Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Catalina Foothills, AZ

DISCUSSION
Infrared and water vapor satellite imagery this afternoon shows a cut-off low west of the Baja Spur with high clouds moving into the area. At the low levels, visible imagery showed widely scattered cumulus clouds developing as PWAT values slowly increase. At the surface, dewpoints were in the 20s and 30s which is up 7 to 20 degrees, depending on location.

Over the next 12-15 hours, or thru 5 am Mon, the cut-off low will wobble and retrograde a bit west as vort maxs rotate around it.
This feature then begins to lift E-NE and be over the Baja Spur by late Monday afternoon and then move across northern Sonora thru Tuesday while weakening. Moisture advection out ahead of the low will bring PWAT values up into the 0.50" to 0.80" area Monday into Tuesday which is 175-225% above normal for this time in March.

Showers moving into or develop west of Kitt Peak between 5 am and 11 am Monday with areal coverage increasing Monday afternoon into Monday night as the upper low moves into Sonora Mexico. Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms are expected with some of these storms producing small hail. Shower activity on Tuesday will gradually diminish from west to east as the upper low moves toward the Texes Big Bend. Precipitation totals for this event are forecast to range from 0.10" to 0.40" in the valleys and up to 0.75" in the mountains. Due to the warm nature of this system snow levels will be high with up to 2" for the mountain peaks.

Days 4-7 (Thu-Sun)
Building upper ridge will bring well above normal and near record high temperatures (Fri-Sun) to the area with the daily highs mostly running 10 to 18 degrees above normal. No changes were made to the NBM baseline forecast.

8-14 day outlook (Mon Mar 16 to Sun Mar 22)
Temperature: Likely above normal (90-100%) with record or near record highs on 16th to 18th.
Precipitation: Likely below normal (40-60%)

AVIATION
Valid through 10/00Z.
FEW cumulus clouds 8-10k ft AGL with cirrus level clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru 09/12z. Aft 12z west of KTUS clouds 8-10k ft AGL bcmg SCT-BKN with isolated -SHRA dvlpg aft 09/15z with areal cvrg of SHRA incrg thru the end of valid pd. SFC winds ELY/SELY 8-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts diminshing aft 09/03z and bcmg SLY less than 10 kts thru 09/15z. Aft 09/15z, SFC winds SLY/SWLY 10-20 kts with higher gusts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
A weather system west of Baja California this evening will move across northern Sonora Monday night into Tuesday. This system will bring scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms and high elevation snow to the forecast area Monday into Tuesday. Temperatures will be around to slightly below normal with this weather system. Dry conditions return Wednesday then temperatures warm up to well above normal Friday into next weekend. Gusty easterly winds to 15 mph this evening becoming southerly Monday and westerly on Tuesday. Normal diurnally driven winds return to the area after Wednesday.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.