Tucson Estates, AZ Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tucson Estates, AZ

June 14, 2024 8:18 PM MST (03:18 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:15 AM   Sunset 7:33 PM
Moonrise 12:54 PM   Moonset 12:44 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Tucson Estates CDP, AZ
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Area Discussion for - Tucson, AZ
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FXUS65 KTWC 142135 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 235 PM MST Fri Jun 14 2024

SYNOPSIS

Temperatures remain above average through the weekend with an Excessive Heat warning in effect for portions of southeastern Arizona. Temperatures decrease a bit early next week before likely rising again by Thursday. Moisture may begin to increase late next week which would bring the potential for more active weather.

DISCUSSION

While an upper ridge is centered to the south, a shortwave and jet streak were crossing the northern periphery. This shortwave has pushed earlier moisture out of southeastern Arizona, while additionally creating breezy conditions in far eastern portions of the southeast. Mid-level heights will rise following the exit of this shortwave, which will bring temperatures up a few degrees again this weekend.

The Red Flag Warning remains in effect this afternoon for dry and breezy conditions in lower elevations of Cochise, Graham, and Greenlee counties. Then this weekend, an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for portions of southeastern Arizona that will see afternoon highs generally exceed 105 degrees.

Into early next week, flow aloft will strengthen as western CONUS troughing nudges out the southern ridge. This will bring temperatures down a few degrees (though still likely remaining above normal) as well as likely increase winds Monday afternoon.
There remains a bit of disagreement in the surface wind potential with the GFS MOS being more aggressive than other guidance.
Current NBM guidance for Monday ranges from 10-17 kts with a few isolated spots reaching 20 kts, which looks reasonable given the uncertainty between more deterministic guidance. If winds do come up bit more then fire weather would be a concern.

Confidence is increasing in the development of broad, anomalously strong ridging over the central to eastern CONUS by Thursday.
With southeastern Arizona looking to be on the western periphery, high temperatures should rise into excessive thresholds again Thursday and Friday. Current NBM probabilities have even the coldest solutions (NBM 5th percentile) exceeding 100-105 Thursday afternoon. Under this ridging, low to mid level southeasterly flow should develop and begin to bring in richer moisture. GEFS-EPS both indicate rising probabilities for precipitable water exceeding 1 inch from late this next week through next weekend.
Though still just beyond the reach of the seven day forecast, the NBM is bringing at least slight chances of precipitation into southeastern Arizona by next Friday.

AVIATION
Valid through 16/00Z.

SKC through the forecast period. SFC winds SWLY/WLY 10 to 20 kts and gusts to around 30 kts through 15/03Z. Terminals east of KALK and KE77 can expect winds on the higher end. SFC winds then subside to generally less than 12 kts. Tomorrow, SFC winds NWLY/WLY after 15/16Z with speeds of 10-15 kts and gusts around 20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER

Hot and dry conditions continue this weekend. Winds should be lighter but typical afternoon breeziness is still expected.
Minimum relative humidities this weekend will range from 4 to 9 percent in the lower elevations and 9 to 14 percent in the mountains. Winds should come up on Monday, though at this moment still look likely to remain just below critical thresholds. This day will need watching for fire weather conditions if winds increase.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ504>506-509.

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ152.

Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM MST Saturday for AZZ501-502.




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Tucson, AZ,




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