FXUS64 KJAN 271114 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 614 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024

Today and tonight: Midlevel trough to the northwest and building high pressure over the northern Gulf will maintain SW flow regime over our area today and continued rain chances. The good news is persistent cloud cover and weak instability will limit convective potential and rainfall rates, reducing flash flood risk. Some isolated thunderstorms could still be possible for areas south of I-20 where instability is likely to be greatest. Temperatures will remain below seasonal norms under these conditions with highs generally in the 80s in most locations. Chances for isolated showers will persist into the overnight hours and moist conditions will keep low stratus around with chances for patchy fog is spots./SAS/

Sunday through Friday: Come Sunday morning wl still have a warm moist airmass over our CWA along with the mid level trough just to our northwest. This will result in another day of cooler than normal afternoon highs with scattered to numerous coverage of mainly afternoon and early evening convection. The greatest coverage of convection is expected over the southeast half of the CWA Although severe storms are not anticipated, brief heavy downpours will again be possible. The mid level trough will finally be shifting northeast of the region going into Monday while the mid level ridge to our west begins spreading east. This will result in a warming trend along with lower chances for rain from the west each day through the end of the week. By Monday afternoon a 596dam ridge will be across the southern Plains and over our southwest zones. This will help strengthen a surface ridge nosing west across the Gulf coast states.
Unfortunately this will lead to slightly above normal temperatures along with above normal humidity. Heat stress will be a concern again a peak heat index values reach 105F. These conditions will occur again Tuesday. Each day Wednesday through Friday afternoon highs will top out in the mid to upper 90s. This will combine with high humidity and result in heat index values between 105F and 110F.
A Heat Advisory will likely be needed for most; if not all of our CWA /22/
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