Sunrise 5:41 AM   Sunset 7:02 PM Moonrise 9:06 PM   Moonset 6:31 AM

  Print   HELP   Reset   Save   Recall

FXUS65 KTWC 251001 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 301 AM MST Thu Apr 25 2024

SYNOPSIS
Weather systems passing north of our area will bring strong gusty winds the last half of the week. Precip chances should generally stay north of the area, but temperatures will fall below average today into Saturday. High pressure with a rapid warming trend will push temperatures back to well above average again by Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION
Breezy to windy day across southeast Arizona as a weather system, currently extending from srn NV into srn CA, moves across the state. Strongest winds will be across Greenlee, Graham and Cochise counties with fire weather concerns near the AZ/NM border. See fire weather sections below for details.

Gusty winds continue Friday and Saturday with another system pushing through the state on Saturday. A few rain/snow showers possible mainly over the mountains NE of Tucson.

Both of these system will bring below normal high temperatures today through Saturday. Temperatures rebound Sunday with continued warming into the first half of next week.

AVIATION
Valid through 26/12Z.
Generally clear skies/SKC conditions thru 25/17Z, then FEW-SCT clouds at 7k-10k ft AGL thru the remainder of the forecast period.
SFC wind less than 12 kts and variable in direction thru 25/15Z and again aft 26/02Z. SWLY/WLY SFC wind increasing aft 25/15Z to 15-22 kts and gusts to 25-32 kts between 25/16Z and 26/02Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
A weather system will move north of the area today, dropping temperatures below normal and increasing wind speeds.
Wind speeds will be near critical levels over portions of Cochise, Graham and Greenlee counties. Another weather system will move across the area Friday night and Saturday, resulting in even cooler temperatures and highs 5-10 degrees below normal Saturday, as well as strong winds areawide. This system will also bring a chance of showers mainly north/northeast of Safford on Saturday and maybe even a few lighting strikes Saturday afternoon. Min RH values in the valleys will be in the 12-20 percent through Saturday, decreasing into the single digits early next week. Min RH values in the mountains will be in the 25-40 percent range through Saturday, lowering to 10-20 percent early next week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

Full Color Weather Map

Link to Loop


Other links: GEOS-West     Contential US     Full GOES-East

Tucson, AZ,