Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tucson Estates, AZ

DISCUSSION

The upper level pattern today is characterized by amplified flow with a stout eastern Pacific ridge just off the west coast and a deep trough through the central to eastern United States. A subtle embedded shortwave was passing through the northerly flow over the Rockies today, bringing a weak backdoor cold front into the eastern counties of southeastern Arizona. Highs today will be several degrees cooler than yesterday in those eastern locations, otherwise similar temperatures to yesterday persist from Tucson- Nogales west.

Over the next several days the upper level ridge will gradually track east, with the high center moving through southern California Wednesday and over southwest Arizona Thursday and Friday. The forecast strength of this ridge is highlighted by 500mb heights more commonly seen well into the summer, which will deliver record smashing high temperatures across the region during the second half of the week. From Thursday through the weekend highs 20 to 25 degrees above normal are expected, with temperatures likely peaking Friday and Saturday. Widespread 95 to at least 105 degree highs in desert locations through this period will deliver moderate to major HeatRisk, especially given the early nature of this heat. The Extreme Heat Watch has been upgraded to a Warning for Thursday through Sunday. A number of daily records will be broken as well as Tucson's record high for the month of March (99 degrees set March 26, 1988) and the earliest 100 degree high of the year for Tucson (current record April 11, 2025).

Early next week the upper level ridge flattens but sticks around the region, with the center moving over northern Mexico. This "cools" temperatures down in the forecast, though highs 15 to 20 degrees above normal are still likely.

AVIATION
Valid through 18/00Z.

FEW-SCT high level cirrus through the forecast period. Surface winds east of Tucson will be southeasterly 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts this afternoon with the strongest winds in KSAD. From Tucson west, northwesterly surface winds around 10 kts. Winds then light and terrain driven after 17/02Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER

Building high pressure from the west will bring progressively hotter temperatures to southeastern Arizona over the next several days. Significant heat is on top for the second half of the week into the weekend as highs will become 20 to 25 degrees above normal. Winds through the remainder of the work week will generally be under 10 mph with a few afternoon gusts to 20 mph.
Breezier conditions possible this weekend into early next week.
Minimum RHs 8-18 percent areawide through the middle of the week, then lowering into the single digits late this week into this weekend.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Thursday to 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ501>509.