NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
Late this evening: Surface analysis shows the remnant center of the remnant circulation of Francine across the lower Mississippi Valley with high pressure wedged in across most of Georgia and the Carolinas. Through the rest of the night, most of the area should be quiet and mostly dry. The area with the best chance for additional rainfall will be the South Carolina coastal waters and eastern portions of Berkeley and Charleston counties. Model guidance is in good agreement that beginning in the early morning hours, showers will break out offshore within an inverted trough and could push onshore along the upper Charleston County coast. Rain chances have been adjusted accordingly, 30-40 percent chances around Awendaw, McClellanville, and Jamestown. Otherwise, overcast skies will prevail with northeast winds. Lows are forecast to fall mostly into the low 70s, with a few upper 60s possible far inland.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/
Friday: Surface high pressure will continue to wedge into the Southern Appalachians through the weekend with a slow northward lifting warm front to our south. Meanwhile, deep tropical moisture from the remnants of Francine will persist over the area as the system stalls over Arkansas. Additionally, a broad trough looks to develop offshore the Southeast coast. With PWAts near or above 2", scattered showers are expected across the forecast area Friday with a general increase in precip chances through the day. Thunder potential does not look impressive; however, a few embedded thunderstorms are certainly possible.
QPF values overall look minimal with the bulk of rainfall around 1 inch or so across our inland Southeast Georgia counties.
Highs will be in the low to mid 80s, with lows generally in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s at the beaches.

Saturday and Sunday: As much of the forecast still depends on whether this low pressure develops off of the SE coast, high uncertainty still exists. All the models are playing out a different scenario as to if and when the low develops, and how strong it is going to be. NHC has a 30% of tropical development for this low on their 7-day tropical outlook. To say the least, there is a lot to determine in the next couple of days. For now, the greatest chance of rain seems to be Saturday and Sunday evening. A few thunderstorms can't be ruled out. PWATs for Saturday are looking to be 1.8-2.2" according the HRRR. As for temperatures, they are expected to be below normal.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
High uncertainty exists in the long term period, especially with the details of the timing, placement, and intensity of a potential coastal low pressure. For now, the forecast doesn't stray far from the NBM output featuring chance PoPs each day.
Temperatures below normal initially is expected to moderate with time.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
At the start of the 00z TAF period, VFR conditions are in place at KCHS, KJZI, and KSAV. There could be a little light rain at KCHS and KJZI for the next few hours, but no flight restrictions are expected. The biggest forecast challenge is the potential for IFR ceilings tonight which could continue through much of Friday. Model guidance favors ceilings lowering to MVFR in the 04-06z time period, then lowering into the IFR range in the 07-09z time period. IFR ceilings could then linger to at least midday before improving to MVFR for the afternoon. There could be some shower activity near KCHS and KJZI late tonight. Then for Friday afternoon, the best chance of shower activity will be at KSAV, mainly starting in the mid to late afternoon.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Flight restrictions are possible in low clouds and showers with potentially a few thunderstorms Friday through the weekend.

MARINE
Tonight: The sfc pattern will remain dominated by a ridge centered over the western Carolinas and Georgia. Late tonight, an inverted trough is expected to develop over the western Atlantic, drifting over the coastal waters late tonight. The pressure gradient should remain the greatest late this afternoon into this evening. East-northeast winds may increase to 15-20 kts with gusts to 25 kts across the coastal waters. Gusts to 25 kts will be possible in the Charleston Harbor for a couple of hours late this afternoon and evening. As the sfc trough advances towards the coast, the pressure gradient should relax and winds will gradually decrease. By late tonight, winds are forecast to decrease to 10-15 kts with gusts around 20 kts. Seas this evening are forecast to range between 5-7 ft, decreasing to 3-6 ft late tonight. Small Craft Advisories are scheduled to end first over the nearshore GA and lower SC waters tonight, then the coastal Charleston County nearshore waters by 8 AM.

Friday through Tuesday: Northeast winds are expected to prevail through the weekend as high pressure continues to wedge south into the region. Conditions are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria during this time period, although could be on an upward trend as a coastal trough and potentially an area of low pressure develops offshore. Forecast becomes increasingly uncertain late weekend into early next week as much hinges on the evolution of the aforementioned feature, should it develop. One possible scenario is that it tracks towards the Southeast coast. Small Craft Advisories will be possible.

Gusty NE winds combined with a swell of 3 feet every 8 seconds favors a moderate risk of rip currents for all beaches Friday.
The Rip Current MOS was trending a high risk for rip currents for SE GA beaches, however decided to go with a moderate risk as the majority of the models were not indicating this. An elevated risk will for rip currents will persist through the weekend.

Rip Currents: Gusty NE winds combined with a swell of 3 feet every 8 seconds favors a moderate risk of rip currents for all beaches Friday. The Rip Current MOS was trending a high risk for rip currents for SE GA beaches, however decided to go with a moderate risk as the majority of the models were not indicating this. An elevated risk will for rip currents will persist through the weekend.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
Charleston and coastal Colleton Counties: Persistent and strong onshore winds will lead to elevated tidal departures into the weekend. Coastal flooding will be possible with the late afternoon high tide cycle on Friday. The threat for coastal flooding will increase during the late afternoon\evening high tides this weekend. The potential for coastal flooding will remain next week with the approach of the full moon and perigee.
Both high tide cycles could be of concern next week. Coastal Flood Advisories/Watches/Warnings could be needed.

The rest of the coast: Minor coastal flooding will be possible with the high tide cycles this weekend into next week. Coastal Flood Advisories could be needed.

CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for AMZ350.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Friday for AMZ352-354.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for AMZ374.