DISCUSSION
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

An area of upper level high pressure will continue to control our weather over the next seven days. Though the upper level ridge will not be centered much on our region, it will take almost a circular path around New Mexico. This path will keep deep moisture from being able to move into the region, which will generally limit our rain chances through the middle of next week.

For tonight through Saturday the upper level ridge will be centered to our west which will allow some thunderstorms to develop over area mountains and then move to the south or southwest, but with precipitable water values (PW's) at a little less than an inch, I am not expecting any widespread rainfall.
High temperature on Saturday will run a little above average. For Sunday, the upper level ridge will briefly be centered over southern New Mexico, which will again limit thunderstorm activity.
High temperatures on Sunday will run 3 to 5 degrees above average.

For Monday through Wednesday the upper level ridge will be centered over central Texas. Usually that would be good to get some deeper moisture pulled up out of Mexico. But the upper level ridge is just a little too close to allow the deeper flow to get going. The best chances for rain will be along the NM/AZ border.
By the end of next week the upper level ridge will drift to near the Four Corners region, which again is not the best for rain chances. What we will notice is the hot high temperature returning to the region. For Tuesday through Friday, high temperatures in the lowlands will run near or a few degrees above 100.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 537 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period across all of the TAF sites with CIG SCT120-BKN250. There will be periods of SKC.
The winds will be generally light and variable; however, they could gust up to 10 to 15 kts off and on across much of the terminals through 03Z. There will be a few TS across the Borderland that may move over KDMN and KTCS through 03Z. Other than a few +RA that could reduce VSBY across aforementioned sites, generally there should be no reduction in the VSBY across the runways through the end of the period.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 245 PM MDT Fri Jul 26 2024

Fire weather concerns remain low for the next seven days. We will see isolated to scattered afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day, with the best chances for rain west of the Rio Grande. Min RH's on Saturday will be in the teens in the lowlands and in the 20's in area mountains. Min RH's will be a little higher for Sunday and Monday, before coming back down some for the middle of next week. Very warm to hot temperatures will return to the region next week. Ventilation rates will range good to very good over the next couple of days.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 76 99 76 101 / 0 30 40 20 Sierra Blanca 66 90 67 92 / 0 30 30 30 Las Cruces 72 99 72 100 / 30 40 50 10 Alamogordo 69 95 69 97 / 10 30 20 20 Cloudcroft 53 73 53 74 / 20 60 20 50 Truth or Consequences 69 94 70 95 / 40 50 30 20 Silver City 63 88 63 88 / 60 90 50 50 Deming 70 96 70 97 / 60 60 50 20 Lordsburg 70 94 69 95 / 50 80 50 40 West El Paso Metro 76 97 75 98 / 0 30 40 20 Dell City 69 96 70 99 / 0 20 10 10 Fort Hancock 71 98 71 100 / 0 30 40 30 Loma Linda 68 90 67 92 / 20 40 30 30 Fabens 73 97 73 99 / 0 30 30 20 Santa Teresa 72 96 72 97 / 30 40 50 20 White Sands HQ 73 96 73 97 / 20 40 40 20 Jornada Range 70 96 70 97 / 40 40 40 20 Hatch 70 99 70 100 / 50 50 50 20 Columbus 73 96 72 97 / 50 60 50 20 Orogrande 70 94 70 96 / 10 30 20 20 Mayhill 58 82 58 85 / 30 50 20 40 Mescalero 58 83 57 86 / 30 70 20 40 Timberon 56 81 56 83 / 10 50 20 40 Winston 57 86 58 87 / 50 80 40 40 Hillsboro 66 92 66 93 / 60 70 60 30 Spaceport 67 95 67 97 / 30 50 30 20 Lake Roberts 59 88 60 88 / 60 90 50 50 Hurley 64 91 65 92 / 50 80 50 40 Cliff 64 98 65 98 / 50 80 50 40 Mule Creek 66 91 65 90 / 40 80 50 40 Faywood 66 90 66 92 / 60 80 50 30 Animas 70 94 68 94 / 60 80 50 50 Hachita 69 94 67 92 / 60 70 50 30 Antelope Wells 69 92 67 92 / 50 80 50 50 Cloverdale 65 87 64 87 / 70 80 50 60

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.