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FXUS64 KJAN 072335 AAA AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 535 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 228 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

Tonight & Friday...

Tonight: Synoptic pattern will consist of shortwave/sfc ridge building across the southeast states & off the Atlantic seaboard while low-level southwesterly flow will begin to pick up.
Increased ascent/moist advection aloft, mainly above 500mb, keep widespread cloudiness draped across the region. However, there should be enough low-level dryness where we still should radiate near seasonable values in the upper 30s east to low 40s west.
There are some indications of some advection fog in southern- central MS, but run-to-run consistency limits confidence, so kept out of the fcst.

Friday: Deepening mean trough for areas west of the MS River Valley into Intermountain West indicate deepening sfc low ejecting east- northeast from the OK Panhandle/West TX area into the Mid MS Valley. Stronger sfc low/frontal system will be ongoing over south-central Canada. Sfc winds will begin to be more gusty ahead of this front, with 3-4mb gradient around the region. With ridge axis amplifying across the Ohio Valley to Great Lakes, strong WAA will help thermo profiles warm a few degrees C into the low teens at 850mb. Seasonable warmth, some +5 above normal, is expected in this moderating pattern into the upper 60s to low 70s Friday. Some WAA showers can't be ruled out into the late aftn hours northwest of the Natchez Trace, but areas to the southeast should remain dry. /DC/

Friday night into Saturday: Main focus for the forecast period is on severe weather potential late Saturday. Southerly low level flow will begin strengthening Friday night ahead of a deepening longwave mid/upper trough. Isolated to scattered warm advection showers will be possible Friday night, with greater coverage possible toward Saturday morning as a weak leading shortwave passes across the Mid South. Given strong deep layer shear and sufficient elevated instability, a few storms are also possible.

More robust activity won't arrive until stronger forcing does via upper level height falls and a cold front approaching later in the day Saturday. Storms are expected to develop along the front west of the area during the afternoon and begin reaching the ArkLaMiss/Delta area closer to the late afternoon/early evening time frame. Initial development may be more cellular, with strong deep layer shear, moderate instability, and somewhat steep mid level lapse rates providing potential for damaging wind gusts and large hail. The strongest low level SRH currently looks to stay out of phase with the stronger convection, so though we can't rule tornadoes out, the threat looks relatively low. As storms advance eastward, mode will quickly become more linear and eventually begin to lose steam by late evening with the loss of instability.
A strengthening low level jet across north MS may help to offset this limitation somewhat and maintain greater severe potential at least over the northern half of the area. More of a lagging line and lesser low level flow may help to limit severe potential more over the southern half of the area. Convection will exit the area during the late overnight/early Sunday morning hours. Overall, there are no major changes to previous severe outlook graphic, so it will be maintained.

Sunday through next Thursday: Lingering showers in the wake of the front will exit early Sunday, with strong cold advection making for a chilly and breezy day. A freeze is expected both Sunday night with the continued CAA and Monday night as we shift to more of a radiational cooling setup. Temps will steadily moderate to around seasonal norms through the middle of next week.
Otherwise, dry and quiet weather conditions are expected through the remainder of the forecast period as surface ridging shifts from the Deep South toward the lower Appalachians. /DL/

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 532 PM CST Thu Dec 7 2023

VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period. GLH-GWO-HEZ wl have vcty -SHRA Friday aftn. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 43 70 58 77 / 0 20 30 70 Meridian 38 69 55 77 / 0 10 30 70 Vicksburg 43 70 60 77 / 0 20 30 80 Hattiesburg 43 71 56 79 / 0 10 20 50 Natchez 45 70 60 77 / 10 20 20 70 Greenville 43 66 60 72 / 0 20 60 90 Greenwood 44 68 59 72 / 0 20 60 90

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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Lower Hall Landing
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Thu -- 12:18 AM CST     0.90 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:22 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:36 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:00 AM CST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:26 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:49 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:18 PM CST     1.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Lower Hall Landing, Tensaw River, Alabama, Tide feet

Mobile (Mobile State Docks)
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Thu -- 01:22 AM CST     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:36 AM CST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:55 AM CST     0.51 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:26 PM CST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:50 PM CST     Sunset
Thu -- 09:02 PM CST     1.19 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Mobile (Mobile State Docks), Alabama, Tide feet

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