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FXUS65 KTWC 082036 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 136 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2023

SYNOPSIS
Cooler temperatures through the weekend, with high temperatures right around normal. Temperatures warm back up to above normal levels early to mid next week, with another brief cool down late next week. Dry conditions persist through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION
Sunny skies across southeast Arizona this afternoon with temperatures just a little bit above normal for this time of year as a weather system passes by to our north along the Great Basin into the Four Corners region. This system is resulting in a modest increase in breezes east of Tucson this afternoon.

Slightly cooler temperatures (around normal for this time of year)
will be with us this weekend as the flow becomes more northerly on Saturday, then transitioning to more northeasterly to easterly by Sunday. This flow regime will bring in a very dry airmass as surface dewpoints crash into the single digits for many locales by late Saturday. As surface high pressure builds down the southern Rockies late Saturday into Sunday, that will tighten up the pressure gradient resulting in gusty east to southeast winds, peaking Sunday morning and then gradually tapering off Sunday afternoon. Wind speeds of 15-25 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph are expected in the areas most typically susceptible to east winds. While chilly morning temperatures are expected Saturday and Sunday morning, widespread freezes will be in the usually colder valleys to the south and east of Tucson. For the lower elevations and deserts including the Tucson Metro, only the typical coldest spots near washes will be around freezing.

A zonal flow with brief warming is expected early next week before the next trough and mid/upper low impacts the area next Wednesday/Thursday. Latest ensemble trends with this system continue to keep the bulk of the moisture to the north and east of our forecast area with 20 to 30 percent precipitation chances for the White Mountains while the remainder of the forecast area stays dry.
Temperatures for the second half of next week will be near to slightly above normal.



AVIATION
Valid through 10/00Z.
SKC-SCT cirrus clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the forecast period. SFC wind WLY/NWLY thru 09/02Z, then less than 12 kts and variable in thru 09/16Z, becoming NLY/NELY around 10-15 kts thru the end of the forecast period. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
High temperatures will be near normal through the weekend, before warming back up to 3-7 degrees above normal early to mid next week. Min RH values this afternoon will be in the 15-25 percent range in the valleys and 22-32 percent in the mountains.
Drier air overspreads the area Saturday into Sunday, continuing through mid next week, with min RH values of 7-15 percent in the valleys and 15-25 percent in the mountains. Elevated 20-foot winds from the west to northwest at 12-17 mph are expected this afternoon mainly to the east of Tucson. Winds then shift to the northeast at 12-20 mph Saturday, with breezy east-southeast winds Saturday night and Sunday at 15-25 mph and higher gusts in locations exposed to easterly winds. Lighter wind speeds are then expected much of next week. Dry conditions will persist over the next week, except for a slight chance of precipitation in the White Mountains next Wednesday and Thursday.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.

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