Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Pachuta, MS

FXUS64 KJAN 131121 AAA AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 621 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

New AVIATION

DISCUSSION
Issued at 401 AM CDT Sun Oct 13 2024

Today and Tonight: Dry weather will continue through tonight.
Temperatures will be near record high over the delta region and continue warmer than normal elsewhere this afternoon but, a dry cold front will drop into our CWA tonight and bring cooler temperatures to the northern half of our CWA by morning.

Early morning surface analysis had a 1020mb high centered over the Florida panhandle and a 1008mb low centered over northern Indiana.
The surface high will slide to the southwest today while a northern stream shortwave helps push the surface low east and the cold front towards our CWA This will result in an increase in low level moisture over our region ahead of the approaching cold front.
Gradient winds will not be that impressive today but with the warm temperatures, model soundings suggest decent mixing that may help produce a few gusts this afternoon around 15 mph. There will be a Limited threat of fire danger at best this afternoon and mainly over our northwest zones. Record highs for this date were set back in 1963 for Greenville(93F), Greenwood(93F) and Tallulah-Vicksburg(94).
Temperatures are expected to top out in the lower 90s generally along and northwest of the Natchez Trace. The northwest flow aloft today will continue tonight and help support the cold front entering our northwest most zones around midnight and making it to the Interstate 20 corridor by sunrise. Morning lows will be back in the upper 50s over our northern most zones. /22/

Monday through Saturday: Our first real fall cold front of the year will begin pushing across the area late Sunday night into early Monday morning, reaching south MS/south LA by Monday evening. Though we will see a substantial airmass change, this front will be dry, with only some increase in clouds. There will still be enough opportunity for warming ahead of the front in southern portions of the area for highs in the mid/upper 80s, but farther north, they may not reach 80 north of I-20. Monday night will be cool, with some areas reaching the 40s especially in north MS and AR. Cold advection will continue into Tuesday, then a reinforcing push of cooler/drier air will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday with the passage of a mid/upper trough axis. By Wednesday, many areas may struggle to reach the 70 degree mark. Lows in the upper 30s are increasingly possible in the cooler pockets especially north of I-20. Temps will gradually trend back upward toward seasonal norms toward the end of the week. No rain is expected through the forecast period given the dry airmass that will be in place.

With the weather pattern finally beginning to reflect the changing seasons, we are entering a more active time of year for fire weather hazards. Though rainfall deficits aren't particularly high across most of the area, we are in the middle of a growing streak of dry days which are resulting in increasingly dry ground fuels. On Monday, daytime RHs will fall rather drastically to critical levels below 30 percent and approaching 20 percent, while the wind will be gusty at times. Thus, we will continue to highlight increasing fire danger as we head through the week. /DL/
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