Thursday, February27, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Tucson, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 6:20PM Thursday February 27, 2020 8:16 AM MST (15:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:16AMMoonset 10:04PM Illumination 17% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Tucson, AZ
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location: 32.22, -110.96     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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FXUS65 KTWC 271004 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 304 AM MST Thu Feb 27 2020

SYNOPSIS. Dry conditions will continue into Sunday with warmer than normal daytime temperatures. A weather system moving across the area will bring a chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers Sunday night through Monday night with a few snow showers possible Monday night across valley areas east and south of Tucson. Much cooler temperatures will also occur Monday followed by drier conditions and a warming trend by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION. Warmer with less wind this afternoon thanks to a weakening pressure gradient. A few high clouds will grace the sky today. Friday into Saturday the warm temperatures will continue although high clouds will be more prevalent and thicker. Overall, winds will be relatively light Friday through Saturday.

The storm system the models have been advertising for quite some time is still on track and more recent deterministic runs have returned to the original scenario with the upper low moving across southern Arizona. While this system is not expected to be a heavy precipitation producer, the return to having the upper low over the area does result in a better chance of showers and also a colder system as it moves overhead. There has been some consolidation in timing with the main focus of precipitation occurring Monday although a threat of showers exists Sunday evening through Monday night.

I have made some adjustments with this forecast package based on the above idea. For Monday I pushed pops up further and dropped afternoon high temperatures another couple of degrees, pretty much mid 50s across the valleys. Forecast thickness values would suggest even a bit cooler is possible but a few peeks of sunshine would negate that.

For Tuesday night in this scenario, snow levels would drop below 4000 ft so the valley areas east and south of Tucson stand a chance of some scattered snow showers. Likely not much precipitation at that point but something that will need to be watched, especially if some showers end up being a bit heavier and dynamic cooling rears its ugly head.

Tuesday onward clouds and precipitation threat diminish rapidly in the deterministic runs vs the NBM and leaned toward the deterministic runs during that time frame. Temperatures will be gradually warming after Monday but are likely to remain below normal through Thursday.

AVIATION. Valid through 28/12Z. SKC or FEW clouds AOA 25k ft MSL this morning, with SCT-BKN clouds AOA 25k ft MSL this afternoon into Friday morning. SFC winds SELY to NELY mainly less than 12 kts thru the forecast period, though a few higher gusts may occur at KTUS and KSAD this morning. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER. Well above normal temperatures and daytime humidity values in the low to mid teens will persist through Saturday. Dry conditions are expected through Sunday afternoon. A storm system will bring isolated to scattered valley rain and mountain snow showers Sunday evening through Monday evening, with the best chances for precipitation occuring during the day Monday. Isolated showers may continue across the White Mountains Tuesday and Wednesday. Expect easterly 20-ft winds today and Friday at less than 15 mph. West winds should occur on Saturday, followed by gusty southwest winds of 15 to 25 mph on Sunday ahead of the next weather system. Elevated west to southwest winds should occur near the AZ/NM border next Monday and Tuesday.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.

Public . Cerniglia Aviation . Carpenter Fire Weather . Carpenter

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ5 mi79 minE 810.00 miFair44°F13°F29%1023.2 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ7 mi24 minE 710.00 miFair50°F10°F20%1023.6 hPa
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ12 mi32 minE 410.00 miFair45°F17°F34%1025.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDMA

Wind History from DMA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE9
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NE16NE13NE13NE13NE9E4SE6SE8SE10E4E9E8CalmN3E8E8E10
1 day agoCalmNW4N5NW3NE4NW20
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N9E10----E10--E7NE10NE9----NE11NE11NE15NE12NE12N14
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW11W11NW9NW11NW10NW5W6W5SW7SW6E6SE7SE5SE5E4CalmSE4SE4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.