Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Skidaway Island, GA

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Overnight composite analysis reveals a subtle surface trough and axis of modest instability sitting through the eastern Carolinas into central/southern Georgia. Meanwhile, weak short-wave troughing sits across the southeast region providing some very modest larger scale forcing for ascent. Enough of a kick to continue popping off a narrow line of showers/thunder across northern Colleton and Dorchester counties at this hour. Quiet weather elsewhere along with mild overnight temperatures across the region.

First off, will need to address ongoing convection, which continues to develop along the surface trough and/or old boundary...and is producing some very localized heavy rain. Pops have been tweaked to account for this. But will continue to monitor into the early morning hours.

Meanwhile, subtle short-wave troughing will linger across the region through today while aforementioned surface trough is expected to settle in across the Lowcountry into southeast Georgia. Daytime heating and weakness aloft (our persistent subsidence inversion aloft is gone as of the 00Z CHS sounding)
will yield 1-2K J/Kg MUCAPE this afternoon (locally higher along the sea breeze) and minimal capping should lead to the expansion of showers and thunderstorms as we go through the morning and the afternoon. Difficult to pinpoint exactly where the best/most persistent coverage will set up...although likely to be inland along the intersection of the surface trough and inland pressing sea breeze. Forecast will maintain sct-numerous pops through the afternoon although higher pops may eventually be required as trends become clear. Given PWAT values in excess of 1.5 inches, locally heavy rainfall is possible with a corridor of half to one inch+ of needed rainfall by evening that bisects the forecast area.

Severe weather possibilities: Mid-level flow and resulting 0-6 Km shear values are unimpressive. However, decent instability, cooler temps aloft/WBZ values under 11K feet and forecast DCAPE values of several hundred J/Kg could support marginally severe winds and hail in pulse like updrafts. Much of the southeast remains within an SPC marginal severe weather risk.

Tonight: Convection will gradually fade away through the evening hours with loss of heating, although some convection could continue to percolate into the overnight hours...similar to what we are currently seeing. The main concern will be the formation of fog where the grounds remain wet from earlier rains. Lows will dip into the 60s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A stalled cold front will lie roughly across the Central Carolinas and northern Georgia Thursday accompanied by weak ridging aloft. At least scattered coverage of showers and thunderstorms are expected, with low level convergence near the boundary as well as enhancement by the afternoon sea breeze. There could be some further forcing aloft due to a potential passing shortwave mainly over Central Georgia. Likely POPs have been maintained inland in close proximity to the front with slight chance POPs elsewhere. Highs will reach the low to mid 80s Thursday with lows in the low/mid 60s.

Thursday night into Friday the front will retreat north, slightly decreasing rain chances. Only slight chance POPs remain for the inland areas Friday as showers and thunderstorms are limited to the forcing provided by the sea breeze. Another cold front is progged to approach from the northwest Saturday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will return in the afternoon and evening, again targeting the inland areas and southeast South Carolina counties (locations north of I-16), ahead of the incoming front. South of I- 16, convection could be delayed as the front looks to slow during its passage Saturday night. Friday, highs will return to the mid to upper 80s and Saturday highs in the upper 80s will be common. Low temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler Friday night with some locations bottoming out in the upper 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
A cold front will push through the area Saturday night or Sunday morning. Additional rain chances are possible Sunday as models indicate the potential for the front to linger across the southeast Georgia counties. Drier high pressure will build in from the north early next week. The forecast is virtually rain-free with the return of sunshine. Temperatures will dip closer to near normal Sunday and Monday with the arrival of the front then gradually increase.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions are expected at CHS/JZI/SAV through a bulk of tonight. However, fog could develop at all terminals late night.
TEMPO MVFR vsbys remain in the terminal forecasts for all sites from 09Z-12Z.

VFR conditions should prevail mid-late morning Wednesday at all terminals. Showers/thunderstorms are possible Wednesday afternoon across the region, potentially impacting the terminals between 19Z and 00Z. VCTS has been introduced to all terminal forecasts as a start with further refinements likely.

Precip winds down Wednesday evening and some fog is possible overnight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Extended Aviation Outlook: There could be showers and thunderstorms that impact the terminals Thursday afternoon. Gusty winds are possible Friday and Saturday afternoon at all terminals with the passage of the sea breeze.

MARINE
Southerly winds will persist across the coastal waters through tonight with speeds around 10 knots and seas 1 to 3 feet.

Thursday through Monday: The weather pattern will generally yield east-southeast winds around 10 kt nearly Thursday and Friday.
Saturday they will shift out of the south ahead of a cold front.
Winds could be a bit stronger across the Charleston Harbor and close to the coast each afternoon following the sea breeze. Seas should average 1-3 ft within 20 nm and around 3 ft for the GA waters beyond 20 nm.

A cold front will push southward across the local waters Saturday night into Sunday and increase northeasterly winds to around 15 kt Sunday into Monday with gusts around 20 kt. Wave heights will also increase in response, peaking around 3-5 ft. A Small Craft Advisory could be needed with the potential for 6 ft seas to move into the outer Georgia waters Sunday evening. Mariners do need to be alert for some potential t-storm activity Saturday and Saturday night.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.