El Paso, TX Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Paso, TX

June 18, 2024 11:26 AM MDT (17:26 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:59 AM   Sunset 8:15 PM
Moonrise 4:21 PM   Moonset 2:10 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near El Paso, TX
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Area Discussion for - El Paso, TX
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FXUS64 KEPZ 181128 AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 528 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

New AVIATION

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 220 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Hot and dry weather continues today before a change in the weather pattern brings plentiful moisture from the southeast Wednesday through the weekend. Much cooler temperatures Thursday and Friday with chances for showers and thunderstorms area wide.
Heat will return by next week, but daily thunderstorm chances will continue over the high terrain as this year's monsoon season begins.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 220 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

One more day of dry conditions today as southwest flow continues.
Moisture boundary sits just off to our east, with Carlsbad/Roswell reporting dewpoints in the upper 50s and El Paso/Alamogordo in the lower 20s. Boundary will linger off to the east with a surface trough in central New Mexico sustaining southwest flow area wide. Winds will be tick lighter than yesterday, generally 10 to 15 mph. This should allow temperatures to be a few degrees cooler again today, with lowland highs 96-101F. Heat Advisory for El Paso/Lower Valley will expire this morning, but go back into effect on Wednesday.

Pattern change beginning on Wednesday with an inverted trough retrograding from the Gulf of Mexico across south-central Texas, primarily forced by high pressure aloft along the Atlantic Coast.
Moisture will begin to reach the eastern portion of the forecast area due to a shift in surface winds to the southeast, with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Sacramento Mountains and Hudspeth County tomorrow afternoon. Mostly dry elsewhere, with similar warm temperatures. Main concern with storms Wednesday will be strong outflows and impacts to ongoing wildfire suppression efforts in the Lincoln National Forest. Guidance suggests El Paso has a good chance of meeting Heat Advisory criteria again, with NBM probabilities at 60% of reaching 105F.
Heat Advisory will be re-issued for Wednesday.

This year's monsoon season begins on June 20 with the arrival of rich surface moisture Thursday morning. Strong surface high pressure in central Texas will assist in the erosion of the lee low and begin a strong push of ESE winds as early as Wednesday night. Surface dewpoints will soar to the upper 50s to 60 as moisture flows in under gusty southeast winds. Winds will be quite breezy on Thursday, 20 to 30 mph. Cloud coverage will become more common and rain chances will return to the forecast at long last.
Atmospheric precipitable water, which has lately hovered around 0.25-0.50" will jump over 1.00" (above the 90% percentile climatology).

One big impact will be cooler temperatures, with lowland highs only reaching the lower 90s Thursday/Friday due to more clouds and upslope flow. GFS MOS guidance is even lower, but will be dependent on cloud rain shower coverage.

Current forecast projects the best rain chances to focus eastward along the TX/NM state line where synoptic lifting directly under the trough is most favorable for shower development. QPF is a bit underwhelming along the Rio Grande Valley, but something is better than nothing given the recent dry spell. Scattered afternoon showers over the high terrain and isolated lowland showers in the evening Thursday/Friday can be expected for all zones. Coverage will be spotty, with the main storm threats being gusty outflow winds and lightning.

Broad high pressure expands over the Southern US this weekend and through the rest of June, quickly bumping temperatures back up next week. Marginal storm chances will continue with moisture lingering, so PoPs won't be eliminated entirely but focused on the mountain zones.

AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 521 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

VMC through forecast period under southwest flow aloft and clear skies. Surface winds from the SW 240-260 5-10 knots, increasing to 10-15 knots this afternoon. Peak gusts around 25 knots in the early evening especially for KTCS. Light and variable flow overnight.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 220 AM MDT Tue Jun 18 2024

Near-critical fire danger again today with southwest winds 10 to 20 mph and min RH 5-12%. Winds will be a bit lighter today compared to yesterday, but similar direction. Excellent smoke ventilation and transport to the NE. Active fires in LNF will burn hottest on the northeast flanks where further growth is likely.

Pattern change expected late this week as moisture arrives from the southeast increasing humidity, rain chances, and cloud coverage Thursday through Saturday. Wednesday's storm chance will be limited to eastern Otero and Hudspeth Counties. Strong outflows from these storms will pose a risk of sudden wind shifts and erratic fire behavior along active fire lines during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will be much cooler Thursday/Friday under ESE flows and Good ventilation. Min RH will be much more favorable. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected each afternoon, with the best chance for wetting rains over LNF and east of the Rio Grande Valley. Monsoon season well underway next week with continued daily storm chances over the high terrain and seasonably hot temperatures.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 101 73 104 77 / 0 0 20 20 Sierra Blanca 96 67 96 67 / 0 0 30 30 Las Cruces 99 67 102 72 / 0 0 10 20 Alamogordo 97 65 101 66 / 0 0 20 20 Cloudcroft 75 52 76 51 / 0 0 40 30 Truth or Consequences 98 67 99 71 / 0 0 10 20 Silver City 88 61 92 65 / 0 0 0 20 Deming 98 62 101 70 / 0 0 10 20 Lordsburg 96 63 99 70 / 0 0 0 10 West El Paso Metro 98 71 102 74 / 0 0 20 20 Dell City 100 64 98 67 / 0 0 30 30 Fort Hancock 101 67 102 69 / 0 0 30 30 Loma Linda 92 65 94 66 / 0 0 30 20 Fabens 100 67 104 72 / 0 0 20 20 Santa Teresa 96 64 101 70 / 0 0 20 20 White Sands HQ 96 72 100 75 / 0 0 20 20 Jornada Range 96 63 101 67 / 0 0 20 20 Hatch 99 62 102 69 / 0 0 10 20 Columbus 98 68 101 73 / 0 0 10 20 Orogrande 96 66 99 70 / 0 0 20 20 Mayhill 88 54 85 55 / 0 0 50 30 Mescalero 86 55 87 55 / 0 0 30 30 Timberon 84 53 85 53 / 0 0 40 30 Winston 89 54 90 58 / 0 0 10 20 Hillsboro 94 64 96 67 / 0 0 10 20 Spaceport 96 59 99 64 / 0 0 10 20 Lake Roberts 87 57 92 61 / 0 0 0 20 Hurley 91 59 95 64 / 0 0 0 20 Cliff 96 57 102 64 / 0 0 0 10 Mule Creek 89 61 95 67 / 0 0 0 10 Faywood 91 62 94 65 / 0 0 10 20 Animas 96 62 100 69 / 0 0 0 10 Hachita 96 62 99 69 / 0 0 0 20 Antelope Wells 94 62 99 69 / 0 0 0 10 Cloverdale 89 62 94 69 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT early this morning for TXZ418-419- 423-424.

NM...None.




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