorm activity could develop across Georgia coastal waters a few hours prior to daybreak, a few of which could be strong near the northward lifting warm front Sunday.

Strong southerly winds will develop across local waters Sunday night into Monday ahead of a cold front approaching the Southeast United States early week. Solid Small Craft Advisory level conditions are expected prior to and during cold fropa. Additionally, there is a low-end potential for gale force wind gusts across nearshore SC waters (including the Charleston Harbor) and outer Georgia waters Monday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to linger into Tuesday morning/afternoon, before subsiding.

EQUIPMENT
The KCLX radar is scheduled for radome panel replacement March 17-20, 2026. The radar will be down during this time. Users are encouraged to use data from the following nearby radar sites during the maintenance outage:

KCAE - Columbia, SC KLTX - Wilmington, NC KJAX - Jacksonville, FL KVAX - Moody AFB, GA KJGX - Robbins AFB, GA

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.