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FXUS65 KTWC 301001 AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 301 AM MST Thu Nov 30 2023

SYNOPSIS
A pair of storm systems will bring a chance of valley rain and mountain snow this morning, and then again tonight through Friday night. Much cooler into the weekend, with cold overnight lows over the weekend into early next week. Dry and warmer much of the rest of next week.

DISCUSSION
A few showers around the area this morning as the first in a pair of weather systems pushes across Arizona. Mainly light precip for valleys, with 1 or 2 inches of snow in the mountains. Breezy at times with a modest southwesterly to westerly gradient enhancement. We'll see a break from later in the morning through the afternoon hours as this first impulse pushes quickly east of the area.

A stronger and cooler system digging down from the northwest will push into the area tonight and Friday, exiting the area to the east Friday night. Better dynamics should bring a better chance of showers with some light to moderate accumulations generally below 1/4 of an inch in most valley locations. An efficient process for higher elevation snow with snow ratios as high as 15-1 should push us into advisory level accumulations for at least the mountains of Graham and Greenlee counties northeast of Tucson; with 6 to 10 inches expected. Further south, something like 3-6 inches in the mountains for much of the rest of SE AZ. Mt Lemmon could end up on the higher end of that and may eventually need to be included in the advisory.

Much cooler through the weekend with early morning lows over the weekend and early next week probably the coolest of the season so far. First freeze possible for the Oracle area and other locations around eastern Pinal county. A few outlying spots around eastern Pima county could make a brief run toward 32 as well.

High pressure will bring dry and warmer conditions next week.

AVIATION
Valid through 01/12.
SCT-BKN 6-10K ft MSL with ISOLD to SCT -SHRA. MTNS partially to mostly obscured at times in clouds and SHRA/SHSN through 30/16Z.
West to southwest SFC winds 5-15 kts increasing to 10-18 kts after 30/18Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

FIRE WEATHER
A two-part storm system will bring colder temperatures, breezy winds, and a chance of valley rain and mountain snow showers at times this morning, and again tonight through Friday night. The snow level will drop to around 6,000 ft by Thursday morning. Clearing, dry and colder than normal Saturday through Monday with a warming trend next week.

TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM MST Saturday for AZZ510-511.

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