NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION. Privacy and Cookie policy

FXUS65 KTWC 022109 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 209 PM MST Sat Dec 2 2023

SYNOPSIS
Cold overnight temperatures this weekend into Monday.
It will be dry next week with high temperatures running 8-12 degrees above normal.

DISCUSSION
Satellite shows a shallow cumulus field to the north of Tucson thanks to leftover boundary layer moisture. Snow is also visible on mountain peaks across southeast Arizona from yesterday's system, which is currently moving into the Midwest. In its wake a cold air mass is in place with temperatures this afternoon running 3-6 degrees below normal. Tonight lows will likely be the coldest they've been so far this winter/fall. The Sulphur Springs Valley will see lows in the mid 20s with low- lying areas and normally cold areas seeing temperatures in the low 20s. Area south of Tucson such as Green Valley could see lows briefly hit freezing, but most of the metro area will see lows in the mid to upper 30s.

After today positive height anomalies will be in place over Arizona thanks to ridging over the western U.S. This will lead to an increase in temperatures into next week. During the work week expect highs to run 8-12 degrees above normal. Starting Tuesday the Tucson metro will have a 20-30 percent chance each day through Friday to hit 80 degrees.

Late in the week ensembles show a pattern change with a trough moving into the region. The WPC cluster analysis is in good agreement with a pattern change, but differ in the depth and speed of the trough. At the very least right now it looks like this pattern change will bring cooler temperatures and some breezy winds next weekend.

AVIATION
Valid through 04/00Z.
SKC for much of southeastern Arizona with FEW to SCT clouds at or around 20-25k ft MSL popping up throughout the forecast period.
Variable SFC winds at 2-7 kts across the area becoming northwesterly after at 5-10 kts with gusts up to 15 kts this afternoon and Sunday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry and cool weekend in the wake of yesterdays weather system. Dry conditions will continue through the new work week with temperature becoming much warmer. Winds generally light, less than 15 mph sustained, with a bit of afternoon gustiness at times well into next week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

toggle option: (graph/table)

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Tucson, AZ,