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Marine Weather and Tides Montgomery, GA Version 3.4

NOTICE 12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed. 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

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Sunrise 7:20AM

Sunset 5:50PM

Thursday January 23, 2020 6:36 AM EST (11:36 UTC)

Moonrise 6:29AM

Moonset 4:47PM

Illumination 3%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montgomery, GA

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Area Discussion for - Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 231127 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 627 AM EST Thu Jan 23 2020

SYNOPSIS. A storm system will impact the region tonight through Friday night. High pressure will return Saturday and persist into early next week before a weak low pressure system approaches the area during the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. Minor adjustments were made to introduce slight chance pops along the middle Georgia about 1-2 hours earlier than previously advertised. The rest of the forecast is on track.

H5 ridging will steady break down today as a deep trough over the Plains is reinforced by a shortwave digging southeast out of eastern Wyoming. A weak coastal trough is beginning to take shape off the Georgia and southern South Carolina coastal waters early this morning and will slowly sharpen through the day in response to high pressure shifting offshore the Mid- Atlantic states. The combination of weak coastal convergence induced by steady northeast winds from off the Atlantic and subtle 290-295K isentropic assent atop the coastal trough could provide just enough forcing produce isolated shower activity along the Georgia coast later today. High resolution guidance is not overly aggressive on the development of measurable rainfall within the resident dry and stable airmass that has been in place for the past few days, but there is enough of signal in the guidance to support 20% pops along parts of the Georgia coastal counties, mainly this morning.

The various statistical guidance packages have been exhibiting a rather cool bias over the past several days and the 23/00z cycle looks to be no different. H8 temperatures will remain nearly static through late morning, but are forecast to begin to slowly rise in response to increasing warm air advection ahead of the approaching storm system. Generally favored the warmer RAP and H3R hourly temperatures over the NAM/GFS/ECMWF- based MOS products to derive the high temperature forecast, but did not go quite as warm as some of the other mesoscale members would suggest. Forecast soundings do show quite a bit of warm air aloft atop a strong low-level inversion and if the inversion can mix out sufficiently by early afternoon, these warmer numbers could be realized. For now, highs from the upper 50s to around 60 will be highlighted, but further refinements will be made as the day progresses.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/. Tonight: A powerful upper low will dig into the mid-Mississippi Valley tonight. Strong warm air advection/isentropic assent within a strong low-level jet will support a rather large area of rainfall moving across the Deep South and eventually the Southeast States overnight. The coastal trough will eventually move inland and north as warm frontal feature late, bringing the entire forecast area within the warm sector by sunrise Friday. As has been the case all winter, the synoptic models appear to be too slow with the eastward movement of the rain shield. Most of the higher resolution guidance members, including the H3R, are about 2-4 hours quicker than the 23/00z synoptic mean, which looks more reasonable based on cold-season model trends. Expect numerous showers to be impacting the area along/west of the I-95 corridor by daybreak and pops have been adjusted to reflect this. Pops will range from 60-70% west of I-95 to 30-50% elsewhere. Rainfall amounts will be light, generally averaging only a few hundredths prior to daybreak. Lows will range from the mid 40s inland to the lower-mid 50s at the coast, but these will likely occur at various times through the night with temperatures either hold steady or very slowly rising at the coast late as the warm frontal feature approaches the coast and moves north.

Friday: Strong isentropic lift associated with a northward moving coastal trough/warm front should support scattered to numerous showers across the area to start off the day ahead of a low pressure system and associated sfc cold front approaching the region from the west during the afternoon/evening. Southerly flow will help drive warm and moist air across the area ahead of the approaching cold front, favoring greater precip coverage as the front enters western zones late afternoon/early evening. A few thunderstorms could occur along/ahead of the front, mainly during afternoon/evening hours when temps are warmest, but widespread clouds and previous showers should limit overall instability. Given the setup, any thunderstorms are expected to remain weak as the front pushes through the area. In general, high temps should range in the mid/upper 60s (warmest across Southeast Georgia). Numerous to potentially widespread showers should continue to track across the area with the cold front during evening hours, then quickly shift offshore around midnight as dry high pressure builds in wake of the departing front. Overnight lows should dip into the low/mid 40s post fropa.

Saturday: Dry sfc high pressure will spread across the region along the southern edge of a large mid-lvl trough centered over the eastern Great Lakes. Temps will be cooler within a west sfc wind, ranging in the mid/upper 50s inland and north to around 60 degrees closer to the coast and south of I-16. These sfc temps along with cold air advection aloft should help produce sufficient mixing into 30-40 kt low-lvl wind fields, thus favoring 15-20 mph westerly sfc winds during peak heating hours (highest near the coast). Dry high pressure will prevail through overnight hours. Clear skies and weaker winds should support low temps in the mid/upper 30s away from the coast.

Sunday: Weak high pressure will remain centered west of the region while low pressure tracks east across the Gulf of Mexico. The pattern will result in another day of dry weather, but slightly warmer temps than the previous day along the base of a mid-lvl trough of low pressure centered over the Northeast. In general, afternoon highs should reach the upper 50s to lower 60s, warmest across Southeast Georgia.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Sfc high pressure will gradually weaken across the area Sunday night into Monday while low pressure quickly tracks across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida. A few showers are possible, mainly across southern most locations in Southeast Georgia, but the bulk of precip activity will likely shift offshore during daylight hours Monday. Dry high pressure should then prevail Monday afternoon through Tuesday night, before another low pressure system tracks across the Deep South and arrives over the Southeast midweek. Isolated to scattered showers are possible Wednesday and Thursday until the system shifts offshore.

In general, high temps should range in the upper 50s/lower 60s Sunday and Monday, then warm into the lower/middle 60s Tuesday, followed by middle/upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows should dip into the upper 30s inland to lower 40s near the coast Sunday night and Monday night, then remain in the lower/mid 40s Tuesday night and upper 40s/lower 50s Wednesday night.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. No change from the previous thinking at 06z. VFR at both KCHS and KSAV through the day with increasing chances for IFR to MVFR cigs developing by late afternoon/early evening, especially at KSAV. High resolution guidance suggests isolated showers could make a run for the upper Georgia coast mid-late morning, but suspect any activity will remain east of KSAV. Isolated showers could also approach KCHS after 03z tonight, but impact probabilities are too low to justify a mention. Cigs should remain above alternate minimums through the period.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are likely at both KCHS and KSAV terminals Friday and Friday night due to showers and low clouds associated with a passing cold front. VFR conditions are then expected to return at both terminals by daybreak Saturday and persist through Monday.

MARINE. Through Tonight: Pinched gradient conditions will linger through the day before diminishing tonight as inland high pressure weakens and a coastal trough approaches the coast. Northeast winds will gradually veer east and southeast through the night as the coastal trough approaches the coast. Winds 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt (slightly higher over the Georgia offshore waters early) will diminish to 10-15 kt tonight. Seas will range from 3-4 ft near the immediate coast to as high as 8-10 ft over the Georgia offshore waters today will subside to 2-5 ft nearshore with 6-8 ft Georgia offshore waters tonight. Small Craft Advisories remain in force for all legs with the exception of Charleston Harbor.

Friday through Monday: A coastal trough along the Southeast Coast will lift north early Friday morning ahead of a low pressure system quickly advancing toward the region from the west. A cold front associated with this system will likely shift offshore and across coastal waters Friday night before high pressure builds across the area and persists into early next week. Southerly winds should top out in the 15-20 kt ahead of the cold front, then turn west behind the front Saturday. As this occurs, marine conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels with the exception of offshore Georgia waters where an ongoing Small Craft Advisory will persist into Saturday night due to elevated seas between 5-7 ft. On Sunday, winds/seas will continue to decrease/subside as weak high pressure persists across the region, bringing an end to the Small Craft Advisory across offshore Georgia waters shortly after daybreak Sunday morning. Conditions should then remain well below Small Craft Advisory levels on Monday as weakened high pressure persists across the region while a low pressure system passes south of the area.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Tide levels are expected to peak 7.1-7.3 ft MLLW in the Charleston Harbor for this morning's high tide cycle. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been posted for Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties until 9 AM. Shallow coastal flooding is likely in the normally flood prone areas with some road closures possible in Downtown Charleston.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. GA . None. SC . Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ049- 050. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for AMZ352- 354. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Friday for AMZ350. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ374.

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
FPKG1 - 8670870 - Fort Pulaski, GA	19 mi	55 min		45°F	52°F		1023.2 hPa
41008 - GRAYS REEF - 40 NM Southeast of Savannah, GA	34 mi	47 min	NE 19 G 25	55°F	58°F	8 ft	1020.8 hPa (-0.4)	53°F

Wind History for Fort Pulaski, GA

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7 AM

8 AM

9 AM

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1 PM

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3 PM

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5 PM

6 PM

7 PM

8 PM

9 PM

10 PM

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1 AM

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Last 24hr

N11 G14

NE15 G19

NE12 G15

NE13 G17

NE12 G15

NE12 G17

NE11 G14

NE12 G16

E10

E11

E11

NE11

E10 G13

NE9

N11 G14

NE12

NE12

NE14

NE13 G17

NE13 G18

NE14 G18

NE13 G17

NE13 G17

NE13 G16

1 day ago

NE17 G22

N17 G22

NE16

N16

N17 G23

N14 G19

N15 G21

NE16 G20

N16 G21

N20

N15 G21

N13 G17

N13 G16

N10 G23

NE18 G24

N11 G16

N11 G15

N10 G14

N11 G16

N12

NW10

NW11 G14

N14 G19

N13 G19

2 days ago

N15 G19

N11 G14

NE14 G18

NE13 G19

NE12 G16

NE11

NE10 G13

NE8 G11

NE8 G11

NE9

NE9

NE10

N10

NE11 G14

NE9 G12

NE13 G17

NE13 G17

NE10 G13

N10

NE12 G16

N10

N10

N14 G19

NE13 G17

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure

Link to 5 minute data for KSVN

Wind History from SVN (wind in knots)

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N6

N5

NE7

N7 G16

N7 G16

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N8

NE9

E10

NE5

E8

N6

NE3

N3

N8

N9

N5

N5

NE4

NE5

NE5

NE5

N4

N3

1 day ago

N7

N8

N11 G18

N15 G19

N16 G24

N15 G22

N13 G17

N11 G19

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N10 G18

NW9 G17

N5

N7

N5

N5

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N5

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N6

N4

N10 G16

N4

2 days ago

N9

N9

N12 G16

NE12

N10

N9 G16

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NE4

NW7

N6

N7

N9

N7

N6

NE6

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N3

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N8

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Tide / Current Tables for Florida Passage, Ogeechee River, Georgia

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Tide / Current Tables for Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Charleston, SC (6,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Charleston, SC

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