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FXUS64 KEPZ 082118 AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM Issued by National Weather Service San Angelo TX 218 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2023

New FIRE WEATHER

SYNOPSIS
Issued at 140 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2023

Warm and breezy conditions this evening should give way to cooler temperatures tonight and tomorrow. Breezy north winds can be expected on Saturday, but this will be followed by quieter weather as temperatures start to warm back up for the first half of next week. There will be increased chances for precipitation and potentially mountain snow for the area for the middle to latter part of next week.

DISCUSSION
Issued at 140 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2023

This afternoon, a cold front was making its way into northern New Mexico. At the same time a broad longwave trough was digging southward over the Rockies and the central Plains. These features will continue southward through the weekend and bring cooler temperatures across southern New Mexico and far west Texas. The front should cross the Rio Grande by midday Saturday. A strong pressure gradient behind the front will result in somewhat breezy north winds during the day, but not as strong as what occurred today. Cold advection should occur across the region tonight and Saturday, so high temperatures were lowered by a few degrees in most locations. The coldest night should be Saturday night as the area will be below freezing under clear skies and after winds diminish.
Most locations north of I-10 could be easily in the teens under ideal radiational cooling conditions. Mid-level heights should start to rise Sunday and Monday. This should allow temperatures to warm back up toward seasonal normals with plentiful sunshine through Tuesday.

The next concern could be in play for the middle to latter part of next week when a broad upper-level low looks to dip into the Desert Southwest by Wednesday. Low-level moisture should increase during this time with flow off of the Gulf of Mexico and through west Texas. Models are in fairly good agreement on the evolution of this feature as it settles in over the Four Corners region. At this point, temperatures are expected to be well above freezing each day with a short duration below freezing overnight, even at the highest mountain elevations. For this reason, any precipitation will likely be rain for most locations. In these conditions a rain/snow mix will be possible in the mountains, with periods of overnight snow at the highest elevations.

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1022 AM MST Fri Dec 8 2023

VFR conditions will continue through 18Z Sat. Strong W winds of generally 15-25 KT with gusts of 25-35 KT will occur through 00Z Sat, then winds will decrease to around 8-12 KT. A front moving south through the region between 06Z Sat and 12Z Sat will bring gusty N winds around 10-15 KT with gusts to 25 KT behind it.
Winds at KELP should be below AWW criteria through most of the period.

SJH

FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 217 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2023

Elevated to Near Critical fire conditions amidst warm and windy weather this afternoon should ease up overnight as a cold front comes through the area. Much cooler temperatures are expected for tomorrow, although some breezy north winds during the day may lead to Elevated Fire conditions at times. Otherwise cool and dry weather should be the main story for the rest of the weekend through early next week which should lead to low fire concerns.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
El Paso 38 51 27 53 / 0 0 0 0 Sierra Blanca 34 49 20 49 / 0 0 0 0 Las Cruces 32 47 19 49 / 0 0 0 0 Alamogordo 31 47 18 49 / 0 0 0 0 Cloudcroft 18 27 10 35 / 0 0 0 0 Truth or Consequences 29 44 19 49 / 0 0 0 0 Silver City 29 47 21 49 / 0 0 0 0 Deming 30 50 19 51 / 0 0 0 0 Lordsburg 28 52 24 53 / 0 0 0 0 West El Paso Metro 37 51 27 51 / 0 0 0 0 Dell City 33 52 18 53 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Hancock 35 55 22 54 / 0 0 0 0 Loma Linda 33 44 22 46 / 0 0 0 0 Fabens 35 52 24 53 / 0 0 0 0 Santa Teresa 32 49 22 49 / 0 0 0 0 White Sands HQ 35 48 26 51 / 0 0 0 0 Jornada Range 30 47 18 49 / 0 0 0 0 Hatch 30 49 17 51 / 0 0 0 0 Columbus 35 50 23 50 / 0 0 0 0 Orogrande 33 46 19 47 / 0 0 0 0 Mayhill 25 37 14 51 / 0 0 0 0 Mescalero 21 37 13 44 / 0 0 0 0 Timberon 24 39 11 43 / 0 0 0 0 Winston 22 42 13 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hillsboro 25 46 17 51 / 0 0 0 0 Spaceport 29 44 17 49 / 0 0 0 0 Lake Roberts 22 44 15 54 / 0 0 0 0 Hurley 28 51 17 51 / 0 0 0 0 Cliff 26 52 19 56 / 0 0 0 0 Mule Creek 27 48 20 53 / 0 0 0 0 Faywood 30 49 21 49 / 0 0 0 0 Animas 30 53 22 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hachita 30 52 21 51 / 0 0 0 0 Antelope Wells 33 54 22 52 / 0 0 0 0 Cloverdale 33 52 26 51 / 0 0 0 0

EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
TX...None.
NM...Wind Advisory until 5 PM MST this afternoon for NMZ415-416-426.

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