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FXUS64 KEPZ 040531 AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1031 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2023

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 127 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2023

Quiet weather conditions are expected throughout the period. The winds the early half of this week will be light; however, toward the latter half to the week, they will become breezy. The temperatures will be above the normal all week long. A dry cold front will move through our area during the day on Saturday, which will lower our temperatures to below the normal weekend.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 127 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2023

Currently, the sky is mostly sunny across most of the area with the winds at the surface mainly light to breezy and the temperatures on the cool side; however, not as cool as they were at this same time yesterday. For tonight, quiet weather conditions are expected with the skies mostly clear and the surface winds becoming light and variable areawide except for in the mountains.
With that said, the low temperatures on Monday morning will be somewhat similar to what the low temperatures were this morning; however, not as cool for some lowland areas. For Monday, a ridge of high pressure will be centered far off the coast of Baja California with troughing across much of the CONUS. With these two features in place, the flow aloft will be dry and out from the northwest. This pattern will continue to bring quiet weather to our area. Due to this, the high temperatures in the afternoon will be a few degrees warmer than what this afternoon high temperatures will be. For Monday night, the conditions will be somewhat similar to tonight's weather except for a few more clouds and slightly warmer low temperatures on Tuesday morning.

For the rest of the period, quiet weather conditions will persist as high pressures will be the main dominant feature controlling our weather. There will be a few dry shortwaves undercutting this ridge and moving through our area around the middle of the week.
These short waves will not impact our weather as the temperatures will increase a couple of the degrees each consecutive day throughout the week courtesy of this high pressure system. Toward the end of the weekend, a shortwave trough will move across the northern Rockies and as it does, the winds will being to pickup by becoming breezy the latter half of the week. Also, as this system traverses the northern Rockies, it will send a cold front down our way. The temperatures ahead of the front by the end of the week will be 5 to 10 degrees above the normal with the El Paso being in the lower 70s for a high. After the cold front pushes through on Saturday, the temperatures will cool to be below the normal with El Paso high in the upper 50s or lower 60s. The temperatures will continue to keep cool and with light to breezy winds on Sunday.

AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1023 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2023

VFR conditions through the period with generally SKC-SCT250. High clouds will be increasing Monday afternoon, some areas may see BKN250.
Light winds, at times variable, are expected across much of the area through Monday with dry weather.



FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 127 PM MST Sun Dec 3 2023

For the rest of today, dry air will be in place with no precipitation expected. Tonight recovery will be fair to very good. For Monday, the air will be dry, but not as dry as it is today. The 20ft winds will be generally light and the temperatures above the normal. Monday overnight recovery will be similar to that of tonight's recovery. For Tuesday, a slight moist airmass will be in place. The 20ft winds will continue to be light and the temperatures above the average. For the rest of the period, quiet weather conditions are anticipated with light to breezy winds and warmer temperatures. The temperatures will warm a few degrees each day through the end of the week. With that said, there will be no fire weather concerns through the period across the entire zones.

The min RHs on Monday will be between 15 and 25% in the lowlands and between 30 and 45% in the mountains. The min RHs on Tuesday will increase 2 to 5% in the lowlands and decrease 2 to 5% in the mountains. The ventilation rates will be poor to fair on Monday and Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 39 65 41 68 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 35 62 38 63 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 32 63 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 30 62 34 63 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 24 44 27 47 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 34 61 35 61 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 35 60 37 61 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 32 64 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 30 65 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 39 64 40 66 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 29 65 32 65 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 34 67 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 35 58 38 61 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 35 65 37 67 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 32 62 35 63 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 39 65 41 65 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 30 62 33 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 29 65 34 66 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 34 63 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 31 61 34 62 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 30 60 32 58 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 27 55 29 57 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 27 55 30 55 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 27 60 29 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 33 62 33 61 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 30 62 35 62 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 28 62 30 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 32 63 35 65 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 31 66 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 33 62 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 35 62 37 64 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 32 65 35 66 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 31 65 35 64 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 34 65 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 36 63 40 62 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...None.

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