Tuesday, January21, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Tucson Estates, AZ

Version 3.4 		NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
Sunrise 7:22AMSunset 5:48PM Tuesday January 21, 2020 6:35 AM MST (13:35 UTC) Moonrise 4:41AMMoonset 3:05PM Illumination 14% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tucson Estates CDP, AZ
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location: 32.22, -111.21     debug

Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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FXUS65 KTWC 211041 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 341 AM MST Tue Jan 21 2020

SYNOPSIS. Cooler today with isolated to scattered showers persisting into Wednesday as a storm system moves across the area. Dry conditions return Thursday as temperatures warm back up to seasonable levels and continue through the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION. Satellite imagery indicated overcast conditions across the state the morning, with surface observations reporting temperatures and dewpoints around 5 to 10 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. This was due to an influx of moisture into the region ahead of an upper trough which was beginning to generate a few showers across the area. Satellite PWAT estimates valid 21/09Z near the AZ/NM border were approximately 0.6", with values increasing toward the west and approaching 0.9" near Ajo.

Expect shower activity to continue to increase across the region as this morning as the upper trough moves through. Various hi-res CAM solutions along with the GFS/ECMWF solutions agree that the trough axis and bulk of precipitation should push through the Tucson area late this morning. We could also see patchy fog develop in some areas due to rather low dewpoint depressions associated with areas of precip. We'll look for some quick clearing behind the main area of precip this afternoon, but lingering showers may continue into this evening, particularly across the higher elevations east of Tucson. Another quick-hitting shortwave is progged to move through late tonight into Wednesday morning. Instability associated with this wave may then work on the existing atmospheric moisture to generate a few rain and snow showers mainly across the higher elevations north and east of Tucson through Wednesday morning. Any rain and/or snow showers should end area-wide Wednesday afternoon.

Storm total QPF amounts (through Wednesday morning) should be fairly light, generally less than 0.15" in valley locations with locally higher amounts up to 0.50" in the mountains. Snow levels as of 21/10z are still above the mountain tops, but are expected to decrease throughout the day today, and especially tonight into early Wednesday. In general, expect storm total snowfall accumulations in the 1"-4" range above 8000 ft, with the highest totals across Mt. Graham and the White Mountains. Afternoon highs today will be much cooler with values 7 to 15 degrees cooler than Monday. Temperatures on Wednesday will rebound to within a few degrees of normal as ridging begins to build over the area from the west.

Thursday into the weekend, dry conditions return with seasonable temperatures under upper level ridging. A weak disturbance may undercut the ridge on Saturday, but moisture should remain well south of the area.

Early next week, deterministic and ensemble model solutions are suggesting some general troughiness and another weather system passing through the southwest states. Details to be ironed out with subsequent forecast packages.

AVIATION. Valid through 22/12Z. FEW-SCT clouds at 6k-10k ft MSL and BKN-OVC clouds at 11k-15k ft MSL this morning with some clearing late in the valid period. Isolated to scattered -SHRA continue to develop from west to east, with numerous -SHRA between 21/15Z and 21/21Z especially from KTUS eastward. Patchy BR possible with areas of heavier pcpn and brief MVFR cigs/vsbys. -SHRA decreasing from west to east this afternoon and this evening, with isolated -SHRA vicinity KTUS eastward tonight into Wednesday morning. SFC wind variable at generally less than 12 kts through the forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER. Scattered to numerous valley rain/mountain snow showers today. Lingering showers will continue Wednesday morning, mainly across the higher elevations east to northeast of Tucson. Dry conditions return area-wide Wednesday evening and continue through the upcoming weekend. 20-ft winds will mainly be terrain driven and less than 15 mph this week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. None.



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Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Tucson Ryan Field Airport, AZ6 mi50 minW 510.00 miFair54°F46°F77%1019.3 hPa
Tucson, Tucson International Airport, AZ16 mi42 minNNW 810.00 miOvercast56°F41°F57%1016.7 hPa
Davis-Monthan Air Force Base, AZ18 mi97 minNW 910.00 miOvercast56°F43°F63%1015.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KTUS

Wind History from TUS (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE15SE21
G30		SE20
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G21		SE12SE11SE9SE9SE7SW7N3CalmE8SE7CalmCalmSE9NW6SE4W6N9
G16		NW8
1 day agoS3SE11E9S6E13
G22		E10
G17		E76E5NE3N7NW6W3W5SE5SE5E8SE7SE9S7SE6S6SE16SE22
G29
2 days agoSE7SE4SE7S4S5S3N6NW8N8N7--NW4SW4Calm3S3SE5N3SE7SE7SE6SE11SE5Calm
Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Tucson, AZ (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Tucson, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.