Thursday, July9, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tucson Estates, AZ

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:23AMSunset 7:35PM Wednesday July 8, 2020 11:59 PM MST (06:59 UTC) Moonrise 10:28PMMoonset 8:44AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tucson Estates CDP, AZ
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location: 32.22, -111.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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FXUS65 KTWC 082236 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 335 PM MST Wed Jul 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. Very hot daytime temperatures into early next week, with record or near record highs Friday through Monday. Isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorms if they occur will mainly be confined to near the International Border and across the White Mountains.

DISCUSSION. Scattered cumulus across southeast Arizona were generally struggling to overcome a stout inversion noted around H5 on this morning's KTWC RAOB. A few weak echoes were noted across the Chiricahua's and the Huachuca's, with a few better organized cells south of the Int'l Border. A few hi-res CAMs still suggest some additional development this afternoon along the Int'l border adjacent Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties, but confidence remains low in this scenario. Surface temperatures valid 08/22z were running around 1-3 degrees cooler compared to 24 hours ago. We'll have a repeat performance tomorrow, both in the way of temperatures and precip chances as high pressure moves very little over the next day or so.

High pressure then strengthens and builds northward Friday into this weekend, with our forecast of near record to record high temperatures still looking to be on track. That said, and in coordination with neighboring offices, the Excessive Heat Watch for much of southeast Arizona was upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning from Friday through next Monday. Temperatures this weekend will approach all-time July record highs in some locations. Both GFS and ECMWF 700-850 mb thicknesses suggest Sunday will be the hottest day this weekend, with NBM temperatures continuing to increase but still remaining several degrees cooler than local thickness regressions. Very minor if any changes were made to the inherited high temperature forecast during this impending heat wave period.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast each afternoon for a few spots across the CWA, mainly near the Int'l border through Friday and then across the White Mountains this weekend. Upper level flow will become easterly this weekend and southerly next week, which should help usher in some better moisture for convection to develop, however model solutions are still hesitant to commit fully to this scenario. Will still keep slight chance PoPs in the forecast during the afternoon through the middle of next week for mainly higher elevations south and east of Tucson with the thinking that a better monsoon setup is on the way. Temperatures will also come down a few degrees next Tuesday and Wednesday, but still look to be 3 to 5 degrees above normal.

AVIATION. Valid through 10/00Z. Isolated -TSRA/-SHRA this afternoon mostly near the International Border in Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties with brief outflow gusts to near 40 kts possible. FEW-SCT clouds 10k-15k ft MSL this afternoon and evening then some thin cirrus may move in overnight. SFC winds WLY/NWLY 8-12 kts with occasional gusts around 20 kts, decreasing after sundown. Winds less than 10 kts overnight increasing again out of the W/NW at 8-12 kts Thursday afternoon. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER. Slight thunderstorm chances continue this week, confined along the International Border through Friday. Chances then shift mainly to the White Mountains for Saturday into early next week. Heat remains the primary weather concern with high temperatures approaching or exceeding records in some locations this weekend. 20-ft winds will generally remain less than 15 mph outside of the usual afternoon gustiness due to daytime heating. The strongest winds are expected across the Upper Gila River Valley this afternoon, Thursday, and early next week.

CLIMATE. Forecast and record high temps Friday into Sunday for Tucson:

Date July 10 July 11 July 12 FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR Tucson Int'l Airport 108 109/2019 111 111/1958 114 110/2005

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Friday to 8 PM MST Monday for AZZ502-504-509.

Excessive Heat Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 8 PM MST Monday for AZZ501-503-505>508-515.



Carpenter/Hardin

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ16 mi67 minW 810.00 miFair93°F45°F19%1006.9 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ18 mi2 hrsW 12 G 2410.00 miPartly Cloudy96°F51°F22%1006.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTUS

Wind History from TUS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4S5S9S4S7S9S8S7S8CalmCalmW9W3W3SW6NW7
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1 day agoW6W5W5CalmSW6SE3SE6SE9CalmCalmCalm4NW8N9--NW8
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2 days agoW5E4SW3SE6S4SE8S4SE5S3CalmCalm54NW8N10
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.