Sunrise 5:22 AM   Sunset 7:18 PM Moonrise 3:04 PM   Moonset 2:42 AM

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FXUS65 KTWC 180857 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 157 AM MST Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry with higher temperatures this weekend. A weak trough will bring temperatures down to near-normal early next week with breezy afternoon winds.

DISCUSSION
A shortwave ridge will push temperatures to around 5-8 degrees above average into Monday. Keeping an eye out for Tucson possibly hitting the first 100 degree day of the year today.

A broad trough is developing through the Great Basin and much of the intermountain west, with a weak low expected to be drawn into the base of the trough from the eastern Pacific. This should bring breezy winds to the area Monday afternoon, with a few buildups possible near the mountains late Monday into Monday evening. PoPs are low to nonexistent with limited available moisture currently in the forecast. However, we continue to see very interesting NAEFS mean integrated water vapor transport trends into our corner of the state for Monday and Monday evening to go along with the breezy gradient winds.

A broad zonal flow by mid week with weak troughiness again through much of the region later in the week should keep temperatures within a few degrees of climo most of next week.

AVIATION
Valid through 19/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL primarily between 18/12Z and 18/21Z.
From KTUS east, FEW Cumulus around 8-10k ft AGL between 18/20Z and 19/03Z. SFC winds light and variable this morning becoming SWLY thru WNWLY at 7-15 kts with a few gusts up to 25 kts from 18/17Z thru 19/04. Thereafter, winds diminish to less than 12 kts and variable in direction.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry conditions continue this weekend with min RHs in the single digits for the lower valleys and the teens for the higher terrain. Temperatures this weekend approach the high 90s for much of the valleys, with Saturday being the hottest day, before dropping to near normal by Tuesday. Westerly 20-foot winds will generally follow diurnal trends through the beginning of next week with gusty afternoon winds (less than 30 mph). However, Monday and Tuesday will have the strongest 20-foot winds due to a passing system to our north (wind gusts up to 35 mph). In addition, there is potential for isolated dry thunderstorms Monday.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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