Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for El Paso, TX

DISCUSSION
Issued at 210 PM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

A slow moving UL low is off the CA coast, and it will be the main driver of our weather through the weekend. For Saturday, flow will begin to increase throughout the column as the main jet is steered eastward with its exit region located toward NM. A broad surface pressure trough will form over the Rio Grande Valley, leading to some afternoon breeziness. Given the wind trajectory, some dust may kick up out of Mexico and move into the CWA, but impacts look minimal.

The UL low will continue eastward into NV and UT into Sunday, aligning the main H500 jet across NM by Sunday afternoon. A surface low pressure around 995 mb will form over Eastern CO with its trough axis southward across the High Plains of NM. Forecast winds look a little stronger than yesterday's forecast with H500 around 75 knots and H700 and H850 flow at 40-45 knots. Forecast soundings show mixing well above 700 mb to around 550-600 mb. This will lead to widespread wind advisory and high wind warning caliber winds for nearly the entire CWA With the trough axis aligned toward the Hudspeth County, winds will be lighter out that way. Nevertheless, the High Wind Watch I inherited looks good, the exception being NBM data shows a mean max gust of 51 knots for El Paso. I went ahead and expanded the watch to include that zone. The forecast is a bit in flux when it comes to wind speeds, so I will hold of on upgrading the watch. Southwesterly winds will bring in dust out of Mexico, which will combine with local dust sources. Visibility issues related to blowing dust are a good bet, and dust advisories will almost certainly be hoisted before Sunday. The strong winds will also combine with very dry conditions, so the Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning.

The UL low will eject northeastward overnight Sunday into Monday, taking the main jet max with it. Lingering energy behind the low will carve out a secondary trough across the Desert SW. Main jet energy will remain over Southern NM and Far West Texas but with lower speeds and a weaker surface cyclone. It will be breezy again on Monday, but impacts are expected to be much less than Sunday.
Temperatures will be closer to average too behind a Pacific front.

The secondary low will swing across Southern AZ into Southern NM Tuesday into Wednesday. This will shift the jet south keeping the strongest winds over Chihuahua. The path of the low would normally bring favorable dynamics to our CWA, but the system will be quite moisture starved, yielding some fair weather cumulus at most.
Tuesday will instead bring seasonal temperatures along with some afternoon breezes. We are on the back-side of the low by Wednesday, but a somewhat tight surface pressure gradient will keep us breezy in the afternoon with no significant impacts expected.

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 531 PM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Gusty sly winds will diminish throughout the early part of the TAF period, becoming light and VRB overnight. Breezy conditions will return in the aftn with swly to sly gusts around 20 kts.

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 210 PM MDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...CRITICAL TO EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON SUNDAY...

A very dry air mass will be in place for the entire period with afternoon min RH values well into the single digits. Mountains will also see min RH values in the single-digits and lower teens.
For Saturday, this will lead to elevated fire weather conditions as 20-foot winds top out around 15 MPH to 20 MPH. Some of the higher elevations, especially in the Bootheel, will see an hour or two of critical fire weather conditions, but no Red Flag Warning is in effect. Venting on Saturday will be excellent.

Winds increase on Sunday, especially along and west of the Rio Grande and across higher elevations. Afternoon winds will peak 25 to 35 MPH with gusts as high as 60 MPH. The Fire Weather Watch was upgraded to a Red Flag Warning given the high confidence. Winds will not be as strong across Texas, but latest data do show an uptick in winds. Hudspeth County was added to the Red Flag Warning, but winds will be marginal across the county. Min RH values will be well into the single-digits. RFTI values will range 5 to 8 with the highest threat ranging across the Black Range and Rio Grande Valley of Sierra County southward into the Mimbres River Valley and into the Bootheel.

Dry air will remain in place, but winds will decrease for the week ahead. At this time, no widespread critical fire weather conditions are anticipated for Monday onward as afternoon winds top out around 15 MPH.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 59 89 60 92 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 53 85 55 89 / 10 0 10 10 Las Cruces 50 84 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 53 85 55 87 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 40 64 43 64 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 50 84 52 83 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 46 77 44 75 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 48 87 49 87 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 45 84 45 83 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 59 87 60 90 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 52 88 51 93 / 10 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 53 92 56 96 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 55 81 56 84 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 54 89 55 94 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 53 86 54 89 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 59 86 60 88 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 50 84 50 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 48 87 50 88 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 53 89 53 89 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 52 84 54 87 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 44 76 47 76 / 10 0 0 0 Mescalero 44 74 46 74 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 41 72 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 38 77 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 46 82 49 81 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 46 83 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 42 78 41 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 43 80 42 78 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 42 83 41 80 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 43 79 43 73 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 47 80 46 79 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 46 85 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 47 85 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 47 85 47 83 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 48 79 47 77 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Texas Fire Weather Zone 055 El Paso County- Texas Fire Weather Zone 056 Hudspeth County.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for Eastern/Central El Paso County.

NM...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 9 PM MDT Sunday for Capitan and Sacramento Mountains/Lincoln NF/LNZ- South Central Lowlands and Southern Rio Grande Valley/BLM/GLZ- Southwest Deserts and Lowlands/Las Cruces BLM/GLZ- Southwest Mountains/Gila NF/Apache NF/GLZ.

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for East Central Tularosa Basin/Alamogordo-East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Eastern Black Range Foothills-Northern Dona Ana County-Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet-Sierra County Lakes-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin-West Central Tularosa Basin/White Sands-West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet.