DISCUSSION
A clear sky prevailed across southern Arizona per latest satellite imagery. Another hot September day on tap today under abundant sunshine.

Thursday and Friday: Temperatures retreat back toward normal by Friday while to our south we will be watching tropical moisture push north from a tropical system, currently developing off the swrn Mexican coast, that will move north toward the Baja tip.

This weekend: An upper level trof moving into California will help advect tropical moisture into southern Arizona. Ensemble means have PW values increasing to between 125% and 150% above normal bringing increased precipitation chances to the area, which is currently in the 25% to 50% range, and likely to go higher as we get closer to the weekend. There is large spreads in QPF values with GEFS the wettest, EPS the driest and GEPS in the middle. This will lead to many different storm total QPF values being depicted across the forecast area from the deterministic models and ensemble means over the next several days. Confidence moderate that most areas will see rain, but low on how much.

Monday: Considerable uncertainty exist in the model world on how fast moisture is pushed out of the area as a stronger Pacific weather system moves into the western US. Confidence low. Winds will be breezy at times.

Tuesday: Dry and breezy under west-southwest flow aloft.

High temperatures this weekend into early next week will be right around normal.

AVIATION
Valid through 12/12Z.
Clear skies/SKC conditions thru 11/17Z and then again aft 12/04Z.
Between 11/17Z and 12/04Z, FEW-SCT clouds at 10k-13k ft AGL mainly east of KTUS. SFC wind 10 kts or less, favoring a SWLY/WLY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours. Localized afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
Dry conditions are expected across southeast Arizona through Thursday. Min RH values through Thursday will be between 7-15 percent in valley locations and 14-25 percent in the mountains. Increasing moisture Friday through Monday will result in a chance of showers and thunderstorms, along with minimum RH values increasing into the 20-30 percent range in the valleys and even higher in the mountains. 20-foot winds will be less than 15 mph and diurnally driven today. South to southwest winds of 15 to 20 mph and higher gusts are expected Thursday and Friday. Lighter winds return this weekend, with the exception of gusty and erratic winds in/near thunderstorms. Stronger southwest winds will start off next week, although with the higher moisture values still in place, critical fire weather thresholds are not expected to be met.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.