DISCUSSION
Issued at 245 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Precipitable water analysis shows higher moisture exists to our west across southern Arizona today, in line with surface dewpoints reaching the lower 60s closer to the AZ/NM state line and mid-to- upper 50s along the Rio Grande corridor. High pressure aloft will begin an eastward progression toward New Mexico today, adding to warmer air aloft and suppressing convection updraft strength.
Storm coverage will once again favor the Gila Region and western New Mexico with scattered (40-60%) coverage this afternoon and evening. Main threats being gusty outflow winds and localized flooding. Coverage will be much more isolated along the Rio Grande and south-central New Mexico with very few locations seeing any rain today (El Paso likely to remain dry). El Paso should reach the upper 90's again this afternoon, possibly touching 100 degrees.

Upper ridge will continue a slow, eastward shift into early next week. Very similar weather day-to-day with thunderstorm chances area wide, but favoring western New Mexico. Low-end flooding risk each day, especially over the mountain zones. Highs continue to reach 100-102 at El Paso each afternoon with slim rain chances.

Monsoonal plume of moisture does look to make an eastward shift late next week as the upper high sits over east Texas, increasing rain chances for the Rio Grande Valley. We may end up considering a Heat Advisory for the lower RGV/El Paso during that timeframe.
NBM forecasted high temperatures suggest 103-105F Wednesday/Thursday at El Paso, so something to monitor.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 520 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Mostly NNW surface flow this morning under light north flow aloft.
Skies will remain SCT-BKN130 through late morning, clearing to FEW100 by noon. Scattered thunderstorm coverage along AZ/NM state line and area mountains between 18-02Z. Low risk for direct TS impacts at KTCS/KDMN this evening, but more likely sudden wind shifts due to outflow boundaries. KELP expected to remain dry and VMC with ceilings around FL080.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 245 AM MDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Storm chances next week will greatly favor the Gila National Forest with drier, more isolated shower activity eastward across the Rio Grande Valley and Lincoln National Forest. Monsoonal plume of deepest moisture sits over Arizona, so scattered afternoon coverage across western New Mexico each day. Main threats being lightning starts and gusty outflow winds. This month's rains have greatly reduced the risk of fire spread, but new starts continue to be possible.

Transport winds out of the west through the weekend with Fair to Good midday ventilation. Min RH 25-40%. Temperatures warming back to 5 to 10 degrees above average midweek.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 100 76 100 77 / 40 50 30 30 Sierra Blanca 91 67 93 67 / 30 30 30 30 Las Cruces 98 72 99 72 / 40 50 20 30 Alamogordo 95 69 97 70 / 30 30 20 20 Cloudcroft 72 53 74 53 / 70 30 50 20 Truth or Consequences 95 71 96 71 / 40 40 30 20 Silver City 88 63 88 65 / 90 50 70 30 Deming 96 70 98 71 / 50 50 30 40 Lordsburg 94 68 94 70 / 70 60 50 30 West El Paso Metro 97 74 98 75 / 40 50 30 40 Dell City 96 69 98 71 / 20 20 20 10 Fort Hancock 98 71 99 71 / 40 40 40 40 Loma Linda 90 67 91 68 / 40 50 30 30 Fabens 97 73 98 74 / 40 50 30 30 Santa Teresa 96 72 96 72 / 40 60 30 40 White Sands HQ 96 73 97 74 / 30 50 30 30 Jornada Range 96 70 98 71 / 30 40 30 30 Hatch 98 71 100 71 / 40 40 30 30 Columbus 96 72 97 73 / 60 50 30 40 Orogrande 94 69 96 71 / 30 30 30 20 Mayhill 81 58 85 59 / 60 20 50 20 Mescalero 83 58 86 59 / 60 30 50 20 Timberon 80 55 83 57 / 60 30 40 20 Winston 86 59 86 60 / 80 60 60 20 Hillsboro 92 67 93 67 / 70 40 50 30 Spaceport 95 68 97 68 / 40 40 30 20 Lake Roberts 88 60 88 60 / 90 50 70 30 Hurley 90 64 91 66 / 80 50 50 20 Cliff 98 64 98 66 / 90 50 60 20 Mule Creek 90 65 91 66 / 80 50 60 30 Faywood 90 66 92 67 / 70 40 50 30 Animas 94 68 94 69 / 60 70 60 50 Hachita 94 68 94 69 / 70 60 50 40 Antelope Wells 92 68 92 68 / 70 70 60 60 Cloverdale 86 64 87 64 / 80 70 70 60

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.