Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pachuta, MS

DISCUSSION
Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Tonight and Saturday: Continued warmer than normal through the period but with much lower chance for rain. Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a main shortwave trough axis over east Mississippi and two additional more subtle shortwaves upstream; over our delta region and back over the Red River valley. The main shortwave was helping to maintain a band of showers and thunderstorms over our east and southeast zones. Some of this activity produced strong thunderstorms earlier but the potential for any additional strong storm development has lowered. The band of storms will shift southeast of our CWA by evening as the main shortwaves shifts farther east of Mississippi. Latest hi-res guidance shows only a very low chance this evening of any redevelopment of light showers associated with the passing of the two additional subtle shortwaves so tonight is expected to be dry for the most part. Areas of fog look likely over our east and south by morning. Patchy dense fog may also develop east and south with patchy light morning fog possible elsewhere. Saturday mid level ridging will move over our CWA while a surface high centered over the northern plains tries to push a weak cold front into our CWA
Despite the presence of the cold front and our moist airmass, guidance has come in with considerably lower chances for rain Saturday. /22/

Sunday into mid to late next week...

As ridging builds aloft this weekend, our intermittent showers and storms will diminish. The last shortwave to push across the area will be Sunday supported by the nose of the upper jet. Like previous days, heavy downpours cannot be ruled out, but poor lapse rates should limit severe concerns. Rain chances diminish thereafter early next week as high pressure becomes the dominant feature.

An 850mb thermal ridge will support much above normal (78 this time of year) temperatures to start the week with highs in the upper 80s and low 90s. Temperatures may even be nearing record highs Monday.
The train of shortwaves begins once again as the ridge begins to break down mid week. By Wednesday, several shortwaves will have helped to recover some moisture to the area ahead of a more potent shortwave trough ejection Thursday. This could potentially lead to some strong to severe storms, but there is still question whether height falls will be sufficient. The area of greatest confidence at this time would be in the northwest and this is indicated on CSU MLP as well for the day 6-7 time frame. A low end severe risk as we get closer is not out of the question. We will continue to adjust the forecast as necessary./SAS/

AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 717 PM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

Rain chances have mostly ended through much of the remainder of the TAF period, though isolated SHRA or TSRA cannot be entirely ruled out especialy after 18Z Saturday. Residual moisture in the region will chances for low stratus and patchy BR in the forecast at any of the sites mainly between 09Z-15Z. Then VFR conditions should prevail at the sites by 18Z. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 64 85 65 87 / 10 20 0 20 Meridian 61 85 62 88 / 10 20 0 30 Vicksburg 65 85 67 87 / 0 20 0 20 Hattiesburg 62 88 66 89 / 10 20 0 20 Natchez 64 85 66 86 / 10 20 0 10 Greenville 66 84 67 85 / 10 20 20 30 Greenwood 64 85 67 86 / 10 20 10 30

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.