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AMZ354 Waters From Savannah Ga To Altamaha Sound Ga Out 20 Nm, Including Grays Reef National Marine Sanctuary- 1009 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Rest of tonight..NE winds 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Tue..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Tue night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 5 to 6 ft after midnight.
Wed..NE winds 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 4 to 5 ft in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ300 1009 Pm Edt Mon Oct 2 2023
Synopsis for the coastal waters of south coastal south carolina and north coastal georgia.. High pressure will extend across the region this week. A cold front will then move offshore Saturday.

FXUS62 KCHS 030211 AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston SC 1011 PM EDT Mon Oct 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will extend across the region this week. A cold front will then move offshore Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/
Late this evening: No change needed to the forecast through sunrise. Dry high pressure will remain in control and clear skies are expected to prevail. Temperatures are expected to be a degree or two cooler tonight compared to last night. We could see some mid 50s across the interior and in the Francis Marion National Forest. Along the immediate coast and the beaches, expect mid to upper 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/
A blocking pattern will persist through Thursday with an area of upper level low pressure remaining centered just southeast of South Carolina. This will keep dry northwest flow established across the upper levels of the atmosphere with no precipitation expected through the short term (the one exception being a slight chance for the coastal counties on Thursday).

Tuesday and Wednesday: Surface high pressure will be centered across the Mid-Atlantic states with the region firmly placed in the ageostrophic convergent side of an exiting upper level low off of the South Carolina coast. No precipitation is expected Tuesday or Wednesday with high temperatures in the low to mid 80s. Low temperatures Wednesday morning will be mostly in the lower 60s (inland)/ upper 60s (beaches).

Thursday: The upper level low that was analyzed over North Carolina today will be southeast of South Carolina Thursday with some better mid and low level saturation pushing inland. PWATs are forecast to rise to around 1.5", however substantial dry air remains entrenched across the region above 500 mb. This working in combination with the ageostrophic convergence (back side of the upper level low), will make the chance of precipitation very low. If anything does form, it will likely be right along the coast closer to the better moisture.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
The main story in the long term will be the seasonably strong cold front expected to cross the region on Saturday. The GEFS, GEPS, and EPS all show a strong 1.5 to 2.5 SD anomaly area of low pressure crossing the Great Lakes Saturday. This will push a strong cold front through the region on Saturday. The GFS continues to show the font crossing the region Saturday morning, while the CMC and ECMWF have the front crossing the region Saturday evening. For now have trended the frontal passage slightly slower, or more towards the ECMWF/ CMC solution.

Friday: A surface cold front will be approaching the region with a chance of showers and thunderstorms Friday afternoon thanks to an approaching dual jet streak. Moisture profiles remain not all that great around 500/300 mb which will likely limit precipitation to some extent, but the real question in the upper level forcing. For now have kept PoPs in the chance category, but ensemble guidance shows a wide range of solutions (no precipitation to near likely).

Saturday: A surface cold front will cross the region with a dry frontal passage expected as winds turn from the northwest (or downslope) just ahead. Expect high temperatures in the lower 80s with temperatures falling by the late afternoon.

Sunday/Monday: Low temperatures will be in the lower 50s Sunday and Monday mornings as high pressure approaches from the northwest. Some upper 40s are possible across interior zones Monday morning as high pressure approaches from the west. No precipitation is expected.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
VFR conditions will prevail through 00z Wednesday at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR conditions Tuesday through Friday. There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday as a cold front approaches the region from the northwest.

MARINE
Tonight: Northeast winds will persist overnight as high pressure holds inland. Speeds will average 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt nearshore waters and 15-20 kt with gusts to 25 kt over the Georgia offshore leg. Seas will range from 3-5 ft nearshore to 5-7 ft over the Georgia offshore leg where a Small Craft Advisory continues.

Tuesday through Thursday: High pressure located over the Mid- Atlantic will slowly translate east towards the Canadian Maritimes, but remain in control across the area. This will result in a pinched pressure gradient across the coastal waters, yielding enhanced northeasterly winds, generally 15 to 20 knots. There could be some gusts to 25 knots across the 20-60 nm offshore GA waters on Tuesday. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the 20-60 nm offshore GA waters through Thursday morning due to seas averaging 5- 7 ft. Additional marine zones may need to be added to the Small Craft Advisory at a future juncture for 6 ft seas. Otherwise, seas should average 3 to 5 ft.

Friday and Saturday: A cold front will approach the region late Friday and cross the waters Saturday with winds backing around from the west/northwest. Behind the cold front Saturday, winds will be out of the west/northwest around 10 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Expect seas 3 to 5 ft.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Astronomical tide levels have peaked and will continue to fall through the week. For Charleston, minor and possible moderate coastal flooding is expected with the Tuesday morning high tide.
We could then see one more round of minor coastal flooding Wednesday morning. At Fort Pulaski, coastal flooding is very likely finished for this cycle. The Tuesday morning astronomical tide is 8.38 ft MLLW, but it does not appear tidal departure values will support reaching the minor coastal flood threshold.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ374.

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Coffee Bluff
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Mon -- 05:31 AM EDT     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:00 PM EDT     9.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:05 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:19 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Coffee Bluff, Forest River, Georgia, Tide feet

Savannah River Entrance
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Mon -- 03:00 AM EDT     -2.38 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 05:40 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:17 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:21 AM EDT     2.71 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 10:48 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:04 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 03:28 PM EDT     -2.48 knots Max Ebb
Mon -- 06:21 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Mon -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:51 PM EDT     2.10 knots Max Flood
Mon -- 09:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Savannah River Entrance, Georgia Current, knots

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Charleston, SC,