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FXUS64 KFWD 280903 AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 303 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023

New Long Term

SHORT TERM
/Issued 1229 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ /Through Wednesday/

As surface high pressure remains centered over North and Central Texas, calm/light, variable winds will prevail through the overnight. Light southerly low-level flow will return by midday Tuesday as the center of high pressure shifts eastward. Mid- to high-level clouds will remain overhead through much of the overnight before dry west-southwesterly flow aloft shunts the bulk of the cloud cover to the south and east near daybreak Tuesday morning. Cloud cover should keep most locations south of Highway 380 from falling below freezing later tonight into early Tuesday morning. However, thinner cloud cover and the potential for high clouds to clear later tonight across far North Texas may allow for a few hours of efficient radiational cooling and a light freeze (29-32 degrees) across the two northernmost tiers of our CWA's counties, primarily along the Highway 82 corridor in the vicinity of the Red River Valley.

A gradual warming trend will take place over the next few days as southerly low-level flow becomes more established over North and Central Texas in response to pressure falls in the lee of the Rockies ahead of the next storm system (discussed in the long-term portion below). Expect afternoon highs in the mid 50s to low 60s on Tuesday and highs in the low to mid 60s on Wednesday. More substantial moisture return and associated low-level cloud cover will be delayed until late Wednesday into Thursday, allowing for another chilly night Tuesday night with overnight lows in the mid to upper 30s across much of the region and low 40s in the immediate DFW Metroplex.

Langfeld

LONG TERM
/NEW/ /Wednesday night though Monday/

The main weather maker the second half of the week will be a fast moving shortwave approaching from the Desert Southwest. The approaching system will bring increasing diffluence aloft and strong low level warm air advection, resulting in scattered to numerous showers Wednesday night. A few rumbles of thunder are also possible as large scale ascent works to destabilize the mid- levels of the atmosphere. An overcast sky and warm air advection will keep overnight lows generally in the 50s.

Instability and lift will be maximized on Thursday when the compact shortwave moves across New Mexico into Texas, dragging a Pacific cold front with it. Numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop through the day with the best coverage east of the I-35 corridor. Extensive cloud cover and veered low level flow ahead of the cold front will likely limit the severe weather threat, but a few stronger storms may be able to develop with the southeast zones being the favored area.

The shortwave trough axis will move east of the region Thursday evening, taking all the precipitation with it. Drier and cooler air will move into the region behind the cold front with lows Thursday night ranging from the mid 30s in the northwest to the mid 40s in the southeast. Highs on Friday will warm into the 50s with brief shortwave ridging aloft and plenty of sun offsetting weak cold air advection. The upper ridge will move quickly east Friday afternoon/evening while a series of shortwaves move across the region over the weekend. Although low level moisture will be limited, a few showers may develop in the east with the passing shortwaves both Saturday and Sunday. Highs Saturday and Sunday will be in the lower and middle 60s with lows in the 40s.

The first week of December should start off rain-free with lows Monday morning from the mid 30s to the lower 40s and highs in the 60s. Ridging aloft will likely result in similar weather through at least the middle of the week.

79

AVIATION
/Issued 1229 AM CST Tue Nov 28 2023/ /06Z TAFs/

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all TAF sites. Light, variable winds (at times calm) will continue through the overnight under a blanket of mid- to high-level clouds. South flow should return after ~16Z Tuesday as surface high pressure shifts to the east. Cloud cover will diminish near daybreak Tuesday with another round of high clouds expected to push in from the west Tuesday evening/night.

Langfeld


PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 60 41 62 51 64 / 0 0 0 50 80 Waco 58 40 60 54 67 / 0 0 5 50 80 Paris 58 36 61 48 60 / 0 0 0 60 90 Denton 60 37 61 49 62 / 0 0 0 40 80 McKinney 59 37 61 50 62 / 0 0 0 50 90 Dallas 60 41 61 52 64 / 0 0 0 50 80 Terrell 59 37 61 51 63 / 0 0 0 60 90 Corsicana 61 41 63 54 66 / 0 0 0 60 90 Temple 60 40 61 53 70 / 0 0 5 50 70 Mineral Wells 61 38 63 51 66 / 0 0 0 20 60

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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