Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Tucson Estates, AZ

DISCUSSION
An upper low will move from the Pacific Northwest today across the northern tier of states on Thursday/Friday. A well defined trough axis associated with this system will stay to our north across the Great Basin as the upper low pushes east. The main impact across southeast Arizona will be increased wind speeds on Thursday and Friday. Expect south-southwest winds of 12-20 mph and gusts to 25-35 mph areawide on Thursday, with southwest-west winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to 25-35 mph to the east of Tucson on Friday.
Near critical fire weather conditions are expected east of Tucson Thursday and Friday afternoon's, mainly in Greenlee, Graham and Cochise counties. High temperatures today and Friday will be a couple degrees below normal, with highs a couple degrees above normal Thursday and Saturday.

This weekend through early next week ridging will take place across the Intermountain West, with a strong Pacific upper low sitting off the West Coast. At time same time, surface high pressure will build down the front range of the Rockies into west/central Texas Sunday into Monday, resulting in a strong pressure gradient setting up over southeast Arizona and western New Mexico. This will bring gusty east to southeast winds of 15-20 mph and gusts to 25-35 mph to locations prone to easterly winds across southeast Arizona. Winds at this time look the strongest in the Gila River Valley, where southeast winds of 20-30 mph and gusts to around 40 mph will be possible. High temperatures will warm to 4-6 degrees above normal Sunday through early next week,

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AVIATION
Valid through 17/00Z.
Clear skies/SKC conditions thru 16/03Z. Aft 16/03Z, FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the remainder of the forecast period. SFC wind WLY/NWLY at 6-12 kts thru 16/02Z. SFC wind between 16/02Z and 16/17Z less than 10 kts and variable in direction. Aft 16/17Z, increasing SFC wind with SLY/SWLY SFC wind at 12-18 kts and gusts to 20-28 kts by 16/19Z and continuing thru the end of the forecast cycle.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
A Pacific storm system will move to our north on Thursday and Friday, resulting in strong and gusty winds. RH values will meet critical fire weather thresholds. However, wind speeds are expected to remain below critical criteria, with near critical fire weather conditions across the eastern half of southeast Arizona (Greenlee, Graham and Cochise counties) Thursday and Friday. There may be an isolated location or two in these eastern areas that meet Red Flag criteria for an hour or so mid to late afternoon. Light winds then return on Saturday along with single digit RH values.
Gusty east-southeast winds (15-25 mph and gusts up to 40 mph) are forecast Sunday into Monday morning. Wind speeds may be strong enough in the Gila River Valley on Sunday to exceed critical fire weather conditions. Minimum RH values Sunday and Monday will be in the 8-18 percent range.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.