Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pachuta, MS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 122 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Through Wednesday: Latest RAP/water vapor analysis still showed an upper low situated over the southeast and a 595DM mid level ridge over the Desert Southwest, leading to mean northerly dry flow across the Gulf Coast states. This will lock in PWs generally around one inch and low humidity aloft (i.e. 700-300mb layer humidity in the low teens to single digits) and efficient mixing.
This will lead to moderating temperatures: highs becoming seasonably warm Wednesday (91F to 96F) and seasonable lows (71F to 74F) Wednesday night. With afternoon mixing being the norm, heat stress will remain lower over most of the CWA but with a gradual uptick of heat index in southwestern areas (heat indices in the 102F to 105F range by Wednesday afternoon). Thus, wl mention a "Limited" threat of heat stress in our southwest for Wednesday afternoon. Local radars this afternoon showed a few isolated light showers close to our southwest indicative of a moisture increase.
The increase in low level moisture will bring low chances of isolated showers and storms to our southern most zones Wednesday afternoon as well. /22/DC/

Late week into early next week (Thursday through next Monday): As the upper low weakens the grip over the Southeast into Thursday, low level southerly return flow and an uptick in moisture (low and deep layer moisture) will favor less efficient mixing, warmth/moist advection and increasing heat stress late week through the weekend.
Temperatures will be seasonably warm (highs in the 92F to 96F range and lows in the 72F to 76F range). The region will remain in more of a large scale weakness in the flow but low level flow will help moderate in higher surface dewpoints (70F to 76F) and increasing heat stress concerns.

Even though large scale pattern is somewhat similar to what we have been observing, the key difference is the low level return moist advection and increased deepening moisture aloft (PWs in the 1.5 to 2 inch range by the weekend into early next week). Rain chances will mainly be summertime variety (diurnally induced) with isolated to at times scattered coverage (20 to 40 percent range). This pattern will not favor any noteworthy storm threat, but a few scattered stronger gusty storms with locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out, especially later into the weekend.

The primary hazardous weather concern remains increasing heat stress into next week. By Thursday, the area of "Limited" risk where temperatures are expected to reach to near 105 F expands to include the entire area into next week while an "Elevated" risk area is introduced that highlights a risk for heat indices above 105 F for the southwestern two-thirds of the area. This period of heat danger will generally become more entrenched as we move into and through the weekend and upgrades to "Significant" risk areas as well as heat advisories/warnings could be necessary by later this week. /86/DC/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Isolated -SHRA wl come in vcty of HEZ this aftn and again late in the TAF period but, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 70 95 72 96 / 0 0 10 10 Meridian 71 94 73 95 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 70 95 73 95 / 0 10 0 10 Hattiesburg 72 96 74 96 / 0 10 10 30 Natchez 72 96 73 96 / 0 20 10 30 Greenville 69 95 73 96 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 69 94 72 95 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.