Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tucson Estates, AZ

DISCUSSION
The east wind event is well underway with max wind gusts since midnight ranging from 50 mph to a few isolated gusts of 80 mph. The strongest gusts 70-80 mph have all been on the northwest side of mountains, mainly in the Saddlebrooke area, Kielberg Canyon in the Galiuros, and in the Santa Ritas.
These winds have also led to areas of blowing dust and haze across southeast Arizona.

At the surface a very strong area of high pressure is centered over eastern Colorado and will slowly move southward. The pressure gradient will remain very strong over the region through Saturday afternoon then begin to weaken. There is also a cutoff low centered just off the coast of northern Baja that will remain over that general area into Sunday.

This afternoon winds have weakened some thanks to daytime mixing and perhaps less mountain wave action as the ridgetop inversion weakens. However this will be shortlived as winds will increase again after the sun goes down with sustained speeds generally 30-45 mph and gusts 50-75 mph. Again the strongest winds are expected to be on the northwest side of mountain ranges as the inversion reasserts itself allowing for mountain wave trapping and downsloping. REFS probabilities for 65+ mph wind gusts for these areas this evening and tonight are 30-70 percent. No changes to the Wind Advisory or High Wind Warning. The HWW is in effect until 5 AM Saturday and Wind Advisory is in effect from 5 AM Saturday to 2 PM Saturday.

The cutoff low near Baja has started to draw up moisture from the remnants of Simon as evidenced by showers and thunderstorms currently ongoing in northern Sonora. Hi-res models keep this activity south of the international border today, but can't rule out a weak shower or two over western Pima County this afternoon or evening. Saturday moisture continues to stream in and rain chances increase as the cutoff low edges eastward. Rain and thunderstorms chances will mainly be confined to areas from Tucson west Saturday. Sunday rain chances expand to cover most of southeast Arizona. QPF looks relatively light with totals Saturday-Sunday up to 0.25" possible.

Next week the moisture sticks around and the closed low over Baja opens up and flattens out. At the same time a Pacific low moves into the Pacific Northwest then moves south along the west coast. This system will tap into the moisture leading to continued daily rain and thunderstorm chances for most of next week. Thanks to the progressive pattern high temperatures stay below normal over the next 7 days.

AVIATION
Valid through 18/00Z.
Skies will be SKC for the majority of the fcst pd with FEW-SCT clouds 6k-10k from KTUS- KOLS W aft 16/21Z. However lofted dust to around 3k ft AGL will lead to reduced slantwise visibility through the overnight hours. SFC winds ELY/SELY 25-40 kts with gusts 45-60 kts. This will be a mountain-wave pattern, with very strong descending winds occuring on the leeward side of the higher terrain. Winds begin to slowly decrease after 17/18Z.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Temperatures will remain below normal through this weekend. Very strong east to southeast winds continue today into Saturday. These winds are expected to be especially strong and potentially damaging. Locations on the lee-side of the higher terrain, terrain gaps, and east-to-west oriented valleys will be susceptible to the strongest winds this morning. For these areas expect speeds 35-45 mph with gusts 55-75 mph this evening and tonight, then 25-35 mph with gusts 50-60 elsewhere.
Minimum relative humidity remains above 25-40 percent through the weekend. There will also be a 20-50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday into next week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Saturday for AZZ503>509- 511>514.
Wind Advisory until 2 PM MST Saturday for AZZ502-515.
Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 2 PM MST Saturday for AZZ503>509- 511>514.