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FXUS65 KTWC 090904 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 204 AM MST Sat Dec 9 2023

SYNOPSIS
High temperatures will be right around normal through the weekend. Breezy east to southeast winds will occur tonight into Sunday afternoon. Temperatures warm back up to above normal levels early to mid next week, with another brief cool down late next week.
Dry conditions persist through at least the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION
Surface high pressure building down the front range of the Rockies into west Texas will result in north to northeast winds today and then breezy east-southeast winds tonight through midday Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens across the southern half of Arizona. Wind speeds will be in the 10-18 mph range today and 15-25 mph with gusts to between 30-40 mph tonight and Sunday in locations susceptible to easterly winds. Guidance indicates the strongest easterly winds will be in the Tucson vicinity, with sustained wind speeds of 20-25 mph and gusts to near 40 mph between the mid morning to early afternoon hours on Sunday.

A very dry airmass will overspread southeast Arizona tonight through Monday as dewpoints fall into the single digits in the valleys, with values below zero in the higher elevations. Colder morning low temperatures are expected through Monday morning, with readings bottoming out in the upper 30s to lower 40s in the lower desert locations from Tucson westward. Winds will play a factor in the morning lows Sunday, with those locations where the winds stay elevated overnight warmer than locations sheltered from the winds.
Sheltered locations may see temperatures briefly dip down into the lower to mid 30s Sunday morning, with below freezing temperatures in the usual colder valleys to the south and east of Tucson.

Weak shortwave ridging takes place late Sunday and Monday, with near zonal flow across the state on Tuesday. High temperatures warm back up to 4-9 degrees above normal Monday and Tuesday. Another system then moves through the Great Basin and Four Corners Wednesday and Thursday of next week. The ensembles and deterministic models all keep the main impacts of this system to our north, with just a 10-20 percent chance of precipitation in the White Mountains and the rest of southeast Arizona remaining dry. Temperatures for the second half of next week will be near to slightly above normal.

AVIATION
Valid through 10/12Z.
SKC-SCT cirrus clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC wind less than 12 kts and variable in direction thru 09/17Z, then NLY/NELY SFC wind at 10-15 kts til 10/02Z. Aft 10/02Z, SFC wind becoming ELY/SELY at 12-20 kts and gusts to 22-35 kts thru the end of the forecast period. The strongest ELY/SELY SFC wind will be in the vicinity of KTUS. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures will be near normal through the weekend, before warming back up to 4-9 degrees above normal early to mid next week. Min RH values will be 7-15 percent in the valleys and 13-23 percent in the mountains into the middle of next week. 20-foot winds today will be north to northeast at 10-18 mph, with breezy east-southeast winds tonight and Sunday at 15-25 mph and higher gusts in locations exposed to easterly winds. Lighter wind speeds are then expected next week. Dry conditions will persist over the next week, except for a slight chance of precipitation in the White Mountains next Wednesday and Thursday.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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