Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Trinidad, TX
May 18, 2024 12:17 AM CDT (05:17 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:24 AM Sunset 8:20 PM Moonrise 3:01 PM Moonset 2:41 AM |
Area Discussion for - Fort Worth, TX
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FXUS64 KFWD 180438 AFDFWD
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1138 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
New Short Term, Aviation
SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Overnight through Saturday night/
The axis of a shortwave will shift east of the region overnight while a mid level ridge builds in from the west. Subsidence on the backside of the departing shortwave will bring an end to all precipitation chances overnight. The ground will remain moist from recent rainfall, and the combination of a light wind and a mostly clear sky will result in patchy, shallow fog overnight.
Fog is most likely to develop across the southeast zones where the wind will remain calm and dewpoints will hold in the upper 60s to around 70 through the night. The fog may briefly become dense in a few spots, especially towards sunrise. Any fog that does develop will erode quickly after sunrise with vigorous boundary layer mixing.
Deep, dry air under the ridge will yield ample late spring sun, pushing high temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s. A light wind and shallow but abundant low level moisture will make it feel even hotter with heat index values topping out in the middle 90s for many. It will remain warm and humid Saturday night with lows mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
79
LONG TERM
/Issued 256 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024/ /Saturday Night Onward/
A mid level ridge will create above-normal temperatures across the board late weekend through early next week. Increasing southerly low level flow will simultaneously increase dewpoints by drawing Gulf moisture northward through the region. A hot and humid stretch can hence be expected for the first half of the week, with Tuesday likely being the most oppressive as heat indices peak around 100 in the afternoon.
Despite the heat, the ridge will begin to weaken on Tuesday as a pair shortwaves traverse the Plains. The first will send a weak cold front southward to near the Red River on Tuesday, likely bolstering the afternoon heat due to compressional warming south of the front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, but most of this activity will remain north of the Red River. The second shortwave will push the front farther south into the forecast area on Wednesday. The front will provide focus for thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon and evening. Some storms may end up being severe based on the 40+ kt of deep layer shear and good instability being advertised by model guidance over the past few days. Another round of convection appears likely on Thursday as a third shortwave passes through the Southern Plains, with a few storms again possibly being strong to severe. The presence of the surface boundary may also lead to training storms and localized flooding.
With all that said, it is still too soon to delve into the specifics regarding timing and intensity, but we will gather more details as higher resolution guidance is received over the next few days. The ridge will restrengthen next Friday, returning the region to warm and humid weather to end the week. A slight chance of storms may return next weekend as mid range guidance hints at some possible dryline activity during the final week of May.
30
AVIATION
/NEW/ /06Z TAFs/
A building ridge aloft will yield VFR conditions at all TAF sites through Saturday night with scattered high clouds and a few daytime Cu. A light wind and mostly clear sky may result in patchy and shallow morning fog in a few locations. Any significant visibility restrictions should occur across the Brazos Valley, southeast of Waco, where dewpoints are currently in the upper 60s to around 70.
A south to southeast wind will continue at all TAF sites through Saturday night at sustained speeds below 10 knots.
79
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 92 71 91 73 / 5 0 0 0 0 Waco 65 89 69 88 69 / 10 0 0 0 0 Paris 63 87 66 88 69 / 20 0 0 0 0 Denton 64 91 68 91 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 McKinney 65 90 68 90 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dallas 67 92 71 91 73 / 5 0 0 0 0 Terrell 64 89 68 88 69 / 20 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 66 90 70 90 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 Temple 65 89 68 88 69 / 10 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 63 92 68 91 71 / 5 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1138 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024
New Short Term, Aviation
SHORT TERM
/NEW/ /Overnight through Saturday night/
The axis of a shortwave will shift east of the region overnight while a mid level ridge builds in from the west. Subsidence on the backside of the departing shortwave will bring an end to all precipitation chances overnight. The ground will remain moist from recent rainfall, and the combination of a light wind and a mostly clear sky will result in patchy, shallow fog overnight.
Fog is most likely to develop across the southeast zones where the wind will remain calm and dewpoints will hold in the upper 60s to around 70 through the night. The fog may briefly become dense in a few spots, especially towards sunrise. Any fog that does develop will erode quickly after sunrise with vigorous boundary layer mixing.
Deep, dry air under the ridge will yield ample late spring sun, pushing high temperatures into the upper 80s and lower 90s. A light wind and shallow but abundant low level moisture will make it feel even hotter with heat index values topping out in the middle 90s for many. It will remain warm and humid Saturday night with lows mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
79
LONG TERM
/Issued 256 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024/ /Saturday Night Onward/
A mid level ridge will create above-normal temperatures across the board late weekend through early next week. Increasing southerly low level flow will simultaneously increase dewpoints by drawing Gulf moisture northward through the region. A hot and humid stretch can hence be expected for the first half of the week, with Tuesday likely being the most oppressive as heat indices peak around 100 in the afternoon.
Despite the heat, the ridge will begin to weaken on Tuesday as a pair shortwaves traverse the Plains. The first will send a weak cold front southward to near the Red River on Tuesday, likely bolstering the afternoon heat due to compressional warming south of the front. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening, but most of this activity will remain north of the Red River. The second shortwave will push the front farther south into the forecast area on Wednesday. The front will provide focus for thunderstorm development Wednesday afternoon and evening. Some storms may end up being severe based on the 40+ kt of deep layer shear and good instability being advertised by model guidance over the past few days. Another round of convection appears likely on Thursday as a third shortwave passes through the Southern Plains, with a few storms again possibly being strong to severe. The presence of the surface boundary may also lead to training storms and localized flooding.
With all that said, it is still too soon to delve into the specifics regarding timing and intensity, but we will gather more details as higher resolution guidance is received over the next few days. The ridge will restrengthen next Friday, returning the region to warm and humid weather to end the week. A slight chance of storms may return next weekend as mid range guidance hints at some possible dryline activity during the final week of May.
30
AVIATION
/NEW/ /06Z TAFs/
A building ridge aloft will yield VFR conditions at all TAF sites through Saturday night with scattered high clouds and a few daytime Cu. A light wind and mostly clear sky may result in patchy and shallow morning fog in a few locations. Any significant visibility restrictions should occur across the Brazos Valley, southeast of Waco, where dewpoints are currently in the upper 60s to around 70.
A south to southeast wind will continue at all TAF sites through Saturday night at sustained speeds below 10 knots.
79
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Dallas-Ft. Worth 67 92 71 91 73 / 5 0 0 0 0 Waco 65 89 69 88 69 / 10 0 0 0 0 Paris 63 87 66 88 69 / 20 0 0 0 0 Denton 64 91 68 91 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 McKinney 65 90 68 90 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dallas 67 92 71 91 73 / 5 0 0 0 0 Terrell 64 89 68 88 69 / 20 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 66 90 70 90 71 / 10 0 0 0 0 Temple 65 89 68 88 69 / 10 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 63 92 68 91 71 / 5 0 0 0 0
FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KCRS C DAVID CAMPBELL FIELDCORSICANA MUNI,TX | 19 sm | 24 min | SSE 04 | 10 sm | Clear | 73°F | 66°F | 78% | 29.83 |
Dallas/Fort Worth, TX,
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