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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 1249 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
This afternoon..SE winds 5 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Patchy fog early. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Tonight..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Patchy fog in the evening, then areas of fog after midnight.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Areas of fog in the morning. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sun night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Mon..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Tue night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 1249 Pm Est Sat Dec 2 2023
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. A cold front will approach from the west today, before passing through the area Sunday evening. High pressure will then prevail through much of next week.

FXUS62 KCHS 021517 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1017 AM EST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
A cold front will approach from the west today, before passing through the area Sunday evening. High pressure will then prevail through much of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Quick update to cancel the Marine Dense Fog Advisory. Patchy fog will persist across the marine waters and coastal region through early this afternoon. Otherwise, forecast is on track.

Today: Overall, the pattern aloft doesn't look much different than it did 24 hours ago with southwest flow expected to prevail. At the surface, the forecast area will remain solidly within the warm sector of a cold front that will track slowly eastward across the Deep South. Rain chances and periods of rain look like they will largely be determined by convection today.
The HRRR and HRRR seem to have a pretty good handle on the current radar depiction and have been used try and determine the timing of increasing rain chances and potential thunderstorm activity. It appears that through midday we will be dealing with little more than mostly light rain showers streaming in from the southwest. Rain chances are pretty low through this period accordingly. Then around midday we should see increasing convection arrive from the southwest, which appears to be nicely tied to a surge in low-level ThetaE. This convection should spread across the entire forecast area through the rest of the afternoon and rain chances increase into the 80+ percent range for the 2-5 pm period. We have included a slight chance of thunder as model guidance support weak instability just about everywhere. There severe threat looks to be very low however, thanks to the weak instability and modest wind fields. Rainfall amounts don't appear to be terribly impressive, with most places around a quarter of an inch and max amounts upwards of half an inch.

Tonight: The area of rainfall with embedded isolated thunderstorms will push through during the evening and we should see lull in rain coverage by around midnight. Other than an occasional passing shower or area of light rain, much of the late night period is expected to be dry as the upstream cold front draws closer. We will have to watch for fog development beginning in the evening once again. The best chance for more significant fog will be along the coast where marine fog could occasionally push onshore. There is a chance for some locally dense fog, but confidence isn't particularly high as low-level winds are expected to pick up late. Temperatures will be mild once again, with low to mid 60s for lows.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
The forecast area will remain in the warm sector into Sunday ahead of a cold front. Shower activity will linger through the morning and into the afternoon, then rain chances should be on a decreasing trend during the latter half of the day. Coverage doesn't look particularly high and PoPs were lowered largely into the 40-50% range for most locations. Highs are expected to reach the mid 70s. Dry weather is then expected for much of the overnight as deeper moisture pushes offshore with the front.
Lows will range from the upper 40s/near 50 far inland to mid/upper 50s closer to the coast.

Quiet and dry weather will persist Monday and Tuesday as PWats fall to under 0.5 inches - well below climo. High pressure will be the primary surface feature, however a couple areas of low pressure will pass by to the north. Highs in the upper 60s/near 70 on Monday will cool to the low 60s for Tuesday. Lows Monday night will mainly be in the low to mid 40s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
Cooler high pressure will settle into the region for midweek following passage of a dry cold front late Tuesday night. The airmass will begin to moderate late week as the high shifts offshore. No significant weather concerns are expected through the period with rain-free conditions in the forecast.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
The 12z TAF period will be quite challenging, first due to fog and low stratus issues, second due to rainfall moving through with isolated thunderstorms, then finally with what could be another round of fog and stratus beginning this evening and continuing through the overnight.

At KCHS and KJZI: The KJZI web cam shows that dense fog has steadily moved back in over the last hour. This fog and low stratus should make a run for KCHS over the next hour or two as well. Fog and low stratus should improve by late this morning.
Rain chances increase significantly as we get into the afternoon hours and continue into the evening. There is a potential for a thunderstorm later this afternoon, but confidence isn't high enough to include explicitly in the TAF this far out. The rain will shift offshore during the late evening and then model guidance is quite pessimistic with another round of fog and stratus for the overnight. Low-level wind fields look to be stronger, so this may favor stratus over fog.

At KSAV: Any ongoing fog should improve over the next couple of hours. Rainfall is moving in from the southwest and should start impacting the terminal by at least 14z. Mostly light rain and occasional MVFR conditions should impact the terminal into the afternoon. Model guidance then shows the best chance for a thunderstorm in the late afternoon and early evening, but confidence still isn't high enough to explicitly mention in the TAF. The rain will shift offshore during the late evening and then model guidance is quite pessimistic with another round of fog and stratus for the overnight. Low-level wind fields look to be stronger, so this may favor stratus over fog.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions in low clouds and showers will likely persist into Sunday afternoon.
Conditions should then improve to VFR for Monday.

MARINE
Today through tonight: Winds today are expected to mostly be southerly with speeds of 10 knots or less. Late tonight winds should turn more southwesterly and begin to increase more into the 10-15 knot range. Seas should be highest this morning with 2-4 feet across all waters and up to 5 feet in the outer Georgia waters and near the 20 nm line in the Charleston County waters.
Overnight, seas should average 2-4 feet.

Fog: The Dense Fog Advisory was canceled at 10 AM as local webcams and observations showed only patchy fog across the region. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to spread in during the afternoon. This activity will pass through later this evening and then we could again see fog and low stratus issues overnight. Any sea fog that develops tonight could linger over the coastal waters into Sunday. Have included mention of patchy fog through mid-day Sunday, but this could need to be expanded in coverage and time. Guidance indicates improving conditions during the latter half of Sunday.

Sunday through Thursday: Southwest winds will persist on Sunday ahead of a cold front. Winds will turn westerly following fropa and increase later Monday into Monday night. A brief period of gusts near 25 knots will be possible mainly across the Charleston county waters and outer Georgia waters but looks pretty marginal at this point. Perhaps the better chance for Small Craft Advisories will be Wednesday behind another cold front. Conditions will improve for Thursday as high pressure shifts overhead.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Florida Passage
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Sat -- 05:48 AM EST     0.71 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:07 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 11:42 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:53 AM EST     7.38 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:20 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:26 PM EST     1.09 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 10:12 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Florida Passage, Ogeechee River, Georgia, Tide feet

Savannah River Entrance
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Sat -- 12:20 AM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:38 AM EST     -1.52 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 06:16 AM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:52 AM EST     1.85 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 11:41 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 12:39 PM EST     -0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 03:56 PM EST     -1.69 knots Max Ebb
Sat -- 05:18 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:55 PM EST     0.00 knots Slack
Sat -- 09:21 PM EST     1.45 knots Max Flood
Sat -- 10:11 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current, knots

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