Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Willcox, AZ

DISCUSSION
A warming trend will begin today as ridging and higher heights move into the region behind yesterday's trough.
Highs today will be right around normal, increasing to a few degrees above normal Thursday into Saturday. Highs in Tucson during this time period will be right around 90 degrees with the NBM giving about a 75 percent chance each day to reach 90. A weak shortwave, currently near San Francisco, will make its way south through Arizona Friday into Saturday. This won't affect temperatures, but could lead to do some showers and isolated thunderstorms along the Mogollon Rim, which would include northern Graham and Greenlee Counties. Elsewhere in the CWA is expected to be dry. Any precip will be very light with the main threat being lightning, which could potentially cause fire starts. Current NBM PoPs for northern Graham and Greenlee Counties are 20-30 percent Friday and Saturday.

A much stronger low will begin to approach the region Saturday and enter Arizona Sunday. Ensembles show it becoming cut off and sticking around through the first part of next week. Precipitation chances look to stay north of the CWA at this time, although this could change if the low travels further south. The main impact this low will have is to bring strong gusty winds and cooler temperatures. Winds begin to increase Saturday, but will be strongest on Sunday with sustained speeds 20-30 mph and gusts to 45 mph. These winds will help produce widespread critical fire weather conditions. As the weekend approaches fire weather headlines will likely be needed for Sunday. Breezy winds linger Monday, but right now look to below critical thresholds.
Temperatures drop below normal Sunday into the middle of next week with Tucson possibly seeing sub-80 degree highs Monday and Tuesday. Best chances for this look to be Monday with NBM probabilities for high temps below 80 degrees around 80 percent.

AVIATION
Valid through 01/12Z.
SKC through the afternoon then SCT-BKN clouds AOA 20k ft AGL after 01/00Z. SFC winds less than 10 kts this morning becoming WLY this afternoon with speeds of 8-12 kts and gusts 20 kts. After 01/02Z, SFC winds will slowly diminish to less than 10 kts.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Winds through Friday will generally be 10-15 mph with occasional afternoon gusts. Temperatures start to trend warmer today becoming a few degrees above normal Thursday into Saturday. Friday and Saturday afternoons there will be a 20-30 percent chance for dry lightning in the White Mountains as a weak weather system moves through. This weekend a stronger storm system will move in from the Pacific leading to windy conditions with increasing potential for fire weather concerns. At this time, the strongest winds look to be Sunday when the greatest potential to see widespread critical fire weather conditions is expected.
Residual gusty winds will continue especially east of Tucson on Monday as much cooler temperatures move in area-wide.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.