Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Whitney, TX

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Through Thursday/

We are currently monitoring two separate MCSs that have developed over the past few hours: one which is approaching from our northwest and the second which is currently located in the Hill Country. We are confident that both will maintain their intensity as they move east/southeast through the remainder of the night, as the nocturnal LLJ continues to strengthen with minimal inhibition and ~2000 J/kg of MUCAPE. As a result, there will be a threat for occasional damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph with each complex of storms. A few somewhat discrete storms have developed on the northern edge of the Central Texas MCS, and these will continue to pose a threat for large hail. The severe threat should decrease as both systems encounter a more weakly sheared environment as they move east, but there is still some uncertainty in how quickly any weakening will occur. A few strong gusts may remain possible as these systems approach the I-35 corridor later this morning (~4-7 am).

Both systems will exit to the east around late morning/midday, with a lull in thunderstorm activity becoming increasingly likely this afternoon given tonight's extensive convection. There is still a chance we'll see some recovery this afternoon, so we will maintain at least a low potential for additional storm development along any lingering outflow boundaries. However, PoPs may need to be lowered further depending on how the ongoing convection continues to evolve through the remainder of the night.

Additional chances for showers and storms are expected Wednesday night as convection along an active dryline approaches the area once again. There will be a potential for the development of one or more clusters of storms (similar to tonight), and this activity will likely linger into Thursday across the region.
However, these clusters of storms will be more likely to remain disorganized as shear will be relatively weak. Therefore, the severe threat should be fairly isolated, with damaging wind gusts and hail expected to be the main hazards.

Barnes

LONG TERM
/New/ /Thursday Night Onward/

Our active weather pattern will persist as we head into the weekend as North and Central Texas remain in a moist and unstable airmass. By early Friday morning, a few showers and thunderstorms may be underway as a shortwave progresses east across southern Oklahoma. Although there is a large degree of uncertainty in overall coverage during this time frame, nearly 1500 J/kg of instability will be in place. This should be enough to perhaps produce a strong to marginally severe thunderstorm.

The morning thunderstorm activity may leave a west to east oriented outflow boundary that could become the focus for additional thunderstorm activity in the afternoon.

Mid-level ridging across Central Texas will commence late Friday and continue through the rest of the weekend. This should effectively lower rain chances through the rest of Central Texas.
Across North Texas, rain chances will continue, although much lower compared to previous days. This will be due to the shortwaves continuing make their way from West Texas to Oklahoma.
The severe weather potential this weekend will likely remain across West Texas, where dryline thunderstorm activity is expected.

The start of a new week will bring a renewed thunderstorm threat as the dryline shifts eastward, closer to North and Central Texas.
Our first thunderstorm potential will be late Monday as a shortwave moves overhead. At this time, the highest rain chances will be across western North Texas where storm probabilities will remain between 30-50%.

Tuesday's storm potential will depend on any remnant outflow boundaries lingering behind any early morning convection. Beyond Tuesday, a cold front is expected to push through on Wednesday.
Rain chances are expected to increase along the front as it slides from north to south across our region. Slightly cooler temperatures can be expected to finish out next week.

AVIATION
/NEW/ /06Z TAFs/

Two independent clusters of storms are currently moving east/southeast and will impact the terminals later this morning (most likely between 10-12Z). The extent of convection on the back side of these clusters remains a little uncertain, so it's possible the VCTS/TSRA window may need to be slightly extended depending on how things evolve the remainder of the night. Gusty west to northwest winds will be possible. MVFR ceilings will develop in advance of the storms and will linger through much of the morning, eventually lifting to VFR around late morning/midday.
Given how extensive tonight's storms are, it may be difficult to get any additional storm development late this afternoon.
Therefore, it's possible we will be able to remove the VCTS from the TAFs for the afternoon, but this will be assessed further over the next several hours.

MVFR ceilings may potentially develop as early as 02Z Thursday across D10 airspace. For now, have introduced MVFR ceilings at 05Z for the Metroplex TAFs, but this may need some adjustment depending on how guidance trends throughout the day. Additional storms will approach from the west Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but this activity likely wouldn't be near any of the terminals until after 12Z Thursday. Winds will generally remain out of the south/southeast around 10 knots through the period.

Barnes

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 81 66 81 67 / 70 80 40 70 60 Waco 68 82 66 83 67 / 40 50 30 70 30 Paris 63 79 63 78 64 / 10 40 50 70 60 Denton 63 80 63 80 62 / 80 80 40 70 60 McKinney 64 80 64 79 64 / 60 80 50 70 60 Dallas 68 82 66 82 67 / 70 80 40 70 60 Terrell 65 81 65 81 65 / 30 70 40 70 50 Corsicana 68 82 67 83 67 / 30 70 30 70 40 Temple 66 82 66 83 67 / 40 40 30 60 20 Mineral Wells 63 81 63 83 63 / 80 70 30 70 50

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.