South Tucson, AZ Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Tucson, AZ

June 17, 2024 7:06 AM MST (14:06 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:15 AM   Sunset 7:34 PM
Moonrise 3:41 PM   Moonset 1:58 AM 
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Tucson, AZ
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Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 245 AM MST Mon Jun 17 2024

Temperatures decrease a bit today and Tuesday before heating up again by Thursday. Moisture may begin to increase late next week which would bring the potential for high-based thunderstorms late in the week into this weekend.

The sky was clear this morning across southern Arizona per latest satellite imagery. Water vapor imagery this morning showed an upper level trof moving through the PacNW which will continue east today. This feature will bring afternoon breezes this afternoon and elevated fire weather concerns which is addresses in the fire weather section below. Highs today will be cooler than this weekend, around 2 to 6 degrees with biggest change being across western Pima county.

Tuesday: Upper level trofiness continues across the western CONUS with highs at or slightly cooler than today or around mid-June normals.

Wednesday: Upper level heights/low-level thickness values increase for warmer highs temperatures, around 2 to 4 degrees warmer than Tuesday. To our east a rather impressive tropical wave moves inland across Texas and eastern Mexico.

Wednesday night/Thursday morning: Westward push of moisture into New Mexico with above mentioned tropical wave will help fuel thunderstorm activity across New Mexico with thunderstorm outflows sending shallow surface moisture, with dewpoints into the 50s across Graham/Greenlee/Cochise counties Thursday morning.

Thursday: With the increase in moisture, although at the surface they will mix out, there is a slight chance, less than 20% for high-based thunderstorms mainly near the AZ/NM border. Another shallow moisture push west from thunderstorm outflows with surface dewpoints in the 50s making as far west as Picacho to Sasabe line Friday morning.

Friday: Westward push of moisture will bring a 10% chance from western Pima county to a 50% chance near AZ/NM border of showers/thunderstorms with a mix of wet/dry storms. Had to make some slight adjustments down with respect to PoPs as the initialized guidance from NBM was a bit too high, likely driven by the wetter ensemble members from GEPS.

Thursday and Friday will also be hot with heat risk for areas from Tucson west up in the major risk category. Per coordination with WFO Phoenix held off on issuing any heat related products.
Something for later shifts consider.

This upcoming weekend: Chance of thunderstorms each day as elevated moisture for June remains over the area. At this time, high temperatures will be not as hot as Thu/Fri.

Valid through 18/12Z.
SKC. SFC wind less than 10 kts and variable in direction until 17/16Z and then again 18/04z. Btwn 17/16z and 18/04z, SFC wind SWLY at 12-18 kts with gusts to 22-30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

A few degrees of cooling early today and Tuesday.
High temperatures will then heat back up Thursday and Friday.
Through the middle of this week, expect min RH values of 4-9 percent in the lower elevations and 8-15 percent in the mountains, along with overnight recoveries between 25-40 percent in most locations. RH values then increase 5-10 percent the latter half of the week. Surface winds increase today, with southwest winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to 30-35 mph. A few areas will be near critical fire weather thresholds this afternoon, but at this time we not expecting it to be widespread enough for a warning.
Elevated afternoon/early evening winds of 15-20 mph then continue for much of this week with an uptick in speeds for the eastern zones (Safford area) on Thursday and Friday. By the end of this week, models show an increase in mid-level moisture, resulting in a slight chance mainly dry thunderstorms to the east of Tucson Thursday and and as far west as Tucson Friday and Saturday.

The average daily dewpoints will be increasing across southeast Arizona as the week progresses. Below is the forecast average daily dewpoint values for Tucson over the next 7 days.

Today: 34F Tuesday: 35F Wednesday: 39F Thursday: 44F Friday: 55F Saturday: 57F Sunday: 58F

Confidence moderate in these values.


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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherAirDewPtRHinHg
KDMA DAVIS MONTHAN AFB,AZ 5 sm11 minSE 0810 smClear81°F41°F24%29.75
KTUS TUCSON INTL,AZ 7 sm13 minSE 0610 smClear81°F39°F23%29.75
KRYN RYAN FIELD,AZ 12 sm21 minE 0610 smClear82°F36°F19%29.69
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Tucson, AZ,

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