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FXUS64 KFWD 102014 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 214 PM CST Sun Dec 10 2023

New Long Term

SHORT TERM
/Issued 1126 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ /Through Thursday/

After a cold start to the day, today's high temperatures will remain in the 50s throughout North and Central Texas. A northerly to northwesterly breeze will continue through around sunset before winds begin to shift out of the south tonight.

Light winds, a dry airmass and clear skies will set the stage for a night of excellent radiational cooling. Temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 30s with freezing temperatures sprinkled across the region.

For tomorrow, low-level winds will be out of the southwest, helping to increase afternoon temperatures into the lower to mid 60s. Morning clear skies will give way to a bit of filtered sunshine by the afternoon as better upper-level moisture arrives from the west.

Hernandez

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Monday Night and Beyond/

Ahead of a stronger period of moisture return, light winds and mostly clear skies will allow for another night of decent radiational cooling allowing temperatures to fall into the mid to upper 30s across much of North and Central Texas Monday night. By Tuesday, southerly flow will start a period of warm/moist advection in advance of an approaching upper-level low. Increasing low clouds as well as high clouds streaming in the southwest flow aloft will overspread the area by midday Tuesday. Within this southerly flow regime, expect temperatures to top out in the low to mid 60s despite the increase in cloud cover.

As the upper-level low dives southeastward into the Desert Southwest, increasing moisture advection and synoptic-scale ascent will bring scattered showers and light rain to portions of West Texas and the Texas Panhandle Wednesday through Thursday.
Some of this precipitation could extend as far east as the Highway 281 corridor where we have included 20-40% PoPs both Wednesday and Thursday. Rain chances will increase late Thursday into Friday across the western and southern portions of our forecast area as the aforementioned upper-level low shifts into West Texas and tracks across the center of the state. Meager mid-level lapse rates and very limited instability will keep the potential for thunder on the lower end, with mostly periods of light to moderate rainfall expected through the Thursday night-Friday period. There are still uncertainties as the ultimate track of the upper-level low will determine the extent and timing of the greatest rain chances. A further north track could bring greater chances for rain to portions of North Texas, but a further south track could keep the greatest synoptic-scale forcing and better rain chances south of our forecast area. For now we will keep 50-60% PoPs generally along/south of I-20 and along/west of I-35 late Thursday into Friday. This area will have the greatest potential for 0.5-1.5" of rainfall through the end of the week. Elsewhere, will likely see less than 0.5" with a ~30-40% chance that locations north and east of the Metroplex miss out on the rain entirely.

Increasing cloudiness and subtle near surface cold advection as winds shift more east-northeasterly in advance of this system will bring cooler, more seasonable temperatures in the 50s to low 60s Wednesday through the end of the week. Wrap-around moisture behind this storm system will keep low chances for light rain in the forecast into Saturday clearing from northwest to southeast by the latter half of Saturday. Keep up-to-date with the forecast through the week as we start to move into the range of more near-term, high-resolution model guidance.

Langfeld

AVIATION
/Issued 1126 AM CST Sun Dec 10 2023/ /18Z TAFs/

The main aviation concern through the early afternoon will be the continued potential for moderate to severe turbulence across North and Central Texas. As the jet stream trough axis moves away from the region, turbulence potential will gradually decrease.

Northwesterly winds and VFR conditions are ongoing at this time and will continue through around 00Z. Beyond 00Z, southerly winds will return and persist through the end of the this TAF cycle.
Wind speeds will remain generally at or below 10 knots today and closer to 5 knots tomorrow.

Hernandez


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 34 63 40 64 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Waco 28 62 37 64 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Paris 27 58 35 60 38 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 29 62 35 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 McKinney 29 61 36 62 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Dallas 36 63 40 63 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Terrell 28 61 37 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 33 63 40 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 0 Temple 28 63 37 65 45 / 0 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 29 66 36 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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