Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Trinidad, TX

SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Overnight through Saturday/

Mostly clear skies with warm and humid conditions will persist through the rest of tonight into early Friday morning. Water vapor imagery shows a slow moving upper trough now centered off to our northeast with North Texas on the back side of this system resulting in drier mid level air spreading into the region. The boundary layer will remain moisture rich though today and again Saturday resulting in strong afternoon instability, but a lack of any appreciable forcing should keep any convection rather spotty in nature. We'll keep some low PoPs in the forecast today and again Saturday mainly along and east of I-35 where moisture is highest. While PoPs are generally low, it is worth noting that we're not strongly subsident and remain within a persistent broad north/northwest flow which could trend more favorable for an uptick in afternoon and late evening convection with little advance notice from model guidance. Weak perturbations within this flow pattern combined with a moderately unstable airmass can result in a greater coverage of convection than currently forecast. Afternoon highs will top out in the lower 90s today and creep upward a degree or two by Saturday.

Dunn

LONG TERM
/Issued 258 PM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025/ Update:

The upper level trough will give way to an upper ridge building in from the west this weekend, limiting rain chances through early next week. That said, it is MCS season and models do hint that a decaying MCS out of Oklahoma may be possible Saturday night. If this MCS does develop, a brief damaging wind concern could materialize for the Red River counties.

Temperatures will peak on Tuesday with lower 90s in the southeast to near 100 in the northwest. By mid to late week, the ridge starts to break down, allowing for increase thunderstorm chances and slight cooler temperatures.

OUN

Previous Discussion: /Friday Night Onward/

A slow-moving upper trough with an enclosed low will continue shifting northeast and away from the region this weekend as a mid/upper ridge builds in from the west. Rain chances will hence decrease and shift east into the eastern counties of North and Central Texas this weekend into the early part of next week. One exception may be Saturday night, when recent operational deterministic guidance has indicated a complex of storms developing in Oklahoma and pushing south through North Texas around the east flank of the ridge. That scenario is not unusual for June, so POPs may need to be raised for areas north of I-20 for Saturday night. If this MCS does develop, a brief damaging wind concern could materialize for the Red River counties.

Whatever the case, temperatures climb to above-normal values late weekend through the middle of next week. At this time it looks like the warmest weather will occur on Tuesday, when highs will range from the lower 90s in the southeast to near 100 in the northwest. The ridge will break down Wednesday into next Thursday as a shortwave moves east across the Rockies, bringing additional storm chances along with slightly cooler temperatures mid to late next week.

30

AVIATION
/NEW/ /6Z TAFs/

VFR will generally prevail, although a very moist near surface layer has already resulted in some isolated MVFR/IFR cigs across parts of the D10 airspace. We'll maintain FEW012 at this time and monitor satellite trends, but a TEMPO for BKN012 cigs will likely be needed for some locations later tonight into early Friday morning. We'll have this from 12-15Z, but adjustments will be made as needed. Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected mainly east of the major airports today and again Saturday. South flow around 10 kt will prevail through the period.

Dunn

SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 75 92 74 92 76 / 5 5 20 10 5 Waco 74 90 74 90 74 / 5 10 5 20 5 Paris 72 90 72 88 73 / 10 20 30 20 10 Denton 73 93 72 92 73 / 5 10 30 10 5 McKinney 74 91 73 90 74 / 5 10 30 20 5 Dallas 75 94 75 93 77 / 5 10 20 10 5 Terrell 73 90 73 90 74 / 5 10 20 20 5 Corsicana 75 91 75 90 75 / 5 10 10 20 5 Temple 74 92 73 91 73 / 5 10 5 20 5 Mineral Wells 72 94 72 93 73 / 5 5 20 10 5

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.